Archive for Andruw Jones

Looking around the free agent lists, I was surprised to see some names available at this point in the fantasy season.

Brett Gardner | OF | Yankees: Gardner is currently owned in just 39% of Yahoo leagues, which is surprising. Yankees players can sometimes be overrated in fantasy, but the sophomore is getting a bit of the cold shoulder. Playing regularly in the outfield for New York, the only thing he really hasn’t done is hit for power. Gardner is currently hitting .296/.387/.352 with nine steals in 10 tries. His stolen base total ranks him second in the Major Leagues behind just Andrew McCutchen of Pittsburgh (95% owned), and tied with Michael Bourn of Houston (84%), and Juan Pierre of Chicago AL (39%). Gardner is a great source of steals and runs, so he should be on your fantasy teams if you’re hurting in those areas.

Andruw Jones | OF | White Sox: Jones is currently owned in just 35% of leagues despite the fact that he’s tied for third in the Majors in homers with six. Yes, he’s posted some pretty bad numbers in the past, but Jones has lost a noticeable amount of weight and his bat is much quicker. He’s hit his six homers in fewer plate appearances than any of the other 14 home runs leaders in the Majors. He’s even added three steals, and is hitting a respectable .275. Jones is a low-risk option for home runs, especially given his history of power numbers.

Paul Konerko | 1B | White Sox: We normally focus on players with lower ownership numbers than 63%, but I find it odd that the MLB leader in homers doesn’t have a higher percentage. Konerko is the only player in the Majors with eight homers, he’s hitting .288 (no small feat in Chicago) and he’s driven in 14 runs for a struggling offense. He hasn’t been an elite slugger for a couple years now, but he’s still just 34 years old, so there is probably some gas left in the tank. Konerko last hit 30+ homers in 2007 but he still managed 28 last season. If he’s around in your league and you don’t have a ton of offense already at 1B and/or DH, snap him up and enjoy his solid performance.

As you all probably know, it’s the American Thanksgiving holiday this Thursday, so we Canadian writers are holding down the fort, having celebrated our Thanksgiving this past Oct. 12 (We canuckleheads are a crazy bunch).

Anyway, your friends to the north are not the only ones working during this holiday time. Some Major League Baseball teams have been busy working the transaction wire, including the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Padres, Kansas City… and the White Sox, as you learned with Dave’s recent post discussing the signing of Andruw Jones with the White Sox.

The Boston Red Sox made a minor move by acquiring infielder Tug Hulett from the Kansas City Royals for a player to be named or cash. Hulett had been designated for assignment recently. The move brings in some infield depth on the 40-man roster. The infielder, who never got a fair shot in KC, moves on to a club that should truly appreciate his ability to get on base, while providing depth at multiple infield positions. His defense is nothing special, but Hulett is an offensive-minded infielder with a career minor-league on-base average of .393. He also has the ability to hit 10-15 homers and steal just as many bases if given full playing time, which is unlikely to happen. In deep AL-only fantasy leagues, Hulett could offer short-term value if an injury occurs to a Boston starter. Just you watch… Kansas City will now go out and give a veteran bench player $1 million to fill the role that Hulett could have done for the league minimum. Frankly, I think he would have been a nice pick-up by the Jays organization.

I won’t completely condemn the Royals. Like Hulett, Buck Coats is one of those minor-league players that I would have grabbed for depth if I was a big-league GM. The Kansas City organization signed the outfielder as a minor-league free agent after he spent the past two season in triple-A with Toronto. Keeping in mind that Coats played in one of the best triple-A parks to hit in, he managed a triple-slash line of .302/.361/.415 with 25 steals in 32 attempts. His strikeout rate was just 12.8%, yet he has never gotten on base enough (8.6 BB%) to take advantage of his speed. Coats could settle in as a nice fourth outfielder with arguably more offensive upside than Josh Anderson, Mitch Maier, or Willie Bloomquist (and for less money). If Coats does make the opening day roster, keep him in mind for possible steals in AL-only leagues.

The Toronto Blue Jays were expected to ink veteran shortstop John McDonald to a one-year, $1.5 million contract, but instead it turned out to be a two-year, $3 million deal, making the decision even worse than it was. Yes, Marco Scutaro is on his way out of town (for two much-needed, high draft picks) but the club could have found a better way to spend $3 million. Although the sample size is small, UZR suggests McDonald is no longer a gifted fielder, and that he’s still getting paid based on his reputation from years past. And offensively, he’s a black hole. If he ends up getting the starting – or even a platoon – gig in Toronto, do not – under any circumstance – consider him in your deepest of deep fantasy leagues. His 0.7% walk rate from ’09 is good for a chuckle, though.

