Archive for Andy Sonnanstine

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 23.

Homer Bailey – The overall numbers this year are underwhelming for Bailey but in his last three starts he is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 19 Ks in 21.1 IP. He is consistently in the mid-90s with his fastball and can dial it up to 98. The gopher ball is still a problem, he gave up two in his last start, and he does have a road start this week in Coors. Still, I like him this week as a two-start pitcher.

Garrett Mock – In the last 24 games of August, the Nationals were 8-16. In that same time span, Mock was 3-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 32 SO in 28.2 IP. Walks have been a problem for Mock, but his FIP is still nearly a run lower than his ERA. Get him into your lineup this week, even with a tough matchup against the Phillies.

Clayton Richard – Fantasy owners have really been hesitant to pick up Richard since his move to the NL, despite a 4-1 record with the Padres. He is 3-0 at home and gets one of his two starts this week at Petco. Since his road start is at San Francisco, I think he is a good two-start pitcher this week.

Ricky Romero – It has been a very successful rookie season for Romero, but the lefty has been hitting the wall lately. In his last six starts, Romero is 1-3 with a 6.32 ERA and a 1.851 WHIP. He catches a break by not going up against any AL East teams this week, still I think it is good to give him a break and not suffer two starts equal to what he has posted recently.

Andy Sonnanstine – One year after pitching in the World Series, it has been a disappointing season for Sonnanstine. He was unimpressive in the beginning of the season and was sent back to the minors. Sonnanstine posted a 4.40 ERA in nine games at Triple-A Durham and then made it back to Tampa Bay after the Kazmir deal. And his first start back was more of the same as he fell to 6-8. This week he has road starts at the New York and at Boston. Keep him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 23 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, F. Hernandez, Carpenter, Vazquez, Jimenez, Beckett, Happ, Lilly, Marquis, Kazmir, E. Santana, Garza, Scherzer, Buehrle, P. Martinez, Buchholz, Porcello, Penny, Richmond, Correia, Duensing, Bannister, Nippert, Lehr, Davies, Bush, Moehler, VandenHurk, Redding, Manship, Misch, Paulino.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 21 and how they did.

Arroyo – Advised to start. 1.88 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.05 WHIP (2 starts)
Buchholz – Advised to start. W, 5.54 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.08 WHIP (2)
Millwood – Advised to sit. W, 5.40 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.71 WHIP (2)
Niemann – Advised to sit. W, 4.72 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.20 WHIP (2)
Rowland-Smith – Advised to start. 3.14 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.05 WHIP (2)

Here is the latest update to Week 10 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

LAD – Billingsley
NYY – Burnett
SD – C. Young
TB – Sonnanstine
DET – Bonderman
BAL – Bergesen
STL – B. Thompson

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Lohse
NYY – Wang
TB – Niemann
DET – Willis
BAL – D. Hernandez

Billingsley has pitched at least six innings in each of his 12 outings this year and has 11 Quality Starts. The Dodgers have also supported him well offensively, averaging 5.11 runs per game in his starts.

Burnett went seven straight games without a win before earning a W in his last two outings. It has been tough going for Burnett in his first season in pinstripes. His K/9 are down, his BB/9 are up and his HR/9 have nearly doubled. A groundball pitcher throughout his career, Burnett has a 0.96 GB/FB ratio in 2009.

Young has two road starts this week. In Petco Park, Young is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.053 WHIP. On the road he is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.761 WHIP.

Sonnanstine’s FIP stands at 2.08 lower than his ERA. But his FIP still checks in at an ugly 4.99, over a full run higher than it was a year ago. All of his numbers are worse than they were a year ago. He has allowed five or more runs in five of his 11 starts this year.

Bonderman will make his 2009 debut after being on the disabled list since last June due to surgery to repair a blood clot in his axillary vein. He made four starts in the minors, three at Triple-A. In his last outing he pitched eight shutout innings with six hits, no walks and five strikeouts.

Bergesen is a groundball specialist. His 2.09 GB/FB rate would rank sixth, just behind Derek Lowe, if he had enough innings to qualify. Bergesen has done a good job of giving the Orioles a chance to win, only once in nine outings giving up more runs than innings pitched. His last two outings have been Quality Starts.

Thompson made his first start of the year on June 2nd after nine relief appearances. A curve ball specialist, Thompson relies on control and keeping the ball in the park in order to be successful.

Guys,
Haven’t seen a mailbag since the 14th and wanted to get your thoughts on this.

Thanks, Big Oil

Thanks for the question, and since readership has been high for these, we will continue to do them.

My initial response is that I don’t like the deal. If you only keep four, you always want to consolidate your keeper talent. That much is probably not news to you, but Grady Sizemore blend of speed and power is matched by only a handful of players. Owning him puts you ahead of the game because you don’t need to pick a speed-only guy high in the draft – if at all.

Upon a closer review, I can see the enticement. Your current third basemen are not up to snuff in a mixed league, and though you are competing now, you may fall behind without Aramis Ramirez and his considerable production at the hot corner. I don’t fault you for looking for a better option at third base, not at all.

However, I still go with ‘no,’ even after more reflection. I don’t want you to keep a second 1B (Adrian Gonzalez is good, but first base is a deep position), and Jay Bruce and Justin Upton are exciting players that probably won’t steal like Sizemore. Upton is close, as he is on pace for over 15 stolen bases this year and has always shown good speed in the minors.

