Archive for Adam LaRoche

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, and second basemen.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place. Oh, another note: these rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

It’s probable that Albert Pujols is a tier of his own. He is a true stud in every category when compared to his peers. But without the 15 or so steals, he might belong right along side the other two metronomes in Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera, two young studs at the position who are virtual locks for a plus batting average 35+ home runs, and gobs of runs and RBI. There’s not much to say here other than, since this is a deep position, it’s worth considering comparable middle infielders over these guys – just look how long and balanced this list is.

The third tier has three players that could, in the right year, outperform guys in the second tier. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Adrian Gonzalez have all had years with power production that has eclipsed that of the two players above them. But they also have their issues. Fielder alternates medium-power years with high-power years, Howard won’t ever put in a plus batting average with his high strikeout rates, and Gonzalez would be more exciting if only he could get his batting average out of the ‘neutral’ territory and into ‘plus’ like the guys in tier two. Maybe, when he walks fewer times with his next team as Dave Cameron seems to have predicted, his BABIP will also regress to his career levels and his batting average will rise, though it’s hard to predict anything more than a .280 number there.

The middle tier provides some real opportunity for value. Each and every member of this tier could easily hit .300 with 30 home runs and good run production next year. Justin Morneau, Lance Berkman and Kendry Morales have all done it before, and Kevin Youkilis has gotten about as close as you can get. Joey Votto seems poised to join their ranks with a full year of strong play. It’s also a well balanced tier – the aging sluggers on their way down sit in front of Youkilis, who seems to have found his niche with a good batting average and modest power for a first baseman. Votto and Morales sit behind him until they prove they can consistently provide more power.

The next tier is called the ‘Dan Uggla‘ tier. These guys will give you power, but in rotisserie baseball you’ll also need to work hard to over come Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena’s poor batting averages. In head-to-head competition, their value increases because of the option of punting batting average, but in rotisserie you really need to try and compete in every category and their big minus signs are a dark cloud over the rest of their positive contributions.

The last tier could produce some tier-jumpers if the stars align. Should Derrek Lee continue to hit 45% of his balls in the air, he may jut hit another 30 home runs, which would put him in tier four. Billy Butler is still hitting too many worm-burners (47.7% groundballs career), but if can get a little lift into those balls, he’s shown that he’s a strong producer in batting average. At 30 years old, it seems that Adam LaRoche is a strong bet to continue producing at the same mediocre level going forward. He’ll probably drop off the list when a young guy steps forward next year and joins the crowd, but with the strikeout rates that Chris Davis (34.7% career) and Russell Branyan (38.9% career) sport, it’s hard to rely on them to even keep their jobs all year in 2010.

The Boston Red Sox acquired veteran first baseman Adam LaRoche from the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday for two minor league prospects: shortstop Argenis Diaz, and right-handed pitcher Hunter Strickland. Make no doubt about it, this was a salary dump by the Pittsburgh Pirates (and another shrewd move by a very smart organization… Boston).

Diaz, the better of the two prospects acquired by Pittsburgh, has the upside of… Jack Wilson. Now, if the Pirates can avoid paying him $6 or $7 million a season, than he might have some value. Truthfully, though, his value is tied solely to his glove, as he’s an above-average defensive player. With the stick, he’s probably going to produce Ramon Vazquez or Adam Everett numbers. Diaz doesn’t hit for power (.058 ISO), he doesn’t hit for average (.253 average in ’09), he doesn’t walk (7.0 BB%) and he doesn’t steal bases (His seven steals this year are a career high). Yes, he’s only 22 but there is really nothing to build on. Not one of those four categories I mentioned has seen an improvement in four pro seasons.

Strickland is a right-handed starter who doesn’t throw overly hard and relies on command and control to succeed. His fastball ranges 87-91 mph and he can add a couple more miles per hour when needed. He also has a slider and changeup. His numbers over the course of the past two seasons have been respectable. In 2009 in low-A, Stickland has allowed 85 hits in 83.1 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of 1.40 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.51 K/9. Homers have been a problem with 11 leaving the yard (1.19 HR/9). He has a 3.35 ERA, but a 4.34 FIP.

The truth is that this trade probably won’t help you if your a fantasy baseball manager. Diaz’ bat is about a year away from the Majors, but he does provide some depth if (when) Pittsburgh accepts what Wilson’s true trade value is and he’s dealt in another salary dump. Strickland is a long way away from reaching his ceiling as a middle reliever, or maybe a No. 4 starter.