Perhaps the most intriguing move of the day was the waiver claim of Radhames Liz. The hard-throwing right-hander was picked up by San Diego from Baltimore, which was obviously having Daniel Cabrera flashbacks. The 26-year-old Liz has a killer fastball, in terms of velocity, but he has troubles finding the plate on most nights. This past season, he threw well in eight double-A starts, but imploded in triple-A and the Majors. He had three shots at the Majors with Baltimore over the span of three seasons and failed them all, compiling a 6.26 FIP (7.50 ERA) along the way in 110.1 innings. Despite sitting around 92-94 mph, Liz has never had success in the Majors with his heater – or his 84 mph change-up. His slider has shown the most promise in limited showings, with a rate of -0.2 wSL. San Diego, which plays in a cavernous park, could be the best thing to happen to Liz in his pro career. If he can show enough command/control in spring training, he could develop into a power arm for the bullpen… But it is a big “If.” Liz is certainly not a fantasy option at this point, but don’t forget the name just yet.

According to MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez, the Chicago White Sox have come to terms with Andruw Jones on a one-year, $500K contract with $1M in possible incentives.

Jones famously fell of the face of the Earth after inking a two-year, $36.2M deal with the Dodgers prior to the 2008 season. His wOBA in L.A. was a macabre .234. In just 238 PA with the men in blue, Jones managed to post -17.9 Park Adjusted Batting Runs.

Forced to take a minor league deal from the Rangers before the 2009 season (the Dodgers paid him to go far, far away), Jones was essentially a league-average batter in Arlington.

In 331 PA, Andruw batted .214/.323/.459. His wOBA was .338. After adjusting for the hitter-friendly nature of The Ballpark in Arlington, Jones posted +1.5 Batting Runs. He worked the count well (13.8 BB%), while crushing fastballs for a +1.28 run value per 100 pitches. Off-speed stuff caught him flat-footed, however: -1.25 runs/100 vs. sliders, -0.65 vs. curveballs and -0.41 vs. changeups.

Jones had just a .224 BABIP in 2009. The gut reaction is to say “fluke!” But Andruw’s BABIP since 2005 is .248. His career BABIP is .279.

Why might that be? Well, Jones hits a lot of fly balls. Andruw’s 49.5 FB% in 2009 was 12th-highest among batters with 300 or more PA. While fly balls are obviously beneficial to a slugger like Jones, they do have a lower BABIP than grounders. Also, Andruw pops the ball up frequently. His IF/FB% was 13.3 in 2009. Pop ups are near automatic outs.

Odds are, the 32 year-old won’t continue to post a BABIP in the .220’s. But his batted ball profile and track record suggest that he probably won’t see that BABIP skyrocket, either.

Still, Jones constitutes a nice, low-cost investment for the White Sox. He still has quality secondary skills (walks and power), and he’s guaranteed next to nothing in terms of salary. Bill James’ projections forecast a .335 wOBA for Andruw in 2010, while CHONE spits out a less-optimistic .323 mark.

The MLB.com article quotes White Sox GM Kenny Williams:

“This is an opportunity to add a power bat to the roster while improving our outfield depth,” White Sox general manager Ken Williams said in a statement. “With the addition of Andruw, Mark Kotsay and Omar Vizquel, we feel our bench is taking shape to be a strong asset heading into the 2010 season.”

Clearly, Chicago is not anticipating giving everyday AB’s to Jones next year. As a DH, he would basically be replacement-level. But if you feel that Andruw could play, say, +5 run defense in an outfield corner (he has a superb track record and hasn’t embarrassed himself in limited time in ’08 and ’09), he could be a league-average starter.

Jones is worth tracking as spring training approaches. The White Sox are looking at him as a depth signing, but the club is currently without a right fielder. And LF Carlos Quentin, slowed by Plantar fasciitis in 2009, has a career -5.3 UZR/150 between the outfield corners.

Andruw could be a fall-back option if other RF candidates aren’t appealing or if the Pale Hose give Quentin more time at DH. If he gets enough playing time, Jones still has enough bat to stay relevant in A.L.-only leagues.

