Life is full of guarantees… death, taxes, and Fernando Rodney finding himself on the closer hot seat. Its only April baseball and yet here we are again. Rodney fialed close it down Friday night with just a one-run lead. He would cough this one up in a fairly strange sequence of events.
Sometimes you try things and they don’t work out. The Brewers’ offseason signing of Neftali Feliz to be their closer always seemed a little superfluous, but it had a certain logic. The $5.35 million they paid for his services was less than what Joaquin Benoit and Koji Uehara got, and he was following up a comeback season with the Pirates. You could see the possibility of Feliz finding some consistency as the Brewers’ closer, and then they could always flip him at the trade deadline.
Feliz was 8-for-9 in save chances, but he was not consistent and certainly did not build up any trade value. When he coughed up a three-run homer to Mookie Betts in the top of the ninth on Thursday, Feliz was en route to his fourth loss. That was enough for Craig Counsell to make a change. He went on MLB Network Radio and said he was going to give Feliz “a break back there and get him right.” He also said Corey Knebel “has been outstanding,” but that doesn’t mean you should run out and pick Knebel up. Counsell told MLB.com he wants to use Knebel in a variety of situations, so essentially, the Brewers are going to a committee to close out games. Read the rest of this entry »
This season I had an idea for a recurring column called The Chacon Zone that never materialized (tip of the hat to @sporer for the name). The column would have been aimed at avoiding a common pitfall that I’ve succumbed to many times myself, improperly valuing saves and subsequently chasing them at my own peril. At what point does a closer’s poor performance negate the value of an occasional save?
I hoped to identify relief pitchers whose contributions in non-save categories would outweigh the Tony Cingranis and Brad Zieglers of the world. For a variety of reasons, most notably a lack of time and unusually low bullpen volatility early in the season, I never followed through. I’m hoping to rectify that with this end-of-season yet inaugural (?) edition of The Chacon Zone.
Average Draft Position or ADP is very valuable. I weighed NFBC’s ADP into my personal NFBC Draft Champion rankings equally to my position-adjusted composite projections (Baseball HQ combined with RotoChamp composites (Steamer, ZIP’s, etc.)) and the results were great. I used this, our pitcher arsenal scores and these hitter analytics as my three main draft tools.
I wanted to take evaluating draft position one step further. I want to understand how consistent each player is drafted near their ADP.
Howard Bender, who manages Mock Draft Army provided me with the raw draft results of 19 expert drafts (NFBC format: 2c-1b-2b-3b-ss-ci-mi-5of-9p). It’s not the largest sample, but they are expert drafts, and the drafts that I have taken part in definitely provided great references.
The Approach:
It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.
The Closer:
Addison Reed’s first season in Arizona went off with just a little bit of a hitch. He converted 32-of-38 saves and posted career bests in strikeout minus walk percentage (21.4%), swinging strike rate (13.1% SwStr%) and Skill-Interactive ERA (2.63 SIERA). Unfortunately, Reed lost a tick on his fastball for the third consecutive season and fell victim to some bad luck in the home run per fly ball rate department (13.9% HR/FB), which is partially to blame for the 4.25 ERA he posted in 62 appearances.
Read the rest of this entry »
There are a sundry of middle/set-up relievers that can succeed in the closer role if given the opportunity. A few obvious: Wade Davis if something happens to Greg Holland… Wil Myers for James Shields and who?!; Ken Giles if the Phillies can somehow find a trade partner for the grundle-grabber; and Brad Boxberger if not Jake McGee. I assume David Robertson signs elsewhere and Dellin Betances steps in.
