Archive for Asdrubal Cabrera

So it looks like Dustin Pedroia might be out for the year now that his foot has remained sore. His owners are left crying into their caps, and looking for replacements. Since it’s normally time for a middle infield update anyway, this works out well. We’ll look at possible replacements based on the size of your league. The benchmarks come from Jeff Zimmerman’s article here.

Shallow Leagues (58% owned or less)
If you are lucky, Omar Infante (60% owned) will be out there for you. He is one of the better possibilities for replacing the little-bit-of-power, little-bit-of-speed thing that Pedroia had going, and he is also atop one of the better lineups in the National League. But Infante doesn’t quite hit our benchmark, so Alberto Callaspo (46% owned) has a little more pop than Asdrubal Cabrera (44% owned) and might therefore be a better replacement for the balding Boston ballplayer. Though neither has shown much power or speed this year, it’s Callaspo that has had the best power year (.156 ISO in 2009) between the two and Cabrera that has had the best speed year (5.9 speed score in 2009). Depending on your priorities, they make decent stop-gaps.

12-Team Leagues (26% owned or less)
The options on this level are Orlando Hudson and Ryan Raburn, and both have a little more power than the guys above. Raburn’s currently showing a .176 ISO and has a .186 career number in that category, so he’s the guy to pick up for power. With his strikeout rate (26.2% this year, 25.9% career), he probably won’t put up a Pedroia-an batting average, and his speed has declined from about average (5.1 in 2008, 5.0 is average) to below average (3.8 in 2010) in three years. Hudson will give you a decent batting average as he has been within spitting distance of his .282 career batting average in most years. Unfortunately, he’s in the midst of a four-year decline in his power and now owns a poor ISO (.118). While his speed score is still above average (5.6), he hasn’t cracked double-digit in steals since 2007. Either way, Hudson is the closer comp to the Boston second baseman.

20-Team Leagues (1% owned or less)
Yes, Blake DeWitt is playing every day and is atop a lineup, but he’s also owned in 3% of Yahoo leagues, doesn’t have much pop or speed, and that Cubs lineup isn’t anywhere close to the Red Sox lineup. Well, none of your options in leagues of this size will come close to Pedroia’s excellence, so let’s just get that out of the way. No, of the second basemen owned in 1% of leagues (or less), it’s Chris Getz that is the most interesting. He’s mostly wrested the second base job away from Mike Aviles, but he’s just about as flawed as the man he replaces (or worse). He has no power to speak of (.040 ISO this year, .069 career, .150 ISO is average), and now that he’s 641 plate appearances into his career and showing the same walk rate every year (7.8% this year, 7.3% career), we can say he doesn’t really get on base at an average rate (8.5% walk rate is average this year). Well, he does do one thing. His speed score has stayed above average every year and is decent this year (5.5). He has some wheels. His 13 stolen bases (87% success rate) even means that he could equal a fictionally healthy Pedroia the rest of the way in one category. Unfortunately for deep league owners, it’s just one category.

I still can’t find anything, and my earthly belongings are on a truck somewhere between New York and California – with New York being more likely despite me being in California. Ain’t moving grand? That said, let’s get on to the meat of the matter. To the Waiver Wire, dudes!

Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians (42%)
This should serve as a reminder that Cabrera is still alive. The team has already begun talking about a rehab assignment, and he may be back soon after the All-Star break. Maybe the injury will sap some of his power, but it’s not like Cabrera was smacking the stuffing out of the ball anyway (.081 ISO) and power is not really his game. His feet should be fine – although one stolen base in 140+ 2010 plate appearances doesn’t inspire confidence. So wait, why do we like him? Well, Cabrera can put up a nice batting average (.287 career) and plays at a tough position. There are plenty of owners out there looking at worse situations at shortstop, and if they wanted to get ahead of the game and owned an open DL spot, they could drop their current shortstop, pick up Cabrera, and then pick up Jason Donald (1% owned in Yahoo leagues) for the meantime. Emulating the Cleveland Indians isn’t usually the way to go, but in this case, it should make for a player with a decent batting average at the very least. While Donald’s walk rate is not inspiring (4.9%), he doesn’t strike out much (18.2%) and his BABIP (.330) is not out of line for a man with his above-average wheels or current line drive percentage (22.9%). It looks like he can continue putting up the stats that he’s sporting right now in the short-term future.