Andruw Jones bashed three home runs last evening, taking his total up to 14 long balls for the season. Jones’ triple-slash line rests at .250/.348/.581, with a wOBA of .392. On a per-at-bat basis, Andruw has by far been Texas’ most productive hitter. Can you believe this is the same fellow who had to settle for a one-year, $500K deal this past winter?

One year ago, Jones was public enemy number one in Los Angeles. The ink was barely dry on the Curacao native’s two-year, $36.2M pact before the questions started rolling in. Jones looked to be following the David Wells training regimen, and a balky knee bothered him throughout the season. Jones produced one of the most execrable lines that you’ll ever see while in L.A. In 238 trips to the dish, Andruw “hit” .158/.256/.249, which translates to a wOBA of .234. For reference, Tony Pena Jr.’s career wOBA is .238.

Jones’ plummet was difficult to foresee. He entered the 2008 campaign at a listed age of 31. Subjectively, a player with a broad-based skill set such as Andruw’s would seem to be a good candidate to age well. During a “down” 2007 season, he was worth 3.6 Wins Above Replacement, a near-All-Star level of performance. Yet, he just couldn’t hit anything. It scarcely mattered what the opposition decided to toss, Jones would be headed back to the dugout accompanied by a smattering of boo’s:

Jones’ runs/100 pitches, 2008:

Fastball: -1.01
Slider: -1.38
Cutter: -7.67
Curveball: -3.49
Changeup: -2.86
Splitter: -7.51

Despite his macabre work on the West Coast, the Rangers decided to give Jones an opportunity to make the club. Texas’ no-risk acquisition has rewarded them, big time. Jones had severe issues making contact last season (36.4 K%), but he has reduced his K rate to a more reasonable 25% this season. After grounding out 47.8% of the time with the Dodgers (well above his 41.4% average dating back to 2002), Andruw has rolled over the ball 36.9% in 2009. There’s a big rebound in his number of flyballs hit (38.8% in ’08 to 46.7% in ’09).

Jones has jumped on fastballs this year, with a run value of +2.14/100 pitches. He’s also in the black against sliders (+0.84) and changeups (+0.90), while posting negative values against cutters (-0.52) and curves (-2.36).

In less than 200 trips to the plate, with limited time in the field, Andruw has already managed to accumulate 1.4 WAR. Jones has some relatively minor performance bonuses based on PA’s, but he has delivered a massive return on investment for the Rangers. It’s probably too late to snatch Jones off the waiver wire, but he looks locked in right now. Expecting this level of offense is likely unreasonable. But if he continues to hit anywhere near this well, the Rangers are simply going to have to find more AB’s for the former Braves star. Jones stumbled badly last year, but he’s back to being an asset.

Stock Up

Andruw Jones, Rangers

Remember the state of Jones’ career one year ago? He was coming off an incredulously bad beginning with the Dodgers (.159/.282/.250 last April), on his way to an apocalyptic .234 wOBA and -17.9 Batting Runs in just 238 PA. It was a startlingly abrupt fall for a guy who had posted 3.6 Wins Above Replacement in a “down” 2007 season. Essentially given a settlement package by the Dodgers to leave LA and never, ever return, Jones has crushed the ball thus far with the Rangers. The corpulent out-maker of ’08 is nowhere to be found, as the 32 year-old has a .507 wOBA (.333/.500/.718) in 52 plate appearances. With Jones channeling his inner Barry Bonds, David Murphy getting in touch with his inner Juan Pierre (.260 wOBA) and Josh Hamilton hitting the DL (finding his inner Milton Bradley?), Andruw should definitely be on your radar.

Dexter Fowler, Rockies

A lanky 6-4 center fielder endowed with a full complement of tools, Fowler is off to an excellent start with Colorado. Aside from his five SB bonanza versus Padres righty Chris Young, Fowler has a .363 wOBA in 82 PA after jumping straight from Double-A. He’s working the count well (10 BB%, 19.7 Outside-Swing%), has shown some pop (.153 Isolated Power) and he’s 9-for-10 in the steals department (a welcome change for a guy whose raw speed had produced a pernicious 66.4% SB success rate over the past three minor league seasons). The 23 year-old switch-hitter has earned an everyday gig with the Rockies, and his broad skill-set makes him well worth acquiring.

Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox

When Youkilis slugged .569 and thumped 29 homers in 2008, most figured that his power numbers would regress more toward his career averages in 2009. After all, his career-high SLG% prior to that was .453, in 2007. So far, the 30 year-old has done his best to quash those thoughts: with 6 dingers and a .744 slugging percentage, Youkilis has produced a .528 wOBA that leads all major league hitters. After four straight seasons of decreasing walks and increasing Outside-Swing percentages (chronicled in more detail here), Youk is drawing free passes at a career-high 15.7% clip.

