Archive for Armando Galarraga

We’ve seen the move enough over the last two years that the math is clear: Struggling young fly-ball pitcher from a tough American League division + trade to Arizona = Fantasy relevance! So will that math magic work for Armando Galarraga?

Not so fast. The first difference is immediately obvious upon looking at the player cards of the respective trio. Galarraga has a career 5.7 strikeout rate with a peak of 6.35 in 2008 – Dan Hudson showed a 6.75 K/9 in Chicago and was consistently over one per inning in the minor league leagues, and Ian Kennedy had a 6.49 K/9 in New York and also had a strikeout rate over one per inning in the minors.

But, say you believe in Galarraga’s peak strikeout rate despite its precipitous drop (to 4.61 K/9 last year), there’s still the matter of his ground-ball rate. All of the three are fly-ballers (not fly ballers), but here Galarraga (40.4% ground balls career) comes out (incredibly) ahead of the pack when compared to Hudson (34.2% ground balls career) and Kennedy (36.9% ground balls career). So… he strikes out a few less but gets a few more grounders, maybe he should be included in the trio as interesting late-round picks in upcoming drafts?

Thta’s still a negative, Ghostrider. It’s a matter of age and proximity to their minor league records. When Hudson made the leap to Arizona, he’d only accrued 34 1/3 major-league innings and 23 years on this earth – Kennedy 59 2/3 and 25 respectively. Galarraga is 28 years old and has pitched 475 1/3 major league innings. He’s no lapsed prospect that hasn’t gotten the chance to perform – he’s a journeyman just trying to hang on.

The bounce back won’t look like Hudson’s or Kennedy’s for Galarraga, who has pitched to a 5.17 FIP over his career, but could it look okay anyway? Take his career strikeout rate (5.7), strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.62) and ground-ball rate (40.4%) and look for comparative qualified starters in the National League last year, and it’s not pretty. Being as good as Randy Wolf (5.93 K/9, 1.63 K/BB, 39.4% GB) and his 4.17 ERA (4.85 FIP) would be a success story for Galarraga. Other close comps are Dave Bush (5.52 K/9, 1.64 K/BB, 39.5% GB, 4.54 ERA, 5.13 FIP) and Rodrigo Lopez (5.22 K/9, 2.07 K/BB, 37.6% GB, 5.00 ERA, 5.21 FIP) so he’s not in happy territory.

Galarraga may take the fifth starter role in Arizona next year, and he may pitch better than his terrible 2010 season (imPerfect game notwithstanding), and he may even have some superficial similarities to other AL starters that have made the same move recently – all of these things may be true, but he’s still probably not a good pick in your next draft.

Stock Up

Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies

de la Rosa sure has played roster hot-potato for a lefty cooking in the low-90’s, having been a part of four trades while seeing time in the Arizona, Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City and Colorado systems. The 28 year-old, as covered in great detail by Eno Sarris, has kicked off the 2009 season with a 2.99 FIP, 9.49 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9 in 42.2 innings. de la Rosa has been fortunate in the home run department (0.42 HR/9, 4.9 HR/FB%), but his XFIP (based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR rate) still checks in at a tidy 3.70. If de la Rosa can keep the walks at a moderate rate, he could be an asset in most any league.

Joe Mauer, Twins

I know- Mauer has long been a fantasy darling, as a line-drive hitting backstop with excellent control of the zone. But the 26 year-old’s power outburst to begin the ’09 season bears mentioning: he’s already popped 6 out of the park in 73 plate appearances (this after hitting a combined 16 dingers in over 1,100 PA’s during the 2007 and 2008 seasons). Don’t expect him to suddenly go all Mike Piazza on the league, but Mauer would only add to his immense value if he could loft 20 big flys in addition to his high-contact, patient act at the dish.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies

Ubaldo has done a better job of limiting the base on balls in recent starts, with 22 K’s, 6 walks and 6 runs allowed in 27 frames during the month of May. Like de la Rosa, Jimenez has had some good luck on flyballs (0.20 HR/9, 2.4 HR/FB%), but his XFIP is a decent 4.43 despite a disastrous April (16 runs, 19/17 K/BB in 19 IP). The combination of whiffs (8.02 K/9) and worm-burners (50 GB%) makes the 25 year-old Dominican Republic native an intriguing trade target.