Jayson Nix, Cleveland Indians (1% owned)
Hey, it’s Cleveland Indians’ Middle Infield Day! Chalk this up as a win for deep league owners, as most mixed leaguers will want to stay clear of the Cleveland ‘situation.’ Carson Cistulli noted that a) Cleveland’s lineup is wicked young; and b) Nix will be in the mix going forward. Young lineups and bad teams mean opportunities for fantasy managers, and if Nix wins the playing time at second base, he will be more than relevant in deeper leagues given his ability to put up above-average power (.185 ISO this year, .190 last) for a middle infielder. He even has a little speed (10 stolen bases, 2 caught stealing in 2009). Donald will shift over from shortstop once Cabrera returns and should give Nix a run for his money, but at some point, Nix’ batted ball luck will have to change. Do you know that his career BABIP is .234? That’s putrid. Even coming in 451 plate appearances, that is not sustainable. Yes, he’s a fly-ball hitter (48.3% career), and fly balls have worse BABIPs, but this is just ridiculous. Perhaps he needs to work on his line drive stroke (13.1% career, 10.6% this year), but the best news right now is that he has playing time for two weeks and the chance to catch fire. Long term, it’s either Donald that wins at the position, ostensibly for his defense, or as Satchel Price pointed out in his excellent “2013” series, Jason Kipnis for his good-looking bat.

A month has gone by since we last updated these rankings, but they haven’t changed too much. The position continues to be one of the toughest to fill in fantasy sports, and the bottom half of this list is comprised of some imperfect candidates, to say the least. But every team needs a shortstop, so let’s take a look.

The Big Three:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.367 wOBA, .402 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.376 wOBA, .369 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.349 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Jimmy Rollins has to drop out of this tier because of his injury issues. We don’t like to Wally Pipp anyone, but the reality of the situation is that he’s declining physically and his game relies on his athleticism. He’s not all about working the count and getting on base, so if the power and the legs start slipping, it could get a little ugly for Rollins owners.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.469 wOBA, .359 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
5. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.295 wOBA, .353 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.344 wOBA, .336 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
7. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.377 wOBA, .359 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.356 wOBA, .341 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

This tier seems pretty uncontroversial. Some may still believe in Rollins, or have given up on Jose Reyes, but this is a solid group of shortstops. They shouldn’t hurt a fantasy team, in other words. Reyes may actually be the lightning rod for discussion, especially placed above a young phenom like Elvis Andrus, but he still retains more power upside than the younger shortstop, and there were some things to like with what Reyes was doing in the second half of May. If he can’t up the walk rate and rediscover his power stroke, though, he’ll move down the list. Andrus might also have some batting average regression coming. Stephen Drew is having a fine season, but with barely-above average power and little speed, he’s just missing those valuable counting stats to move up the list.

The Leftovers:
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.326 wOBA, .328 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
10. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.299 wOBA, .328 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
11. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.290 wOBA, .327 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
12. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.298 wOBA, .332 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta (.291 wOBA, .340 ZiPS wOBA)
14. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.329 wOBA, .352 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
15. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles (.288 wOBA, .316 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Alex Gonzalez, Toronto (.348 wOBA, .300 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Rafael Furcal and Jason Bartlett drop to this tier for different reasons. Furcal rewarded his owners with more time on the DL, and without the stolen bases he begins to look like an empty batting average. Bartlett isn’t even giving the batting average part of that equation, though, and would drop further down on the list if the rest of the list weren’t so craptastic in its own right. Asdrubal Cabrera will be back on the list when he returns in two months from his forearm fracture. Ryan Theriot, however, has to overcome a platoon situation at second base before he’ll be a valuable shortstop again. An honorable mention goes to Alcides Escobar, who has shown little flashes of his potential and has batted in the second hole some this past month, but the fact that he’s losing starts to Craig Counsell can’t be ignored.