Adam Jones, Orioles

Jones was covered here a few weeks ago, but his significant progress with the lumber deserves further mention. Jones was among the most free swingers in the game during the 2008 season (his 36.2 Outside-Swing% was leaps and bounds above the 25.4% MLB average, and ranked 9th-highest among all hitters), but he’s curtailed that Francoeur-esque approach in 2009. His O-Swing% is down to a more reasonable 26.5%, and his walk rate his climbed to 8.8% from a paltry 4.6% in ’08. As a result, the 23 year-old has put himself in the hole with less frequency this season: his First-Pitch Strike% has fallen from 66% in 2008 to 59.1% in 2009 (57.6% MLB average). No, he won’t come anywhere close to hitting .355, but Jones’ more enlightened plate approach is a welcome sight.

Yovani Gallardo, Brewers

Gallardo has been every bit the ace he was billed as, with a slick 3.78 K/BB ratio and a 3.37 FIP. He’s benefitting from a .220 BABIP, but with 8.83 K’s per nine, 2.34 BB/9 and a greater number of grounders (47.7 GB%, compared to a 38.7% career average), Gallardo has the skills to remain among the very best in the NL.

Stock Down

David Ortiz, Red Sox

During the off-season, I wondered if the days of “Big Papi” were now a relic of the past, to be replaced by the much-less-catchy “Medium Papi” era. Right about now, Boston would love to have even a mildly productive Papi: the 33 year-old has a sordid .271 wOBA in 114 PA. Ortiz has been uncharacteristically impatient at the dish: his 28.2 Outside-Swing% is well above last year’s 20.6% mark and his 18.3% career average. He’s also making more contact on those outside pitches (59.4 Outside-Contact%, 53.4% in 2008), likely meaning he’s been making more weak contact on “pitcher’s pitches” off the plate. Combine the hacking with an ISO that looks like a misprint (.094) and a tendency to get jammed (his Infield/FB% is 18.6%, compared to an 8.3% career average), and you have a fellow who has produced -6.8 batting runs on the season.

Daniel Cabrera, Nationals

The Nats brought in Cabrera from the O’s this past offseason, hoping to find even remnants of the 6-7, hard-throwing groundball pitcher who looked highly promising during the middle part of the aughts. Unfortunately, Cabrera’s skills have eroded even further this season. His K rate (just 4.75 in ’08, after sitting in the 7-9 range earlier in his career) has dropped to a microscopic 3.33 per nine innings, and he’s issuing an absurd number of free passes (6.29 BB/9). Cabrera sat at 96.2 MPH with his heater in 2005, yet he’s barely cracking 90 this season (90.5 MPH, down over 2 MPH from last season).

Perhaps in recognition of his diminished fastball, Cabrera is mixing in more breaking pitches: his league-high fastball usage in 2008 (82.5%) has been ratcheted down to 67.9%, with more sliders and changeups instead. Unfortunately, he has next to no control of those secondary offerings, either: just 41.8% of his pitches have crossed home plate (48.9% MLB average). The result of all this ugliness is a 5.72 FIP. Cabrera won’t turn 28 until the end of the month, yet it seems as though he’s completely lost the ability to pitch at the major league level within a span of four seasons.

Joe Saunders, Angels

How long can Saunders keep this act up? He posted a 3.41 ERA last season, but a low whiff rate (4.68 K/9) and good fortune on balls in play (.267 BABIP) indicated that regression would find him: his FIP was a less-impressive 4.36. In 2009, Saunders has posted an identical 3.41 ERA in 31.2 frames, yet his FIP has trailed further south (4.87), while his strikeout total (2.56 K/9) would make Kirk Rueter blush. Again benefitting from a low BABIP (.252), Saunders is a great sell-high candidate.

Travis Hafner, Indians

Wither Pronk? Hafner (coming off an ugly, injury-marred 2008 season) had been doing his best “Hulk Smash” impression in the early portion of the season, posting a .394 wOBA and a .270 ISO. Unfortunately, his surgically repaired shoulder again acted up, pushing him to the DL. On the positive side, Hafner’s absence should open the door for the recently recalled Matt LaPorta.