But speed is not his game like Sizemore’s. Consider that Sizemore stole 96 bases in the minors (in 529 games) while Upton totaled 36 in 231 games. Er, that was a suprising statistic. Guess it makes sense that Upton’s four-component speed score of 6.7 this year would better Sizemore’s since 2006.

Hmmm. On second thought, fly that flag. Go for the win and do the trade. Upton looks like a good consolation prize right now, and at 21 is coming into his own. You can deal your surplus 3B at the end of the year if you want to consolidate keepers.

In a 12 team mixed league, I have a staff of Sabathia, Chamberlain, Greinke, Kershaw, Porcello, Maholm, and Sonnanstine. I am going with 2 closers and am using Joba’s RP status to plug in an extra starter. I also had Kawakami on my bench, but dumped him and someone else scooped him up. I am growing impatient with Sonny and am wondering if I should cut bait and pick up someone else. I am near the top of ERA, WHIP, Wins, but could use more Ks and could go back to 3 true RPs. Any thoughts?

Thanks! K.G.

Andy Sonnanstine shouldn’t be owned in most formats. Seriously, I took a longer look at his stats than I deemed necessary, and I still didn’t see anything I liked.

His mediocre stuff just holds him back. While he’s still not walking too many to be productive (2.92 per nine), he’s still not striking out enough to really matter (5.29 K/9). How is he going to strike people out with an 87 MPH fastball, an 87 MPH cutter, a 77 MPH slider, and a 74 MPH curveball? That’s just too many pitches at the same speed with similar movement.

Look at this chart for his vertical movement. You can see why he’s suddenly using his cutter more, because it’s the only one that moves differently on the vertical plane. Consider that his cutter used to move less, and the possibility of a regression to an already-unattractive mean is not a happy thought.

Sonnanstine is a decent number four or five in real life baseball, just on the basis of his stinginess with the walks. That shouldn’t be too attractive in fantasy baseball. Go find a reliever that might get you some saves. (Oh and trade Paul Maholm high, because he’s got too much in common with Sonnanstine to get comfortable with him.)

Our email address for this feature is rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com, so send in your questions! Remember to try to give us all relevant information in the fewest words possible, and you’ll be all set.

Think of the 25 best starting pitchers from 2008.

Undoubtedly, you’ve thought of such mainstays as CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and Brandon Webb. You’ve probably thought of the guys who came out of nowhere to have fantastic seasons, like Cliff Lee and Ryan Dempster. You’ve thought of the youngsters who burst onto the scene, like Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez and Chad Billingsley.

But did you think of Andy Sonnanstine?

Sonnanstine had the 22nd best tRA of any starting pitcher this year. He also posted a 4.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and racked up 124 strikeouts (against only 37 walks) in 193 innings. Sonnanstine’s lack of strikeouts prevent him from becoming a fantasy ace, but he’s still an excellent pitcher whose ERA should have been even lower this year.

Sonnanstine suffered from a .312 BABIP this year, despite playing in front of one of the league’s best defenses. The Rays defense should be above-average once again next year, and Sonnanstine’s BABIP is likely to regress to the .270-.290 range, which should help to lower both his WHIP and his ERA.

In fact, Sonnanstine posted a 3.91 FIP this year – over 40 points lower than his actual ERA. Part of this difference can be blamed on Sonnanstine’s poor luck on balls in play; however, Sonnanstine also suffered from a very low left-on-base percentage.

Sonnanstine managed to strand only 66.3% of the runners who reached base against him – the fifth-worst mark of any qualifying starting pitcher. Not surprisingly, Sonnanstine pitched poorly with runners on base, allowing a .286/.314/.459 line with men on base, as compared to a .271/.310/.437 line with no one on base. This is not a huge difference; however, unfortunately for Sonnanstine, he allowed hits in the worst situations: with the bases loaded, batters were 3-for-6 with two doubles against him; with men at second and third, batters were 4-for-6 with a homer; and batters hit .345 against him when a runner was at third with less than two outs.

Even though he gave up more hits in “clutch” situations than regular situations, Sonnanstine struck out the same percentage of batters he faced with runners aboard as when no one was on base. In other words, Sonnanstine’s stuff doesn’t appear to have declined with men on base. Rather, he simply gave up a disproportionate amount of hits in the worst situations.

If you believe that this is evidence of Sonnanstine not having the mental fortitude to pitch well in important situations, I will point out that Sonnanstine allowed 0 earned runs in 13 innings in consecutive starts against the Red Sox in September, and he posted a 4.24 ERA in three postseason starts. He’s clearly unfazed by pressure situations. Therefore, there’s no reason to think that Sonnanstine’s ability to pitch with men on base is any different than in other situations. Rather, Sonnanstine’s poor showing with runners on base is likely due to random fluctuation.

Sonnanstine pitched quite well this year and experienced a rather large amount of bad luck. In fact, the 41 point difference between Sonnanstine’s ERA and FIP was the 12th largest discrepancy of qualifying starting pitchers. If that luck regresses next season, he could lower his ERA and WHIP even further, while continuing to rack up wins thanks to the strong team around him. While Sonnanstine will never strike out a ton of hitters, he will make up for this by contributing in three other categories, and is likely to be undervalued on draft day.