Don’t expect to see Asdrubal Cabrera take the field again anytime soon, as the switch-hitting shortstop suffered a broken left forearm last evening against the Rays. Cabrera collided with 3B Jhonny Peralta on a Hank Blalock ground ball hit up the middle (the infield was shifted for the lefty pull hitter). There’s no firm estimate on how much time he’ll miss, but Cabrera is likely headed for surgery.

The former M’s prospect was off to a mild start in 2010, batting .287/.322/.368 (.303 wOBA) in 149 plate appearances. Cabrera’s plate discipline was off-kilter, as he swung at 28.5 percent of pitches outside of the zone and took a hack at just 59.6 percent of in-zone pitches. For comparison, Cabrera’s career O-Swing is 24.7, and his Z-Swing is 65.7. Chasing more offerings off the dish and keeping the bat on the shoulder more often when the pitcher puts one in the strike zone is a recipe for fewer walks, and Cabrera’s rate of free passes taken was down to 4.7. Also, after nabbing 17 bases in 21 tries in 2009, Cabrera had just one SB and 2 CS in 2010.

In his place, the Indians will turn to a combination of Luis Valbuena and the recently recalled Jason Donald.

Valbuena, 24, has a career .235/.301/.387 triple-slash in 544 major league PA. The lefty hitter, himself a former Mariner, has shown decent secondary skills for a middle infielder (8.3 BB%, .152 ISO).

However, Valbuena has punched out 24.3 percent of the time and he has a track record of scuffling against southpaw pitching. During his minor league career, Valbuena had a .241/.319/.311 line vs. LHP. His managers have gone to great lengths to shield him from lefties in the majors: just 12 percent of his big league PA have come against same-side pitching. Questionable D at the keystone won’t help his big for more playing time, either (career -9.3 UZR/150 at 2B, and ugly numbers at short in a small sample of playing time). ZiPS projects a .247/.317/.377 line for Valbuena for the rest of the 2010 season, with a .308 wOBA.

Donald, meanwhile, was a part of the underwhelming collection of talent Cleveland acquired from Philadelphia in exchange for Cliff Lee in July of 2009. The Arizona product has a career .284/.371/.434 line as a minor leaguer, with a 10.3 percent walk rate, a 23 percent K rate and a .150 Isolated Power. Donald was off to a .277/.396/.423 start at Triple-A Columbus in 2010. Neither ZiPS (.290 wOBA) nor CHONE (.299 wOBA) had especially sunny major league forecasts for him.

The 25-year-old ranked as Baseball America’s #69 prospect prior to 2009, but he missed time with left knee and back injuries last year and slipped to 15th in the Indians’ system before 2010. Almost exclusively a shortstop before this season, Donald had mostly been playing second base with Columbus. BA called him a “fringy defensive shortstop whose range and overall defensive skill set might be better suited for second base.”

While the Tribe will turn to Valbuena and Donald, fantasy owners seeking to fill the void created by Cabrera’s injury should look elsewhere. Shortstops with low Yahoo ownership rates include: Everth Cabrera (11%), Alcides Escobar (13%) and Ian Desmond (14%, and also has 2B eligibility). Maicer Izturis (19%) qualifies at short, second and third, and he could nab a good chunk of Brandon Wood’s playing time at the hot corner once he returns from a shoulder injury.

Time to take a look at the shortstops and see if anything changed in the first couple of weeks. I’ll be alternating between the middle infield spots every weekend, just as an fyi. We’ll also use projected wOBA one last week.

The Big Four:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.410 wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.393 wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.316 wOBA)
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.390 wOBA)

Jeter moves into the top group here. This is not because of his batting average – it’s a little BABIP-inflated even for a player with a player with a .360 career BABIP. He moves into the top because he’s showing (so far) that he’s still rejuvenated. The two stolen bases and two home runs in 10 games show that he’s still going to take off on the basepaths and that a 15/20 season looks probable. Add that to all his runs and RBI in that lineup, and his batting average, and you’ve got a top player once again. Rollins could drop out of this group – his injury doesn’t help, and may affect his steals totals this year – but he’s still a top option until he shows that he’s not going to attempt many steals when he returns.