Oliver Perez, Mets

Perez’s scattershot control has come completely off the rails in 2009. Never known for painting the corners, Perez has issued 8.72 BB/9 this year, with a near-ten ERA and a 6.17 FIP. When he’s not walking the yard, Ollie has surrendered line drives at a 29% clip. Batters have understandably plastered the lumber to their shoulders, chasing Perez’s outside offerings just 13.2% of the time (the lowest rate among starters). The 27 year-old’s fastball is coming in at 89.2 MPH (down two ticks from last year). Is Perez hurt? And if not, isn’t that almost worse?

Earlier today, we reflected upon the impressive performances turned in by Marlon Byrd and Nelson Cruz in 2008. While both could provide some value in 2009, it probably wouldn’t be wise to expect repeat performances. Now, let’s turn our attention to a guy who has nowhere to go but up (Andruw Jones) and a sophomore fighting to stay in the lineup (David Murphy).

It’s difficult to avert one’s eyes away from Jones’ abrupt, dramatic fall from grace; his 2008 season was the baseball equivalent of a car wreck. Andruw seemed well-positioned to rebound from a down 2007 season:

2006: .375 wOBA, 12.7 BB%, 22.5 K%, .269 ISO, .270 BABIP
2007: .314 wOBA, 10.9 BB%, 24.1 K%, .191 ISO, .248 BABIP

After a monster 2006 campaign, Jones saw his wOBA fall over 60 points. However, there were some reasons to remain sanguine about the long-time Brave. While his power was down in 2007, a .190+ ISO is still nothing to sneeze at, and his control of the strike zone remained largely unchanged. With an uptick in his BABIP, Jones figured to rebound from his .222/.311/.413 showing.

Suffice it to say, that didn’t occur. Signed to a two-year, $36.2 million by the Dodgers, Jones showed up to spring training looking a good 20 to 30 pounds overweight. Perhaps not coincidentally, he battled knee problems and posted a line that made Chin-Lung Hu feel better about himself: in 238 PA, Jones “hit” .158/.256/.249, striking out 36.4% of the time. Despite that minimal playing time, Jones manged to compile -17.9 batting runs.

Jones’ career cliff dive is flabbergasting. 32 in April, the Netherlands Antilles native appeared to possess the sort of broad skill set that would age well: he had patience and power at the plate, but he supplemented that with athleticism that allowed him to cover large swaths of territory in center field- check out his UZR/150 totals on his player page. Projecting where Jones goes from here is a fool’s errand, but it would be prudent not to completely write him off just yet.

As unbelievably macabre as his ’08 work was (the Dodgers gave him a unique severance package to go far, far away, and Jones is in Rangers camp on a $500K minor league deal), Jones is not that far removed from being a valuable commodity. His defense in center was still above-average even with all the extra girth, and Josh Hamilton (-16.4 UZR/150 in CF) is best off in an outfield corner. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities than Andruw works his way onto the 25-man roster.

While Jones is looking to pick up the charred remains of his career, Murphy is still in the early stages of his big league stint. The 27 year-old lefty was acquired from the Red Sox (along with toolsy outfield prospect Engel Beltre and low-upside southpaw Kason Gabbard) for Eric Gagne (speaking of charred careers..) in a July 2007 swap. Blocked in Boston, Murphy saw a good deal of work for the Rangers last season, batting .275/.321/.465 in 454 PA.

The former first-rounder from Baylor was often disappointing in the power department in the Sox farm system (the 6-4, 205 pounder slugged just .407 during his minor league career), so the .190 ISO with Texas was surprising. Still, there does not appear to be a whole lot of upside here: Murphy is in that age range where what you see is generally what you get. The overall package of mild plate discipline (career 7.2 BB%), solid contact (17.3 K%) and average power make Murphy appear as more of a good fourth outfielder than a guy you want patrolling an outfield corner on a day-in, day-out basis.

Brandon Boggs and Frank Catalanotto bear passing mention, though neither projects to soak up many AB’s in 2009. Boggs, a switch-hitting 26 year-old, has a history of working the count and striking out in excess of 30% of his trips to the plate in the minors. Both of those trends continued with the Rangers last season (13.5 BB%, 32.9 K%, .324 wOBA in 334 PA). A good athlete who can draw a walk, Boggs could be a decent extra outfielder, but the contact issues preclude hopes for more than that. Catalanotto will make $4 million in 2009, though his role and utility to the club are not readily apparent. The soon-to-be 35 year-old is the 5th outfielder and backup first baseman. If Jones makes the club, Catalanotto might get the boot.