Lets’ look at potential closers using reliever outcomes. Here are the average contact and balls in play-related outcomes for all relievers that qualified and specifically relievers with 10+ saves:
| Command: | K% | BB% | K-BB% | Ct% | SwStr% | Zn% | F-Str% |
| AVG for RP w/ > 10 SV | 0.27 | 0.07 | 0.19 | 0.75 | 0.12 | 0.46 | 0.63 |
| SD for RP w/ > 10 SV | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| AVG for all qualified RP’s | 0.22 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.77 | 0.11 | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| SD for all qualified RP’s | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Balls In Play: | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | GB/FB | HR/FB | LOB% | BABIP |
| AVG for RP w/ > 10 SV | 0.43 | 0.37 | 0.11 | 1.40 | 0.08 | 0.78 | 0.275 |
| SD for RP w/ > 10 SV | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 1.02 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.042 |
| AVG for all qualified RP’s | 0.45 | 0.35 | 0.09 | 1.50 | 0.09 | 0.75 | 0.289 |
| SD for all qualified RP’s | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.81 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.044 |
Our Filters:
Using these filters, we’re left with a robust list of above-average relievers beyond just closers (scroll down for the noted filters):
What happens if we use the command (K-BB%)/contact (Ct% and SwStr%) related averages for relievers with more than 10 saves this year?
…We’re left with some elite closers and then a few interesting names.
Last year, Danny Farquhar (just missed the list this year) had a top 20 swinging-strike rate – about a percent better than Fernando Rodney, but it was masked by his BABIP and left-on-base rate that killed his surface stats (4.20 ERA vs. 2.40 xFIP). This year, he actually outperformed his xFIP with a 2.66 ERA. After an early season MASH Report on Rodney’s velocity, I eyed Farquhar. At least keep him in mind next year if anything does happen to Rodney.
Josh Edgin (Mets for those of you that don’t know) has a top 65 contact-rate sandwiched between Mark Melancon and Jake McGee and even induced grounders 50% of the time. He has a pretty extensive repertoire as well. In order of usage: Fourseamer, Slider, Curve, Change, Cutter and Sinker. According to his Brooks Player Card, he has great swing and miss rates on his Curve (>56%), Cutter (50%), Slider (>42%) and Sinker (33%). Even his Change approaches 30%. This isn’t the case on his Fastball, but at 93+ MPH, it induces a decent amount of grounders (1.8 GB/FB). Keep in mind he had late-season elbow issues which effected his velocity by a MPH or so, but he could be called upon to get Mejia out of a jam. I like him better than an unhealthy Bobby Parnell and Jeurys Familia from a command perspective for another year.
Zach Duke did his best Craig Kimbrel impression prior to the R2M monster hitting him in August. Prior to 8/1, Duke had a 34.9% K-rate and 27.3 K-BB%. Kimbrel ended the year with a 38.9% K-rate and 28.3 K-BB%. I think August and September brought him back to his realistic value (~2.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). It will be interesting to see who closes for the Brewers if they let Francisco Rodriguez go. Both Duke and Will Smith have above average (even for RP w/ 10+ saves) swing-and-miss. Will Smith should have additional command next year, but Zack Duke induces grounders better which I like in my closers/in Milwaukee. They also have Jonathan Broxton. The hierarchy seemed to be K-rod-Broxton-Smith late last season. If that’s the case, they should use Duke more (former starter) and in higher leverage situations. He was equally solid against both lefties (.258 wOBA) and righties (.262 wOBA).
Oliver Perez everybody! I thought I could filter him out by his splits being a lefty, but like 2012, he was more effective vs. righties (and faced 44 more of them). The D-backs have Addison Reed, up-and-comer Evan Marshall as well as Daniel Hudson caught touching 97 MPH so if not by outcomes or splits, we can filter Perez out by opportunity.
Darren O’Day and Andrew Miller is part of one dominating Baltimore bullpen – one that gets referenced by anyone who thinks the Orioles can beat the Tigers in the ALDS. Notice that Zach Britton didn’t make either of the above lists! He was filtered out by his below average K-BB% (13.70%). It’s his 75+% grounder rate (hence the 81+% left-on-base rate and .215 BABIP) that keeps him elite in Baltimore. The only concern you can have with O’Day is a fastball velocity almost 2 standard deviations below the mean for relievers, but his arm angle combined with that slider still induces a 30+% whiff-rate on both pitches. Miller’s slider though is a world apart from O’Day’s: only Pedro Strop, Will Smith, Jake Diekman, Greg Holland and Oliver Perez induces more whiffs than Miller’s 55% according to Baseball Prospectus’ Pitchf/x Leaderboards. I doubt we’ll see a closer-transition next year in Baltimore unless Britton’s GB/FB ratio takes a drastic dive because his HR/FB ratio, which approached 18%, could be an issue.