The Next Best Thing:
5. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.342 wOBA)
6. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.321 wOBA)
7. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.389 wOBA)
8. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.316 wOBA)
9. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.322 wOBA)

There’s a lot of movement in this tier. Reyes moves to the front – and is the best candidate for replacing Rollins in the top tier – because he’s healthy. Two stolen base attempts in the first ten games is not enough to move him higher, but it still counts as a good sign. Once he starts taking off more, and shows a little more life in his bat, Reyes should re-join the top group.

Like most of us predicted, Bartlett is indeed regressing. But if he gets his walk rate back up to historical levels, the hope is still there that he can put a nice batting average and plus steals together at a tough position. Drew moves ahead of him because he looks like he is finally putting together the better parts of his game at one time. Once the line drives re-appear, he could have a career year. Furcal joins the group more because he’s playing every day and has four stolen bases than because of his gaudy batting average. His upside looks a little like Bartlett’s at this point in their respective careers.

Andrus joining the middle group may be premature, but he’s playing so well, and Alexei Ramirez so poorly, that not making this move seems more radical than promoting Andrus. He is hitting .323 and walking 10+% of the time. But on the negative side of the ledger stand his single stolen base and his inflated BABIP (.400), meaning the batting average may come down and he needs to steal more to move up any further. If Bartlett doesn’t pick up his walk rate, and Andrus keeps hitting frozen ropes, we may see a flip-flop there.

The Leftovers:
10. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.319 wOBA)
11. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.354 wOBA)
12. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta (.357 wOBA)
13. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles AL (.339 wOBA)
14. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (.354 wOBA)
15. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.344 wOBA)

Cabrera and Escobar are not yet capitalizing on the gains they have made in their early careers, so the surprising repeating veteran Scutaro jumps ahead in the rankings. Scu-Scu-Scutaro is still not swinging at anything outside the zone, which bodes well for his newfound patient approach. Aybar moves up because he’s showing a nice walk rate in the early going (13%), but this part of the rankings has been generally underwhelming. Perhaps Alcides Escobar can begin stealing bases so that he can supplant someone here?

A while back, we checked the position at second base and outlined some tiers that should help you choose between options in your draft. Unfortunately, this position doesn’t produce ADP values as cleanly as some other positions (and we like our values clean).

Take the first two tiers, for example. It would be nice to pick the lowest-drafted second baseman in the first two tiers, Brian Roberts (40.69 ADP), and just declare him the value of the two tiers. The problem is that Roberts has too many question marks to get the (grade A) stamp of approval as a value. For instance, though his ISO was a second-best last year (.168), and it seems to have grown organically (three straight increases), that ISO has famously peaked before (.201 in his 18-home-run 2005 season) and then returned back towards the baseline (.137). He’s 32 and his stolen bases have declined for two straight seasons. Then again, 2008 produced his career-best full-season speed score (7.3), and that wasn’t so long ago. The point is, counting on his for anything more than 12 or so home runs and 30 or so stolen bases probably isn’t a good idea, and those numbers seem a little light for the third round. On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia (37.48 ADP) goes three picks earlier and isn’t going to hit that stolen base number and may only out-homer Roberts by a handful. Maybe Roberts is the actual value here.

There is a lot of questionable power in the next tier. Aaron Hill (46.87 ADP), Robinson Cano (45.83 ADP) and Jose Lopez (123.97 ADP) all had power spikes last year, and their draft positions show the confidence the general public has that the different players will return with good power in 2010. Once again, it’s tempting to take Lopez with the lowest ADP and call him the value – and there are some reasons to believe the power will stick. His ISO, fly ball, and HR/FB rates have all steadily risen over the last three years. The problem is that, with his walk rate (3.7% career), his value is tied up in that power, and his career ISO (.141) is still low enough that it is hard to count on. Why not take Dan Uggla (85.10) a couple rounds earlier so that you can depend on his power (.225 career ISO)? Here it seems that Uggla is the real value in the tier.

The final tier is a rag-tag group, as Asdrubal Cabrera (158.18) and Howie Kendrick (146.64) leading the way, though neither is a lock to hit 15 home runs or stolen bases next year. They’ll have to hit a lot of singles to make up for their shortcomings in those two important fantasy categories. Again here, Clint Barmes (307.61) and Adam Kennedy (327.96) bring up the rear but have too many questions to tout as the values of the tier. Barmes doesn’t walk (4.3%), strikes out a fair amount (22% last year), and though he showed power last year (.195 ISO), his career power is less exciting (.157). He’s also done a lot of jumping around in the power department, and last year may have just defined his upside anyway. Kennedy had a nice year, but despite his 20 stolen bases last year, his speed score was actually below-average. He doesn’t really have a single skill you can count on.