Where this move helps fantasy owners is in the playing time that this should free up for Steve Pearce in Pittsburgh. It’s about time that he receives a fair (and extended) shot at playing regularly in the Majors. I hope this trade is not a move to free up first base for Garrett Jones, who is significantly playing over his head right now (Hello, Kevin Maas). At the age 28, Jones’ ceiling is limited.

Stock Up

Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners

By now, everyone is well aware of Gutierrez’s Road Runner act in center field (the former Indian holds a +20.9 UZR/150 figure in 2009). But how many people realize that the 26 year-old has turned in a quality offensive season as well? Gutierrez owns a .352 wOBA, with 12 home runs and a .295/.355/.460 line in 335 PA. That translates to +8.2 Batting Runs, which ranks in the top 10 among center fielders. Combine the sweet range with an above-average bat, and you have a guy who quietly ranks 2nd in Wins Above Replacement in center field (3.5 WAR).

Brett Anderson, Athletics

Originally a 2nd-round pick by the D-Backs back in 2006, Anderson is most often noted for his polish and four-pitch mix. But he has as nearly as much upside as any young arm in the game as well. During his rookie year, the 21 year old lefty has punched out 6.61 batters per nine innings while issuing 2.36 BB/9, good for a 4.23 FIP. Equipped with a 92 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 77 MPH curveball and an 83 MPH changeup, Anderson has placed 51.2% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3 % MLB average).

If anything, those numbers underrate Anderson’s work. He posted a 2.0 K/BB ratio in April and 1.86 in May, but improved to 3.57 in June and 6.00 in July. Take a look at the velocity readings on Anderson’s two most utilized pitches (fastball and slider) over the course of the season, along with their Runs/100 pitches value:

April: 91 MPH fastball (-0.47 Runs/100 pitches), 82.7 MPH slider (+1.62)
May: 91.4 MPH fastball (-3.32), 82.4 MPH slider (-0.63)
June: 92.6 MPH fastball (-1.73), 83.8 MPH slider (+4.41)
July: 94.5 MPH fastball (+4.09), 85.6 MPH slider (+7.03)

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Also a 21 year-old southpaw, Kershaw has mauled hitters for 8.78 K/9 in 2009. With a searing 94 MPH fastball (+1.5 runs/100, fourth among starters) and a Looney Tunes curveball (+1.79), Kershaw has managed to thrive in the majors despite walking 5.06 hitters per nine innings, with a first pitch strike percentage (52.9%) that’s about 5 percentage points below the MLB average. While better control and a third offering to keep from losing the strike zone vs. righties stand between Kershaw and acedom, it’s frightening to think that he can already dominate despite being so far from fully developed.

Seth Smith, Rockies

Smith has found himself in the starting lineup often as of late, at the expense of Carlos Gonzalez. The 26 year-old lefty hitter holds a career .297/.392/.495 line in 329 major league PA, and ZiPS calls for a .298/.369/.470 triple-slash for the rest of the 2009 season. A disciplined hitter (17.6 outside swing%, compared to the 25% MLB average), Smith can be a nice asset to fantasy owners. He’s not well-known and likely needs to be seated against tougher lefty pitching (his career minor league line vs. LHP is a patient-but-punchless .276/.360/.385), but Smith holds value in NL-only leagues and deep mixed leagues. Just keep an eye on the scheduled starter for the opposition, as he’ll likely only be plugged in against righties.

Roy Oswalt, Astros

It’s hard to believe, but Oswalt is now in his 9th season in the majors. Sometimes, I get the feeling that Houston’s ace doesn’t quite get the level of attention he deserves. While he’s never been the best pitcher in baseball, he consistently ranks among the top 25. The 31 year-old righty is just a pitching metronome, steadily humming along. 2009 is no different: Oswalt holds a 3.77 FIP, with 7.01 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9. His overall contact rate is down a tick (from 82.2% to 81.1%), while his percentage of contact within the zone has fallen from 88.1% in 2008 to 84.4% this season (87.8% MLB average). He has been at his best in July, with 17 K’s and just 2 free passes in 23 frames.