Jayson Werth, Phillies

The whole “is player X overrated/underrated” debate is obviously subjective, but Werth has to place among the more underappreciated talents in the game. How many people realize just how valuable this rangy, 6-2, 225 pounder has been for the Phillies since 2007? A 3.4 Win player in partial playing time in ’07, Werth posted a 5.3 WAR season for the Phillies in 2008 (tied with Jimmy Rollins for 2nd in a star-studded lineup), and he’s produced 1.4 wins already in 2009. With a .415 wOBA (.294/.396/.540) and 8 steals in 9 attempts, Werth is producing in every facet of the game. He’s even making a little more contact (23.8 K%, 29.9 career average), while raking against righties (.849 OPS) in addition to his usual lefty lashing (1.142 OPS).

Rick Porcello, Tigers

Porcello has gone from Seton Hall Prep to viable major league starter in less than two seasons, as the 20 year-old sinkerballer has allowed 2 runs in 18 innings during the month of May. Porcello isn’t blowing batters away (5.67 K/9), but he’s stingy with the free passes (2.95 BB/9) and generates grounders (53.6 GB%) with the sinker, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup. Porcello is doing a better job of throwing his three quality offerings (particularly his curveball) from the same arm-slot. Check out his release point chart against the Yankees, in a 3.2 inning, 6 run drubbing on April 29th…

…and his release point in a 6-inning, 1 run gem against the A’s on May 16th…

Stock Down

Alexei Ramirez, White Sox

There has been a general malaise over the South Side bats in 2009 (the Pale Hose rank 26th in wOBA), and Ramirez is one of the main culprits. Ramirez has been slightly more “patient” in ’09 ( we’re speaking in incredibly relative terms here: 5.6 BB%, 37.2 Outside Swing Percentage in 2009 compared to 3.6 BB% and a 42.7 O-Swing% in ’08), but the “Cuban Missile” has failed to launch, with a sickly .243 wOBA. His BABIP sits at a very low .238, so some positive regression should be expected. Still, his .051 ISO is downright Bloomquistian. This is what you sign up for if you gamble on a batting average-dependent player: when those hits don’t fall in, that player’s value craters.

Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals

Just when it looked like Wellemeyer might establish himself as a competent mid-rotation cog (4.51 FIP in 2008), he has gone and reminded everyone why he’s a former Cub, Marlin and Royal. His K rate has dipped from 6.29 per nine in ’08 to 5.28 in ’09, with his BB/9 inflating from 2.91 to 4.11. Wellemeyer’s go-to secondary offering last year was a mid-80’s slider (thrown 23.6% of the time), but his slider usage is down this season (12.9%), as is its velocity (83.1 MPH). In place of the hard breaker, the 30 year-old has mixed in a few high-80’s cutters and some high-70’s curves. The kitchen sink approach does not appear to be working.

Josh Fields, White Sox

The former first-rounder out of Oklahoma State has been a wreck at the plate this season, whiffing 32.8 percent of the time while making Scott Podsednik look like a power hitter (.096 ISO). That’s quite the fall for a guy who authored a .236 ISO during the 2007 season. At 26 years old and coming off a mundane season spent at AAA Charlotte in 2008 (.347 wOBA, .772 OPS), Fields isn’t such a highly-regarded youngster than he can continue to post oh-fer’s and stay in the lineup. He’s not on the Drew Henson path of doom quite yet, but he might want to take a few snaps in between BP sessions.

Armando Galarraga, Tigers

As a free-talent pickup from Texas, Galarraga was a pleasant surprise for the Tigers in 2008 while many other Detroit hurlers crashed and burned. A good deal of regression should have been expected this season (Galarraga’s 3.73 ERA far surpassed his 4.88 FIP), but we weren’t quite anticipating this kind of spontaneous combustion. While Verlander, Jackson and Porcello deal, 2008’s nominal ace has a 5.62 FIP and a walk rate closing in on five batters per nine innings. His last outing on May 17th was a 0.2 inning, 5-run disaster against the light-hitting A’s.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres

The Crushin’ Russian has not lived up to his nickname so far in 2009. Kouzmanoff’s Isolated Power figure comes in at just .101, continuing a three-year downward trend: his ISO was .182 in 2007 (his first full season in the big leagues) and .173 in 2008. The 28 year-old’s wOBA’s have dipped from .339 in ’07, .316 in ’08 and just .284 in 2009. The Padres are giving some thought to putting Chase Headley back at the hot corner, to make room for mammoth 6-6, 275 pound prospect Kyle Blanks in left field (it’s a stretch, but he’s more athletic than you might think). Kouzmanoff will need to show something in the coming weeks if he hopes to avoid being usurped.