If you’re going to take a plunge, why not take one on Rickie Weeks (212.37 ADP)? Yes, it will cost a healthier pick than Barmes, but we’re still talking about a 19th-round pick in mixed league drafts. His ISO has jumped around some too (.125 – .245), but it’s been trending upwards in a general way. There’s still the upside that he might finally put together one of his better strikeout rates (say, 2008’s 24.2%) with one of his better walk rates (11.8% in 2008) and BABIPs (.313 last year) and get his batting average up past the .250s. We know he has power and speed, and an okay batting average would make him a valuable second baseman, especially in head-to-head leagues. That he might be the value of the final tier should serve as a positional scarcity warning for the position, too.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops and catchers.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

Chase Utley is in a tier of his own. No other second baseman has been able to combine the power and speed and batting average year-in and year-out like the pomade Phillie infielder. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips are missing the batting average and the health, Dustin Pedroia and Brian Roberts are missing the power. That said, these top five second basemen are all reasonably stable players that boast good speed along with varying degrees of power. They just don’t all have the total package like Utley.

The next tier should be the controversial one. While Aaron Hill’s season was one for the ages, there are understandably some doubts about his ability to repeat. He more than doubled his previous career-high HR/FB percentage without really showing a corresponding change in his approach. The most likely scenario is that Hill settles in with similar power to fellow tier-member Robinson Cano. Cano would be higher but since he’s shown that his batting average seems so tied to his BABIP, there’s some rightful nervousness about his ability to repeat his own career year. Dan Uggla and Jose Lopez have similar power and similar batting average issues. Pick the right player during a good BABIP year, and you’ll have a great second baseman with a decent batting average and lots of power. Get the guy in a bad year, and you’ve seen what can happen.

The last tier holds the most risk, as it should be. There are many Asdrubal Cabrera fans, and his double eligibility will get him drafted at one of the keystone positions. The problem is that the speed is somewhat borderline (21/29 in 1000+ at bats) and the power is negligible. Clint Barmes may not succeed on a good percentage of his attempts, and he’s a much more flawed real-life player, but he’s reached heights in power and speed that Cabrera may never. Adam Kennedy had a great year and ended up right around where he was five years ago, a second basemen that can hit double-digit home runs, steal about 20 bags, and hit close to .300. It’s not the same upside as the rest of the guys in the tier, but it seems repeatable. Howie Kendrick and Rickie Weeks probably have the most upside of the tier, but they are quickly running out chances in the minds of fantasy managers. Both made strides in their limited time last year and make for good bench plays in mixed league drafts for managers that got a third- or fourth-tier second baseman as their starter.

Overall, the position seems pretty deep, with empty-batting-average guys numbering #15-18 as backup plans. Once Utley goes, managers might be best served waiting for a second baseman to drop, knowing that they can probably take a shot on a young guy with some upside once the top 12 are gone.

When we checked the position and identified the tiers for shortstops going into next year, some readers thought we should break the list down into AL- and NL-only lists in order to help deeper league managers understand potential late-draft steals at the position. Instead of bogging this post down with lists, though, let’s just comb through shortstops that didn’t quite make our top twelve. We’ll be sure to find some value deeper into the rankings.

Some of the players just missing the cut did so because they got a grade of “incomplete” last year. Those players have to be ranked above those that played the whole year and put together poor campaigns, right?

The most exciting non-top-twelve shortstop would have to be Alcides Escobar if only the Brewers are prepared to hand him the job in 2010. The early prognosis is positive. He played 15 of the Brewer’s last 19 games in 2009 and his capable offense (.304/.333/.368) and okay defense (-5 UZR/150) were good enough to be worth about a million dollars per month. His BABIP (.345) looks high, and next to his xBABIP (.296) shows that his batting average is a little risky. He does reach too much (30%), but at least he puts the ball on the ground (52% in 2009) where his plus speed (42 stolen bases against 10 caught stealings in AAA in 2009) can help him find some hits. Call him slightly riskier than Ryan Theriot, but if he comes at a cheaper price, he has a higher upside given his speed.