Stock Down

Jeremy Hermida, Marlins

Hermida is a exasperating player to watch. In the minors, he looked like a Brian Giles, as a lefty stick with exceptional plate discipline (.398 OBP, 18.5 BB%). After a bumpy beginning in the majors (.310 wOBA in 2006), Hermida posted a .372 wOBA as a 23 year-old in 2007. But instead of building upon that, Jeremy managed just a .321 wOBA in 2008, as his once-pristine plate discipline eroded (27.8 outside-swing% in ’08, compared to the 25.4% big league Avg).

He hasn’t fished at quite as many outside offerings this year (24 outside-swing%, with a 3 percent increase in walk rate). But, Hermida continues to hit more like a middle infielder than a corner outfielder. His ISO was .205 in 2007, but fell to .157 in ’08 and checks in at just .140 in ’09. He’s “only” 25, but Hermida just does not look like an everyday player at this point. A plodding outfielder (career -9.8 UZR/150) with platoon issues (career. 236/.316/.378 vs. LHP) who only pops the occasional double? Is that really all there is here?

Adam LaRoche, Pirates

An impending free agent, the elder LaRoche is doing the Pirates no favors in the club’s quest to place him in another uniform. On the positive side, the 29 year-old lefty batter has drawn walks at a career-high clip (11.5 BB%), while decreasing his first-pitch strike% for the third straight season (from 60.9% in ’07, 58.1 in ’08 and 55% this year; the MLB average is 58%).

On the other hand, LaRoche’s ISO (.193) has dipped from his .230 mark in 2008, and he has a .327 wOBA that just doesn’t stand out at all at first base. LaRoche clearly isn’t a poor player, but he’s just another face in the crowd at baseball’s most powerful position. The former Brave is a career .269/.338/.486 hitter; the average first baseman is batting .276/.362/.484 in 2009. There just aren’t many clubs who can look at that production and say, “that constitutes an upgrade for us.”

Trevor Cahill, Athletics

While fellow rookie Anderson is quickly figuring out the majors, Cahill is scuffling. The 21 year-old remains a fantastic young arm, and his struggles shouldn’t be entirely unexpected considering his occasional control problems in the minors (3.7 BB/9). But it’s clear that Cahill has a ways to go. He has whiffed only 4.11 hitters per nine frames, while showing neither sharp control (3.93 BB/9) nor worm-burning tendencies (47.3 GB%).

While in the minors, Cahill was noted for possessing knockout breaking pitches. Baseball America called described a “79-81 MPH knuckle-curve, a swing-and-miss pitch with hard downward movement” as well as “a low-80’s slider with cutter-like action.” In the show, Cahill has lacked trust in his breaking stuff. Trevor has tossed his curve less than 4% of the time, while using the slider about 6 percent. Both have been crunched (-1.86 runs/100 for the curve, -2.19 for the slider) in a small sample. I wonder if he tossed a few breakers that got hammered early on, and then went into “survival mode” and basically scrapped those pitches.

A.J. Burnett, Yankees

On the surface, Burnett’s first year in the Bronx appears to be going swimmingly (8-4 record, 3.81 ERA). However, his FIP is a less-shiny 4.71. A.J. has handed out far too many BB’s, with 4.61 walks per nine innings in 2009. His K rate is also down, from the mid-nine’s in 2007 and 2008 to 8.1 per nine this year. A .283 BABIP and a strand rate (79.5%) that’s about 8 percent above his career average have helped him stave off a climb in ERA to this point, but he’s going to have to sharpen his control. Perhaps noting Burnett’s wildness, opposing batters have swung at fewer pitches outside of the zone (24.3% in ’08, 20.7% in ’09).

Mike Pelfrey, Mets

The 6-7 sinkerballer has generated grounders at a 53.7% clip this year (up from 49.6% in 2008), but it’s hard to say Pelfrey has made a whole lot of progress this season. His K rate has dropped from 4.93 per nine innings in ’08 to 4.72 in 2009, while his walk rate has increased from 2.87 per nine to 3.23. Pelfrey has located just 46.6% of his pitches within the strike zone. Ironically, the former Shocker has seen his fastball effectiveness drop (-0.25 runs/100 pitches in 2009, +0.82 in ’08) just as his much-maligned breaking stuff has perked up (+0.91 for the slider, +1.68 for the curve).