Here is the latest update to Week 6 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update
ANA – Weaver
DET – Galarraga
KCY – Hochevar
HOU – Paulino
SEA – Vargas
FLA – Koronka

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
PHI – Moyer
HOU – Hampton
FLA – Sanchez
DET – Miner
SEA – Silva
KCY – Ponson
ANA – Ortega

Weaver is having a fine season and is coming off a complete-game victory with eight strikeouts. He should be active in all formats but is facing a tough road with a matchup against the Red Sox and a road start in Texas.

In his last two starts Galarraga has given up 11 ER in 11 IP with five strikeouts and three home runs allowed. His 4.09 BB/9 is nothing to write home about, either.

Hochevar takes Soria’s spot on the roster and Ponson’s spot in the rotation. He was 5-0 with a 0.90 ERA at Triple-A. Hochevar had 30 strikeouts and 10 walks in 40 innings at Omaha.

After getting bumped to the bullpen when Moehler came off the disabled list, Paulino returns to the rotation taking Ortiz’ spot. In three games as a starter, Paulino has a 2.55 ERA. In three games as a reliever his ERA is 21.00.

Vargas gets a spot in the rotation after picking up a win in two appearances as a reliever. He averaged 9.14 K/9 in 21.2 IP at Triple-A and has four strikeouts in 3.2 IP with Seattle.

Never a big strikeout pitcher, Koronka punched out 24 batters in 27 innings at Triple-A. However, he gave up four home runs in that time span.

As we get ready for Week 3, most teams will have reached a point where they are using fifth starters. The schedule still has a few extra off days, so clubs may or may not be on a strict every-fifth-day rotation. Assuming they are, here are five interesting pitchers slated for two starts in leagues whose week starts on Monday.

Justin Masterson – With Daisuke Matsuzaka on the disabled list, Masterson makes his first start of the season on Monday. He is at home versus the Orioles on Monday and if he stays in the rotation will be at home to face the Yankees at the end of the week.

Jordan Zimmermann – The Nationals are slated to promote top prospect Zimmermann from the minors to make his first start of the season at home versus the Braves. His second start will be at New York versus the Mets.

Andrew Miller – The sixth pick of the 2006 draft gets a start Monday at Pittsburgh and later in the week the lefty Miller has a home start versus the lefty-heavy Phillies.

Scott Richmond – After a strong outing (6.1 IP, 1 ER) in his last start versus the Twins, Richmond has a home start versus the Rangers on Tuesday and at Chicago on Sunday.

Armando Galarraga – Last year’s surprise pitcher sees if he can keep his hot 2009 start going with games Tuesday at the Angels and Sunday at Kansas City.

Other potential two-start pitchers in Week 3 are:

Simon, Eveland, Pettitte, Lowe, Correia, Moyer, Hampton, Marquis, Garland, Contreras, Hendrickson, Baker, Wakefield, Ramirez, Laffey, Anderson, Sabathia, Kawakami, Martis, Parra, Blanton, Sanchez, Karstens, McCarthy, Owings, Harden, Kershaw, Ortiz, Perez, Pineiro, Morales, Petit, Weaver, Sonnanstine, Washburn, Peavy and Cain.

With spring training in full swing and most drafts set to begin, now seems like the perfect time to recap which starting pitchers might see a dip or rebound in their respective performances. Here’s a quick look at the five hurlers with the largest discord between their Earned Run Average and Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Let’s start with those who were a little too fortunate in 2008.

1.) Armando Galarraga, Tigers
3.59 ERA, 4.81 FIP

Acquired before the ’08 season from the Rangers for a nondescript minor league outfielder, Galarraga turned in the best starting line for a disappointing Tigers rotation. However, his peripherals (6.35 K/9, 2.97 BB/9) suggest that he’s more likely to post an ERA north of four and a half if he retains similar rates next season. Galarraga’s .250 BABIP (third-lowest among all starters) is sure to rise.

2.) Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
2.90 ERA, 4.03 FIP

Matsuzaka was the subject of one of the first articles on Rotographs, where I pointed out several trends that portend to a less shiny ERA in 2009. Dice-K missed bats (8.27 K/9), but he was the beneficiary of a .267 BABIP, a high strand rate (80.6 LOB%) and a low HR/FB rate (6.1%). Add in a maddening tendency to dish out free passes (5.05 BB/9), and Matsuzaka’s year begins to lose some of its luster.