Mike Aviles also got an incomplete grade in 2009. After bursting onto the scene in 2008, there were some warning signs that Aviles may have some trouble repeating the performance. The biggest worry about his actual performance in 2009, though, were his plummeting contact rates and rising strikeout rates. Pretty much the best thing that Aviles had going for him was his ability to put wood on the ball in the zone (90.7% in 2008) and not strikeout (13.8% in 2008). Both of these attributes were consistent throughout his minor league career, but they both disappeared in 2009 (85.6% contact rate in the zone, 21.7% strikeout rate). He’ll need to recover his old bat-control ways in order to get his job back. The good news is that there’s only Yuniesky Betancourt and his .639 2009 OPS in his way. Given the fact that Aviles’ stats last year were the outliers when considered against his entire career, there’s at least a decent chance that Aviles puts up a good batting average with a little power somewhere on the infield in 2010.

Asdrubal Cabrera makes an interesting case study. His .362 BABIP last year threatens to put some risk into his best category (batting average) when seen alone. But look at that same number next to his lifetime BABIP (.342) and his xBABIP (.340) and you realize that he’s a speedy guy that may have figured out how to get the most of his hits. Perhaps he does it by favoring the ground game (48% groundballs), which does rob him of some power and leave him with little value if the batting average dives. If he can retain his speed (5.9 speed score in 2009, 5.1 career, 2.7 in his poor 2008 showing), Cabrera is a good mid-round bet to repeat the rest of his 2009 numbers.

Back over the National League for a late-round value, we find a newly minted starting shortstop (and another Cabrera) in San Diego’s Everth Cabrera. On the good side of his ledger is the fact that his organization does not have better options and he showed the ability to get on base (10%) and good speed (25 stolen bases in 33 attempts). There are some negatives. Despite some subjective reports of good defense, his UZR/150 was poor (-10.6). Also, his approach at the plate combines too many strikeouts (23.3%) with a paucity of line drives (14.8%) to produce a bit of a limp-noodle combined line (.255/.342/.361). In fantasy, however, all you have to know is that he has speed and can take a walk. Those stolen bases will give you good return on your investment.

Before the season we wrote a lot of player profiles here at RotoGraphs. The ones I wrote focused on fantasy impacts, frequently mentioning if a player was under or overvalued compared to his ADP. Now that the season is over, I would like to focus on ones that were particularly notable, both for good and bad.

The Poor Predictions

Mike Pelfrey
Prediction: “It’s not out of the question for Pelfrey to be a 15-game winner with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. If he can maintain a 6.00 SO/9 rate, that would give him 133 strikeouts in 200 innings. And that makes him a top-25 starting pitcher.”

Reality: 10 W, 5.03 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 5.22 K/9 (107 Ks in 184.1 IP)

Notes: In six games in May, Pelfrey was 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP. His next lowest ERA month was July’s 4.84 and his next lowest WHIP was the 1.50 he posted in September.

Derrek Lee
Prediction: “Lee is a fringe fantasy starter in a 12-team mixed league. … What HR power Lee does possess at this point seems to be a Wrigley Field illusion.”

Reality: Last Player Picked has Lee as the sixth-best first baseman in 2009. He hit 35 HR this season, with 15 of those coming in road parks.

Notes: At the end of May, this forecast was right on, as Lee had a .248/.325/.411 line through 38 games. From June 1st to the end of the year, Lee hit .327 with 30 HR and 92 RBIs in 103 games.

Garrett Atkins
Prediction: “[I]t makes sense to target Atkins either at the end of the sixth round or beginning of the seventh. This is in line with what he did last year and if he just duplicates what he did in 2008 you are in okay shape. Yet you still have the upside potential of a healthy player not far removed from a $31 season.”

Reality: Atkins was one of the worst players in fantasy this year, with a .226-9-48-37-0 fantasy line.

Notes: There was one brief bright spot this year for Atkins, who hit .327/.393/.509 in June but the rest of the season was horrific.