Hopefully you were able to pick up Lance Berkman and trade Adrian Gonzalez last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Adam LaRoche – In 2008 he had a .764 OPS in the first half of the year and a .975 OPS after the break. In 2007 the numbers were .763 and .854. In his MLB career, LaRoche has a .787 OPS pre-AS break and a .907 OPS after the break. He has had a very solid first half of the season and if he maintains his career averages after the break, LaRoche could challenge for his best season yet, when he batted .285-32-90.

Luke Hochevar – His strikeout rate is poor (3.57) and his BABIP sits at .231 for the season. But Hochevar has hurled a Quality Start in four of his last five outings, pitching into the seventh inning in all four of those games, including one route-going performance. Hochevar has decent control and does not allow many fly balls. And he should improve upon his 60 percent strand rate going forward.

Willie Harris – Since taking over the CF job 10 days ago, Harris has 3 HR and 3 SB to go along with a .308 AVG. Harris has never been a star, but he did hit 13 HR a season ago. If you need a stopgap option in the OF, he is a waiver wire pickup to consider, with the ability to help in multiple categories. Also, he has played 10 games this year at 2B, which may make him eligible there in some formats.

Chad Gaudin – Back as a SP after spending most of last season in relief, Gaudin is piling up the strikeouts and maintaining a serviceable WHIP (1.39) despite a dismal 4.58 BB/9 mark. His FIP is over a full run beneath his ERA while his strand rate has room for improvement from its current 65.2 percent mark. Early in the month, Gaudin was forced into bullpen duty in an 18-inning game. He got rocked in his next start but has followed up with three Quality Starts. In that span, Gaudin has a 28/5 SO/BB ratio in 21 innings.

Garrett Atkins – Through his first 53 games, Atkins had a .189 AVG and was in the discussion for the worst player in fantasy baseball. Since then, he’s hit .519 in his last 10 games, although none of his other fantasy numbers have been noteworthy. But one category production is better than none and Atkins has a .240 BABIP despite a career .314 mark in the category. RoS ZiPS shows him with a .288-12-52-44-1 line the remainder of the season.

Trade

Ichiro Suzuki – There may be no more polarizing figure in fantasy baseball than Ichiro. Proponents point to his ultra-high AVG and SB and strong R numbers. So far, the proponents have been right. Ichiro’s .372 AVG has him as the 14th-best fantasy player, according to CBS Sports. He has a .391 BABIP. Ichiro had a .390 mark in 2007 and hit .401 in the category in 2004. Still, his career mark is .358 so some regression should not be a surprise. Also, Ichiro already has as many HR as he hit in the past two seasons and his HR/FB rate is double what it was a season ago.

Derek Lowe – His last three outings have really dragged down his overall numbers. Some may consider Lowe a buy-low option as a solid #2/3 fantasy pitcher simply going through a rough patch. But he is also a 36-year old with declining K/9 and BB/9 numbers. Lowe is getting fewer swings outside the zone and the famed sinkerballer has a career-worst GB%. The numbers could be even worse if Lowe did not have a career-best 4.4 percent HR/FB rate, roughly one-third of his career mark in the category. His velocity is down and Pitch Type Values shows his slider, which was such an effective pitch for Lowe last year, has been a below-average pitch this season.

Mark Reynolds – Fantasy players mostly avoided Reynolds on Draft Day this season, making him a late-round pick or waiver-wire fare. The conventional wisdom was that his power was not worth the low average. Whoops. Reynolds has raised his AVG 29 points, shown even more power than a season ago and added SB to his game. But it is time to sell high. Reynolds is unlikely to maintain his 28-SB or 45-HR pace. He has already surpassed his professional career high in steals and the 28 percent HR/FB rate is 10 points above last year’s mark.

Joel Pineiro – He has gained a lot of publicity lately for being the latest Tony LaRussa/Dave Duncan reclamation project. But Pineiro features a career-low 3.81 K/9 ratio and he is unlikely to maintain a 0.27 HR/9 rate.

Scott Rolen – His .332 AVG has been almost as big of a surprise as Rolen playing in 66 games so far, even with his bad back. He has a 17-game hitting streak with 10 multi-hit games. But he is a one-category performer, with just 5 HR and 29 RBI to go along with his gaudy AVG. And not surprisingly, Rolen has a .360 BABIP, which would be his personal best and is 46 points above his career mark.