Archive for Alberto Callaspo

There is no greater intersection of fantasy and ‘real’ baseball analysis than the Spring Position Battle. How better to reap the rewards of good number-crunching than the correct prediction of the winner of the lion’s share of playing time at a given position? It’s one of fantasy baseball’s best moments.

And there’s no easier place to look for this feeling than the worst teams in baseball. The worse the team, the younger the team, the more likely they’ll allow an inexperienced young man to steer the helm at a given position. The Pirates, for example, currently have 30(!) players with three years or fewer experience on their 40-man roster.

Follow this string of thought to the end, and you’ll inevitably end up looking at the team being run by the worst GM in baseball (if Tim Marchman is to be believed). There might be some debate about whether or not it’s more important to feature your best players up the middle, but it’s got to be a given that it’s not a good sign to go into camp not knowing who is going to make up your keystone combo. (The name of that combo should really be a clue.)

So we come to the Royals. At the incumbent starting shortstop position stands Yuniesky Betancourt. By WAR, he was the worst position player that qualified for the batting title last year, costing the Royals $2.2 million on top of his $3.375 million salary. He accomplished this (little) feat by walking only 4.1% of the time while also displaying below-average speed (3.9 speed score, 5.0 average) and power (.106 ISO, .155 MLB average). The worst part for such a ‘key’ defensive position? He had a -23.9 UZR/150 last year, which would be less worrisome if he didn’t also feature a negative rating for his career. I’m struggling to find something good to say, but apparently his demeanor can be even worse than his performance.

Let’s just say he doesn’t offer too much of an obstacle, should, say, Mike Aviles step to the fore. Aviles was once a too-old for his leagues prospect that tore his way through to the major leagues with good contact rates and not much else. He was once over-rated, yes, but now seems under-rated. His injury hurt his good contact rates (90.7% in the zone down to 85.6% last year) and sapped his average power (.155 ISO down to .067 last year). As exhibits in his favor, I submit his minor league ISO (.167) as well as minor league walk and strikeout rates that were virtually identical to his rookie year numbers. Aviles may not have been as good as he looked his rookie year, but he wasn’t as bad as he was last year.

In defense of his defense, there’s no real evidence that it’s terrible, despite the fact that he’s played all over the diamond and his general manager had the (misguided) idea that he needed to acquire another shortstop. His UZR/150 was great in his rookie year (+31.6 UZR/150) and bad last year (-12.7 UZR/150), but Total Zone had him as a positive defender at shortstop in the minors. The Fan Scouting Report pegged him as better than Betancourt even in his poor ’09. Aviles scored better than his competitor/teammate in every category… but arm strength. And now he’s coming off of Tommy John surgery. On the other hand, we must consider the case of Cesar Izturis, who had TJ surgery in 2005 and last year the fans say he sported an arm that was a little better than Stephen Drew‘s and a little worse than Jason Bartlett’s. Izturis had surgery on 9/16/2005 and returned in mid-June 2006. Aviles had his surgery 9/07/2009.

The normal caveats apply. This is is the Royals, we have no idea what’s going on at second base with Alberto Callaspo and Chris Getz (a post for another time), and every recovering arm is different, but in the interest of being unequivocal: By mid-June Mike Aviles should be starting at shortstop for the Royals.

When we checked the second base position on Thursday, it seemed that the position offered a lot of empty batting average place holders that can be scooped up late in a draft. Freddy Sanchez, Skip Schumaker and possibly Placido Polanco (once he gets himself a new job) all should hit over .300 next year and also won’t do anything else for you. They key is to find a guy that can give you something other than a bucketful of singles that you can draft in the same neighborhood.

Is Martin Prado that man? Prado could be the rare player that puts up better results in the major leagues than he ever did in the minors. He amassed over 2100 plate appearances in the minors, with a .393 slugging percentage. 850+ plate appearances into his big league career, he’s sporting a .450+ slugging percentage. Will the good times continue for the man that was just declared the starting second baseman for the Braves in 2010?