Jorge Posada
Prediction: “Because of his previous level of performance, Posada has more upside than only a handful of catchers. But he is much more likely to repeat his 2008 numbers, which means fantasy players should look elsewhere.”

Reality: Last Player Picked had Posada as the fifth most valuable fantasy catcher.

Notes: Posada made 88 starts at catcher, his fewest (injury-shortened 2008 aside) since 1998.

Carl Crawford
Prediction: “Before you spend a late-second, early third-round pick on Crawford, be sure you are comfortable projecting the stats for him to return that value…. And before you decide he is a lock to steal 50 bases because of his fabulous success ratios, ask how likely it is that Tampa Bay will allow him to attempt the 60-70 steals he has previously in his career, especially since he no longer slots in as the team’s leadoff hitter.”

Reality: Last Player Picked had Crawford as the 10th-best fantasy hitter. Crawford attempted 76 steals and ended up with 60 SB.

Notes: Crawford had 668 of his 672 PA in the second spot in the lineup.

But there were many good predictions, too, even if the above are the ones that jump immediately to mind.

More Successful Ones

Asdrubal Cabrera
Prediction: “Cabrera will be an afterthought on Draft Day in most mixed leagues next season. But by the end of the season he will be on an active roster in most leagues. He is definitely someone to consider in the final rounds of your draft.”

Reality: He was owned in 84 percent of CBS Sports leagues at the end of the year after starting with an ESPN ADP of 260.

Notes: Cabrera will once again have eligibility at both 2B and SS in 2010.

Ryan Zimmerman
Prediction: “Because of last year’s injury problems and his lack of big HR numbers throughout his career, he’s likely to be under-valued in many drafts. And with a decent chance to approach triple-digits in Runs and RBIs, Zimmerman offers a lot of upside for a player apt to be available in the bottom half of most drafts.”

Reality: Zimmerman ranked as the 17th-best fantasy hitter according to Last Player Picked and finished with 110 R and 106 RBIs.

Notes: After three consecutive seasons of nearly identical HR/FB rates, Zimmerman had a career-best 15.9 percent mark in the category, which led to 33 HR, a personal best.

Prince Fielder
Prediction: “Fielder may be slightly undervalued by the mock drafting crowd (ADP: 26). The mockers prefer Justin Morneau, who on average is going six slots ahead of Fielder. Morneau provided much more value in 2008, but I would prefer Fielder’s power over Morneau’s RBI bat this season.”

Reality: Last Player Picked had Fielder as the fouth-best fantasy hitter while Morneau finished outside the top 50 after his mid-September injury. Fielder finished with 46 HR.

Notes: Fielder led the NL with 141 RBIs.

Cole Hamels
Prediction: “Hamels will have to improve on last year’s outstanding season to be worth a fourth-round pick. And there are enough warning signs around him to make passing on him in that slot an easy choice.”

Reality: Hamels fell off in all four categories from 2008 and was outside of the top 30 pitchers.

Notes: Hamels had an ADP of 41.

Jacoby Ellsbury
Prediction: “Would a 60-SB, 110-R season from Ellsbury be a surprise? Ellsbury is not going to be a big threat in either HR or RBI. But with above average production in runs along with one of the best SB totals in the game he should provide great value for fantasy players, especially given his current ADP (67).”

Reality: Ellsbury finished with 70 SB and 94 R en route to being the 14th-best fantasy hitter, according to Last Player Picked.

Notes: Ellsbury outearned Ichiro, with his 44 SB edge being more valuable than Ichiro’s 51-point AVG advantage.

Other predictions that turned out well included ones for Markakis, Bay, K. Johnson, Victorino, A. Soriano and Haren. I was more bullish than the ADPs for Choo and Mauer although both outperformed my expectations for them.

Heading into the 2009 season, no fantasy position was as screwed up as shortstop. The first three spots were written in stone but if you looked at 10 different rankings, it is possible you might not have found even two lists which had one player the same in their rankings from four through 20.

And if we thought it was a mess heading into the year, it has been even more unpredictable two-thirds of the way through the 2009 season. I am going to use the preseason rankings of my friend Troy Patterson from Roto Savants to illustrate this point. Patterson does excellent work and readers may recognize his name from comments he has left on articles here previously. I am going to compare his rankings versus the current numbers for SS from the RotoTimes Player Rater (RTPR).