3.) Johan Santana, Mets
2.53 ERA, 3.51 FIP

We’re obviously speaking in relative terms here: Santana’s FIP ranked 16th among all starters, as he whiffed 7.91 batters per nine innings with 2.42 BB/9. The soon-to-be 30 year-old is still one of the prime starters in the NL, if not quite the cyborg that tore through the AL earlier in the decade. With a lower strand rate (his 82.6% mark was the highest among all starters), Santana’s ERA will likely revert to great as opposed to otherworldly.

4.) Joe Saunders, Angels
3.41 ERA, 4.36 FIP

A former first-rounder out of Virginia Tech, Saunders looks like he should fool batters. The 6-3 southpaw has fair velocity on his fastball (91 MPH) and complements the heater with a changeup, curveball and occasional slider. While Saunders possesses solid control (2.41 BB/9), his K rate (4.68 per nine) and low BABIP (.267) suggest that he’s more Average Joe than fledging ace.

5.) Gavin Floyd, White Sox
3.84 ERA, 4.77 FIP

The perennial prospect finally turned in a full season in a major league rotation, tossing 206.1 frames for the White Sox. The former Phillies farm hand did perform better in the second half of the year (6.65 K/9, 2.18 BB/9 after the all-star break, 6.04 K/9 and 3.79 BB/9 prior), but Floyd had auspicious luck on balls put in play (.268 BABIP) and southpaws continued to rake against him (.259/.340/.485).

Who would have thought, entering the 2008 season, that Armando Galarraga would end up being Detroit’s most consistent starting pitcher? With Justin Verlander stranding an unusually low percentage of runners, Jeremy Bonderman (whose career divide between his peripherals and ERA would make Javier Vazquez blush) succumbing to injury, Kenny Rogers (a career-worst 5.22 FIP ERA) looking cooked and Nate Robertson suffering from horrible luck on balls put in play (.343 BABIP), Galarraga was the only starter to post a sub-four ERA for a group that authored a combined 5.03 ERA.

Galarraga had previously been part of a blockbuster deal, as the Washington Nationals shipped him as well outfielders Terrmel Sledge and Brad Wilkerson to the Rangers for Alfonso Soriano in December of 2005. Galarraga’s trade from Texas to the Tigers, however, was much less splashy. Designated for assignment by the pitching-starved Rangers, Galarraga moved to the Motor City for outfielder Michael Hernandez, who went undrafted out of Oklahoma State in 2006. Galarraga was seen as possessing enough talent to help fill in at the back of a big league pitching staff, but he had missed nearly all of the 2002 and 2003 seasons following Tommy John surgery, as well as 2006 while battling a shoulder injury.

While Hernandez failed to impress at High-A and moved on to the Mets organization, Galarraga posted a 3.73 ERA for the Tigers in 28 starts. His 13-7 record was a breath of fresh air for a club that rarely received stellar starting performances. Regardless of what occurs from this point forward, the Tigers received one year of above-average pitching essentially for free. That’s a great deal no matter how you cut it. Unfortunately, there are plenty of reasons to expect Galarraga’s good fortune to come to an end in 2009.

The 6-4, 180 pounder compiled a superficially impressive ERA, but there was a Grand Canyon-sized gap between his actual ERA and his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA). Galarraga’s FIP ERA was a much less impressive 4.88, over 1.1 runs higher than his actual mark. That dichotomy between his ERA and FIP ERA (-1.15 runs) was the largest in the majors, surpassing Daisuke Matsuzaka (-1.13) and Johan Santana (-0.97). Galarraga didn’t miss that many bats, striking out 6.35 batters per nine innings, and his control was just fair (3.07 BB/9). He was somewhat unlucky in the home run department (his HR/FB% was 13), but even using XFIP from The Hardball Times to adjust for that, his ERA came in at a less shiny 4.59. So, Galarraga struck out just slightly more than the league average, showed ordinary control and gave up his fair share of longballs. How did he manage to outperform his controllable skills by such a large margin?

The answer lies in Galarraga’s BABIP and Strand Rate (LOB%). The soon-to-be 27 year-old posted a minuscule .247 BABIP. Among starting pitchers, only David Bush and Tim Wakefield received more auspicious bounces on balls put in play. Galarraga also stranded runners at a 75.6% clip, above the 70-72% average in that category. When more of those balls put in play fail to reach gloves and his strand rate presumably ticks down, Galarraga’s ERA is going to climb.

As a free-talent acquisition, Armando Galarraga was an excellent value for the Tigers. However, his solid 2008 campaign looks more like a mirage than a harbinger of things to come. Let someone else pick Galarraga and end up disappointed with the results.