The good news is that his power profile actually took a step forward last year. His HR/FB went up (from 2.8 to 7.6%) while hitting more fly balls (from 35.3% to 36.5%). His ISO went up from .140 to .158, too. Also heartening is the fact that these numbers, though modest, have stayed relatively steady while in the majors. His BABIP looks a little high (.339 lifetime) but his xBABIP for his career (.316) is also above-average, and his high line drive rates (20.4% career) are healthy as well. We also know that Prado can handle the most common pitch in baseball (+15 runs on the fastball). Although it’s a little nerve-wracking to look at his anemic minor league numbers, Prado is a good bet to hit over .300 with 15 home runs in a full season of starter’s innings.

A newly minted position battle in Kansas City should produce one good sleeper out of two very different players. You own Chris Getz for steals and Alberto Callaspo for a little pop and batting average (a lot like Prado, actually).

Callaspo has a lot going for him. He repeated his good Royals debut in 2009 and instantly went on 2010 sleeper lists. He’s a high-contact hitter (91% career contact rate) with sneaky wheels (4.1 career speed score) and a good line drive stroke (19.3% career), so a good batting average is a steady part of the package he brings to the table. The biggest positive in 2009 was that he added a little power by vastly improving his fly ball rate (from 27.5% to 41.9%), but it’s the power that goes in and out for him. Just check his oscillating slugging percentage and fly ball rate for proof.

Defense will have to be part of the discussion, and Callaspo suffers by both not being great at second base (-7.5 UZR/150) and also by being capable all around the infield (400+ innings of positive UZR at SS and 3B). Getz was better defensively at second and also doesn’t boast the same history of utility play. It’s hard to see how much the Royals value defense, but this has to be a chip in Getz’ favor.

It’s not like Getz doesn’t have his own things going for him on offense. Obviously, he has plus speed (26/29 stolen bases in 117 career games), but he needs to put up a solid batting average to win the position because his slugging ability is inferior to Callaspo’s. In the high minors since 2006, Getz has walked close to 10% of the time, and when he had a BABIP near .280, he had a batting average like his poor 2009 season. But when he had a BABIP over .320, his batting average jumped to .300. Give Getz a .300 batting average and five or six steals in spring training and I believe you are looking at your new Royals starting second baseman. Callaspo may still have value as the org’s super-utility guy, especially since there are other holes on the infield (1B and SS) and also some oft-injured guys on that squad. In any case, Getz’ speed is the only plus fantasy tool between these two players, so therefore he is a step ahead for fantasy purposes.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Chris B. Young (33%) – It has been a brutal season for Young, who currently finds his average beneath the Mendoza line. But he has 4 HR in nine games since his recall from Triple-A, including a 3-HR game. Power like that is usually not sitting on the waiver wire and for those hoping to move up in HR, it is a gamble worth taking that he can hit a few more the rest of the month. Young had 32 HR in 2007.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Wade Davis (24%) – By now everyone is aware of Davis’ major league debut, when he allowed just three hits and one run in seven innings and struck out nine batters. He reached 94 on the radar gun and averaged 92.2 in his first start for Tampa Bay. In parts of two seasons in Triple-A, Davis was 14-10 with 195 strikeouts in 211.2 IP.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Chris Getz (17%) – Back from a strained right oblique, Getz is batting .333 with 4 SB in seven games after being out for nearly three weeks. The average probably will not be that good for the rest of the year but Getz does bring speed to the table. If you are looking for steals down the stretch, he can be a valuable addition.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Tim Redding (3%) – In his last three games, all against teams in the playoff hunt, Redding is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA with 15 SO in 18.1 IP. He spent a good deal of time this year in the bullpen but Redding should be in the rotation for the rest of the season. He is not as glamorous as a hot rookie like Davis, but he throws strikes and has a chance to pick up a few wins down the stretch.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Alberto Callaspo (49%) – A second baseman with a good AVG and decent R totals, Callaspo is a starting quality player. Recently he has been on a hot streak with RBIs, too. In his last 15 games, Callaspo has .302-1-10-5-1 line, with eight of those RBIs coming in the past five games.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Scott Baker and trade Josh Outman last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Juan Rivera – Playing time has been an issue throughout Rivera’s career, but he seemingly has nailed down the starting job in left field this year. His ISO is nearly identical to last season; the big thing for Rivera this year is a more normal BABIP. After suffering through a .242 mark last year, he has a .313 one this season. Updated ZiPS shows him finishing the year with a .297 AVG and 18 HR and that may be selling him short in homers. Owned in less than 11 percent of ESPN leagues, Rivera is a nice cheap option for AVG and HR.