1. Hanley Ramirez (RTPR #1) – Ramirez probably went in the top three of your draft, if not first overall. He checks in today with a dollar value of $33.19 and in raw dollars is the third-best fantasy hitter.

2. Jose Reyes (RTPR #25) – Reyes had been one of the most consistent fantasy players the past four seasons but has had this year ruined by his leg injuries.

3. Jimmy Rollins (RTPR #14) – Rollins deserved to be the third shortstop off the board this year but a first-round pick was too high. Rollins delivered first-round value in his MVP season of 2007 but that season he set career bests in four fantasy categories and also had 41 SB.

4. Jhonny Peralta (RTPR #19) – Peralta hit 20+ HR in three of the past four seasons but this year is on pace to hit just 14. Also, he projects to finish with just 66 R, after scoring 104 last season and finishing with 80 or more the previous three seasons.

5. J.J. Hardy (RTPR #31) – Hardy was coming off back-to-back strong fantasy seasons in which he contributed in four categories. For healthy players, he belongs in the conversation for biggest fantasy busts of the year with his -$5.08 dollar value so far.

6. Stephen Drew (RTPR #20) – Owners enthralled by his strong second half in 2008 have been really disappointed by Drew’s 2009 season. After putting up a .927 OPS after the All-Star break last year, only a strong season at home this year has kept 2009 from being a disaster. Drew has a .225 AVG away from Chase Field and a .667 OPS in road games.

7. Troy Tulowitzki (RTPR #6) – Injuries ruined Tulowitzki’s 2008 season and fantasy owners were cautious with him heading into this year. Tulowitzki got off to a slow start but since June 7th he has a .320-15-36-40-10 line in his last 50 games.

8. Derek Jeter (RTPR #2) – Jeter’s days as a fantasy star seemed to be over but he has surprised everyone by once again being a five-category fantasy player. After posting 11 HR and 11 SB in 150 games last year, Jeter has 11 HR and 19 SB in 99 games this season.

9. Michael Young (RTPR #3) – Another player whose best fantasy days seemed to be behind him, Young has thrived with a move to 3B, although he retains his SS eligibility for this season. Young is on pace for his best year since 2005, when he finished 11th in the MVP race.

10. Rafael Furcal (RTPR #23) – A trendy pick to be the fourth SS off the board, Furcal has been healthy this season but not nearly as productive as he was last year before going down with a back injury. Furcal has been hot lately and will likely move up among SS before the year is out.

Six of the top 10 players on this list have current positional ratings of 14 or lower. Compare that to Patterson’s first base list, in which eight of the players in his preseason top 10 currently rank in the top 11 spots at the position.

So, which players not listed above currently rank in the top 10 SS? They are as follows:

4. Jason Bartlett (Patterson preseason #23) – In his third season as a full-time player, Barlett is far surpassing numbers he put up previously. He already has established career-bests in HR and RBI and is only 3 SB off his personal best.

5. Miguel Tejada (Patterson #12) – A .339 BABIP is certainly helping to rejuvenate Tejada. But he also benefits from a strong performance in RBIs. Updated ZiPS forecasts him to finish with 92 RBIs, which would be his best mark since 2006 and 29 more than he produced last season.

7. Marco Scutaro (Patterson not in top 25) – In his age 33 season, Scutaro will establish career highs in all five fantasy categories. Yes, some of that is due simply to playing time, but Scutaro did post 592 PA last season.

8. Ryan Theriot (Patterson #15) – Most people were not as bullish on Theriot as Patterson was. He had a .340 BABIP last year (with no power) and the Dutton and Bendix xBABIP model had him for a .291 mark in the category. No one was expecting Theriot to post a .336 BABIP this season.

9. Yunel Escobar (Patterson #18) – It seems like just yesterday that pundits were referring to Escobar as a “Yutility infielder” and now he is a solid starter in a 12-team mixed league.

10. Asdrubal Cabrera (Patterson not in top 25) – Cabrera was draft worthy coming into the season due to his eligibility at both 2B and SS. A .359 BABIP has made him a starter in most leagues, although he has also contributed more SB than anyone expected.