Archive for Arizona

This review was written with permission — I asked, not the other way around — and was not reviewed prior to publication.

There exists several gatherings for baseball enthusiasts every year, including, off the top of my head, MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, SABR Analytics Conference, Saber Seminar and Pitch Talks. However, I can’t name many, if any, conferences that cater specifically to fantasy baseball enthusiasts other than First Pitch Arizona (FPAZ). It’s not that the other conferences wouldn’t benefit fantasy baseball players — surely, they share sharp, illuminating content — but they don’t synthesize it specifically for the fantasy baseball experience.

Brent Hershey, general manager of BaseballHQ, invited me to speak on a panel with Greg Ambrosius (National Fantasy Baseball Championship, or NFBC), Dave Potts (RotoGrinders) and Brian Slack (BaseballHQ) about 2017 average draft position (ADP) musings. For an event in its 23rd year, I could find scarcely any reviews of the conference aside from these testimonials.

Accordingly, I thought it would be worthwhile to allow readers to learn (more) about the event. I’ll provide a brief overview of everything and then break down the programming by day, almost like I’m writing in my diary, except without the anxiety and self-doubt.

Overview

FPAZ occurs every year the weekend of the Arizona Fall League (AFL) Fall Stars Game (typically the first weekend of November) in Phoenix, Ariz. Registration costs $249 for early birds and $499 for late birds. The conference spans four days, four nights — for this year, the evening of Thursday, Nov. 2 through the morning of Sunday, Nov. 5 — and includes two tickets (or more, depending on availability) to any AFL games playing that weekend and, once available, all of BaseballHQ’s major publications. It also provides breakfast each morning and a buffet lunch on Saturday on site. Exact programming is liable to change from year to year, but a couple of panels (based on cornerstone BaseballHQ content) likely stay the same. Hotel fare is not covered, but the conference took place at the DoubleTree suites by Hilton, which is where most attendees stayed.

Thursday

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I’m always looking for new angles on National League outfielders. There are only so many of them, and only so many things can be said about the same few juggernauts.

For example, I discovered just now that Randal Grichuk has recorded the fourth-highest wins above replacement (WAR) per plate appearance for NL outfielders behind only Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton and Andrew McCutchen. It certainly surprised me, and while that’s a storyline in itself, Karl de Vries assessed Grichuk here last month, highlighting reasons for optimism and concern. (For example, his batted ball profile validates his power display but thinks his batting average deserves to drop around 45 points.)

In this same vein, it may surprise you to know the infrequently discussed David Peralta ranks seventh in WAR per plate appearance among NL outfielders with as many plate appearances as him (275) and 10th in aggregate WAR. Those figures account for his defense that, according to the metrics, rates average at best, so his value is driven primarily by his bat.

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Rubby de la Rosa twirled a gem Monday night.* It was a night of several unlucky fantasy pitching performances: Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Matt Harvey and John Lackey together struck out 34 batters and allowed only three runs in a combined 32 innings pitched, and the Twitterverse made sure everyone knew.

Yet there was de la Rosa, plugging away against the Marlins (and against Dan Haren, who admirably tossed eight innings of two-run ball in defense), needing only 94 pitches to get through a full nine innings of play. Rubby, too, settled for a no-decision, his due to a poorly timed two-run homer allowed to J.T. Realmuto in the 7th inning.

I was reluctant to invest in Rubby at first, remembering his wholly disappointing 2014 season. (In his defense, he was never really a touted, let alone highly touted, prospect, even within the Dodgers and Red Sox systems, so the term “disappointment” is used loosely here.) However, I have bought several shares of Rubby in the past couple of weeks due in large part to a smattering of injuries but also a series of respectable performances by de la Rosa.

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