Archive for Adam Jones

Balls In Play Expected Homers Leaderboard

Mike Podhorzer and Chad Young embarked on a journey–quest to find an offensive expected (x)HR/FB rate.

Based on batted ball distance and angle, you can go to Baseball Heatmaps (BHM) and find expected versus actual homers or verify HR/FB ratios through HR+FB average distance.

Here’s an uber simple descriptive balls-in-play (BIP) expected homer (xHR) formula:

xHR = PA*Contact%*OFFB%*HR/FB. Looking at the outcomes from last year we have the following list first ordered by the most likely regressions:

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How to Handle Different Categories: OBP

This is a subject I tackled last year, but the basic idea for this article is that people playing in leagues that use non-traditional roto categories may not be equipped with proper draft materials. Almost any set of rankings you can find online are compiled with the standard 5×5 roto categories in mind. Some sites may have rankings published specifically for leagues that replace batting average with OBP, but the vast majority assume standard categories. If you’re using a set of rankings from a site or magazine, you’re doing yourself a disservice unless those rankings were designed for OBP leagues.

I’ve compiled my own projections for 242 hitters to generate my own rankings, and I’ve generated rankings specifically for standard 5×5 leagues and leagues that have replaced batting average with OBP. I want to highlight the players who gain the most in OBP leagues and the players who are hurt the most when OBP replaces average. I base my rankings off a number Zach Sanders calls Fantasy Value Above Replacement (FVARz). Essentially I assign each player a value for each category and add them all up while adjusting for positional scarcity.

Below I’ve included two lists; one shows the players whose FVARz increases the most when OBP replaces average, and the other shows the players whose FVARz decreases the most. I’ve also included their ranking among hitters and auction values for both batting average and OBP leagues. Over on a site of which I’m the managing editor, TheFantasyFix.com, I’ve posted how the rankings and auction values change for all 242 hitters I have projections for when the switch is made to OBP. You can find that here. All values are based on 10-team leagues with 25-man rosters, 13 starting hitter slots and three bench slots. If you have questions about the methodology, the charts or anything else, hit me up in the comments. Read the rest of this entry »


RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and The Bust 02/12/2014

Episode 93

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Baltimore Orioles and the San Diego Padres

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 61 min of joyous analysis.

ADP results from NFBC

01:00:37

Daily Fantasy Strategy – 7/8/13 – For Draftstreet

When I was on The Sleeper and the Bust with Mike Podhorzer a few weeks ago, he told me about his process for finding value in daily contests. The basic idea is that he breaks the rest-of-season ZIPS projections down to a fantasy points per game basis and then compares that to cost to find the biggest values. As I’ve learned, that process takes a bit of work, so I’m going to walk you through it.

The first step is to get the rest-of-season ZIPS projections into a spreadsheet. You can find daily updated projections from the ‘Projections’ tab at the top of the site. Then you need to eliminate the stats and columns that are not needed in order to calculate how many fantasy points a player is projected to score for the rest of the year. But don’t delete the games column; you’ll need it later to calculate projected points per game. Read the rest of this entry »


Orioles Outfield: Depth Chart Discussions

If last year was any indication of what we can expect form the Orioles outfield, then fantasy owners are going to want to get in on the action again this season. The breakout season of Adam Jones was huge, the shortened but pleasant return to form of Nick Markakis was a nice surprise, and although injuries and match-up playing cluttered up left field most of the time, the O’s still managed to get decent production out of the spot on the whole. Jones and Markakis return again in 2013 and while left field is still being settled, should all go according to plan, the outfield should remain a quality source of fantasy production this year. Read the rest of this entry »


Adam Jones Just Got Stronger

C’mon readers of RotoGraphs, you didn’t really think I was going to let the year end without another piece on Adam Jones from me, did you? I was just waiting for the appropriate time and with the release of Zach Sanders’ Outfielder End of Season Rankings, that time is now. So scroll on down to number six, check out those numbers and $21 value and let’s talk about Baltimore’s number one outfielder. Read the rest of this entry »


Kicking Rocks: 10 Bold Predictions Re-Visited

With the season winding down, I thought now is as good a time as any to ‘fess up and have a little it of accountability.  I usually do a full article at the end of the season that includes all of my picks and pans for the season, which will come at the conclusion of the season, but this year we all did a piece in a series called 10 Bold Predictions.  It was “go big or go home” for many of us and we wanted to be as bold and as brazen as possible while still maintaining certain bounds of sensibility.  In looking back at mine, perhaps I was a bit overzealous… Read the rest of this entry »


Roto Riteup: April 25th, 2012

Today’s Roto Riteup is back in full, so that’s sort of cool.

• Chris Narveson has now undergone season-ending surgery on his left shoulder. Narveson was never a fantasy stud, but he was a good candidate for wins and a few strikeouts in NL-only leagues. Narveson may now be out in Milwaukee, depending on what happens with free agents to be Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. Even if you have him cheap in a very deep dynasty league, I’d cut bait.

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Howard Bender’s 10 Bold Predictions for 2012

So we’ve decided to turn this 10 Bold Predictions thing into a friendly competition amongst the RotoGraphs writers. Here are mine… Read the rest of this entry »


You Want Adam Jones

When building your supporting cast, finding a few breakthrough candidates is paramount to your success.  Hopefully your studs perform as they should and your late round sleepers find a way to outshine their draft positions, but on the chance that something goes awry, having some middle round breakthroughs could be the difference between winning your league and being an also-ran.  Drafting Orioles center fielder Adam Jones would be a great place to start.

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