John Danks – Owners were expecting more than a 4-5 record with a 4.81 ERA in the middle of June. In his last three outings, he is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA. But Danks is on a career-best strikeout pace, with an 8.15 K/9. Also, he has been a little unlucky with a 14.1 percent HR/FB rate. Danks’ ERA is already 0.36 runs above his FIP and with a little better HR rate going forward, he could turn in an ERA under four for the remainder of the year.

Stephen Drew – It has been a bad start of the year for most of the top shortstops and it seems there is a different SS on the “acquire” part of this list each week. A hot streak the last two weeks has gotten Drew’s overall numbers near respectability. His overall peripherals look okay. However, the one area where he has room for improvement is his numbers in Chase Field, which for most other hitters is a great hitting park. Drew has a home BABIP of .269, which has led to a .247/.318/.433 slash line. In 2008, Drew had a .321/.361/.559 slash line in his home park.

John Smoltz – After five rehab starts in the minors, Smoltz is on the verge of being called up to the Red Sox. He has gone six innings in each of his last two outings, although he was roughed up in his last start, when he allowed four runs. Overall, the minor league numbers look good, not great. But Smoltz is a nice lottery ticket if he is a free agent in your league. He has a history of being very good when healthy and there is really no reason not to add him to your bench if he is out there on the waiver wire and see if he can hold up for the remainder of the season.

Alberto Callaspo – If you need a middle infielder, you could do far worse than picking up Callaspo from the waiver wire. He probably is not going to give much in power, but the .300 AVG looks legitimate. His .330 BABIP looks high, but it matches the .327 he put up last year. In his last two full seasons in the minors he posted marks of .346 and .353 in the category.

Trade

Jason Kubel – At age 27, it should not be surprising that he is on target for a career year. But he is unlikely to maintain his current pace. The 17.5 percent HR/FB rate has led to a career-high .238 ISO, while he has never topped .200 previously. Kubel’s .349 BABIP is easily a career high, topping even his minor league numbers in the category. His SO/BB numbers and batted ball profile are similar to last season, indicating that perhaps some regression is right around the corner.

Max Scherzer – In his last two outings, Scherzer has gone 12.2 innings without allowing a run. He also got to pitch in Petco and against the Giants in those two games. His strikeout potential will always make him attractive to other owners, but it is hard to get excited about a guy who has a 5.73 ERA in his home park. Scherzer’s FIP is slightly higher than his ERA and his strand rate checks in at 79.2 percent. Rest of Season ZiPS sees a couple of more wins, but basically the same pitcher he has been the first part of 2009. If you can find an owner eager due to his strikeouts and recent performances, look to make a deal.

Bobby Abreu – It may be a little late to maximize his value, but Abreu is still on pace for 88 RBIs and 41 SB. But at this point he will be lucky to crack double digits in HR. The AVG is good but not great and he will need to maintain both that and the SB pace to make up for the lack of power. Abreu’s combination of skills will work for some teams but that power from an outfielder will be an albatross for many owners, especially since he was counted on for 15-20 HR at the beginning of the year.

Trevor Hoffman – One of the great stories so far this year has been the performance of Hoffman. But he has yet to give up a HR, has a 92.3 percent strand rate and a .218 BABIP. He has an outstanding 16 saves in 20 games. Shop him hard to teams looking for saves before the bottom falls out.

Adam Jones – There is a lot to like with Jones and hopefully if you deal him now you will get a nice return. But he also has a .372 BABIP and a 21.8 percent HR/FB rate, neither of which are likely to last. One of the hidden keys to Jones’ success this year has been the elimination of infield popups. Last year he had an IFFB% of 14.5 and in two previous partial seasons it was 17.6 and 13.3 percent. This year his mark checks in at 1.8 percent. Since infield flies result in an out nearly 100 percent of the time, this is a significant improvement for Jones. But it is another mark likely to regress going forward.