An xBABIP review
On the last day of the season, @jeffwzimmerman provided me with Pitch xBABIP based on inside edge data. Let’s look at some of the bigger xBABIP differentials to keep in mind:
The last column depicts the z-score for BABIP differential. Francisco Rodriguez was expected to have a BABIP about 120 points above his actual BABIP. I highlighted (red/bad; green/good) the xBABIP z-scores as well so that you know whether or not to actually be concerned meaning sure Aaron Sanchez has the 5th biggest BABIP differential (over 2 standard deviations from the mean), but a .239 xBABIP is still utterly elite (3.34 SD’s from the mean). On the other side of the equation, it’s nice to see Evan Marshall, Carlos Martinez and Adam Ottavino (albeit in Colorado) with large BABIP differentials. Marshall and Martinez even have xBABIP’s over .5SD from the mean.
The last bit of fun
It was a very fun year to be doing bullpen reports for RotoGraphs. Aroldis Chapman broke the single-season strikeout rate of 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%). He struck out 52.5% of the hitters he faced. Andrew Miller (42.6%) and Brad Boxberger (42.1%) also made the top 10 seasons ever. Dellin Betances (39.6%), Wade Davis (39.1%) and Craig Kimbrel (38.9%) made the top 20. Chapman’s swinging-strike% of 20% beat ’12 Kimbrel by .8%, but he couldn’t pass ’04 Lidge, ’03 Gagne, ’04 Gagne, ’02 Gagne or ’05 Lidge. Chapman, Miller, Doolittle, Boxberger, Betances (Wade Davis and Kenley Jansen close behind) all had historical, top 20 K-BB rates. Relievers dominate this list: only ’99 Pedro Martinez (#12), ’00 Pedro Martinez (#21), ’01 Randy Johnson (#27) and ’01 Pedro Martinez (#28) make it into the top 30, but it’s clear that we have a growing list of elite relievers.
From a fantasy perspective, thanks to 45+ saves totals out of Holland and Kimbrel, we had two relievers ranked in the top 20 pitchers. If Chapman didn’t miss time and Betances and Davis consumed the closer role, we would have had 3 others. Last year, Craig Kimbrel and his 4 wins, 50 saves, 98 SO’s, 1.21 ERA and .88 WHIP campaign made him the 3rd most valuable pitcher. This year with Kershaw, Cueto, Felix and Kluber, it would have taken even more.
If we combined the 3 more dominating performances exclusive of saves this year: Aroldis Chapman’s K-rate (52.5%) and saves total (36), Dellin Betances IP (90) – who was dominating in his own right, Wade Davis’ ERA (1.00) and Wins total (9) and Sean Doolittle’s WHIP (.73) – let’s call this guy Aroldellin Dooldavis, we would wind up with a 10.95 z-sum…just above Corey Kluber (10.72), but under Clayton Kershaw (13.74), Johnny Cueto (12.95) and Felix Hernandez (12.50). Even 50 saves wouldn’t have done the trick (12.43 z-sum):
| Name | Age | IP | WHIP | zWHIP | ERA | zERA | W | zW | SO | zSO | SV | zSV | 5×5 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 26 | 198.1 | 0.86 | 4.23 | 1.77 | 3.53 | 21 | 3.38 | 239 | 2.95 | 0 | -0.34 | 13.74 |
| Johnny Cueto | 28 | 243.2 | 0.96 | 3.91 | 2.25 | 3.22 | 20 | 3.16 | 242 | 3.01 | 0 | -0.34 | 12.95 |
| Felix Hernandez | 28 | 236 | 0.92 | 4.29 | 2.14 | 3.37 | 15 | 2.06 | 248 | 3.12 | 0 | -0.34 | 12.50 |
| Aroldellin DoolDavis | 25 | 90 | 0.73 | 2.50 | 1 | 2.25 | 9 | 0.74 | 177 | 1.77 | 50 | 5.17 | 12.43 |
| Corey Kluber | 28 | 235.2 | 1.09 | 2.14 | 2.44 | 2.69 | 18 | 2.72 | 269 | 3.52 | 0 | -0.34 | 10.73 |
| Adam Wainwright | 32 | 227 | 1.03 | 2.79 | 2.38 | 2.72 | 20 | 3.16 | 179 | 1.80 | 0 | -0.34 | 10.13 |
| Jon Lester | 30 | 219.2 | 1.1 | 1.88 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 16 | 2.28 | 220 | 2.59 | 0 | -0.34 | 8.86 |
| David Price | 28 | 248.1 | 1.08 | 2.40 | 3.26 | 0.89 | 15 | 2.06 | 271 | 3.56 | 0 | -0.34 | 8.56 |
| Chris Sale | 25 | 174 | 0.97 | 2.68 | 2.17 | 2.43 | 12 | 1.40 | 208 | 2.36 | 0 | -0.34 | 8.52 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 24 | 217.1 | 1.09 | 1.97 | 2.98 | 1.35 | 18 | 2.72 | 219 | 2.57 | 0 | -0.34 | 8.27 |
| Zack Greinke | 30 | 202.1 | 1.15 | 1.18 | 2.71 | 1.78 | 17 | 2.50 | 207 | 2.34 | 0 | -0.34 | 7.46 |
| Max Scherzer | 29 | 220.1 | 1.18 | 0.94 | 3.19 | 0.93 | 18 | 2.72 | 252 | 3.20 | 0 | -0.34 | 7.45 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 28 | 199.2 | 1.07 | 2.02 | 2.66 | 1.85 | 14 | 1.84 | 182 | 1.86 | 0 | -0.34 | 7.22 |
| Julio Teheran | 23 | 221 | 1.08 | 2.13 | 2.89 | 1.57 | 14 | 1.84 | 186 | 1.94 | 0 | -0.34 | 7.13 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 25 | 215 | 1.12 | 1.61 | 3.14 | 1.01 | 14 | 1.84 | 242 | 3.01 | 0 | -0.34 | 7.12 |
| Garrett Richards | 26 | 168.2 | 1.04 | 1.96 | 2.61 | 1.64 | 13 | 1.62 | 164 | 1.52 | 0 | -0.34 | 6.39 |
| Greg Holland | 28 | 62.1 | 0.91 | 1.11 | 1.44 | 1.28 | 1 | -1.02 | 90 | 0.10 | 46 | 4.73 | 6.21 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 26 | 61.2 | 0.91 | 1.09 | 1.61 | 1.16 | 0 | -1.24 | 95 | 0.20 | 47 | 4.84 | 6.06 |
Reds at Pirates: The Josh Harrison show included a triple in the bottom of the 8th that gave the Pirates the lead for a Mark Melancon save (#25).
The back end of the Arizona bullpen was a mess last year. They tied with the Astros for the most blown saves in the league. J.J. Putz was spotty early in the season as the closer, and Heath Bell struggled in the role as well early in the summer. Brad Ziegler finally brought some stability to the role as he saved 13 games and blew only two after taking over the role in early July. But the D’Backs front office obviously didn’t feel comfortable with Ziegler maintaining the closer job, so they acquired Addison Reed in the offseason.
The bullpen should be much better this year, in part because of the added depth Reed gives them. But they should also be better because of some positive regression for Putz and David Hernandez.
Episode 89
The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Skype was being a bit wonky today so apologies in advance for any audio issues during the podcast.
As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music
Approximately 61 min of joyous analysis.
FSTA draft results mentioned several times in the show
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