Archive for Aaron Judge

On Monday, CBS Sports’ Chris Towers took to Twitter to put a bit of a scare into Aaron Judge’s hype-men and -women, posting the following set of images:

*whispers* less than most people are pretending pic.twitter.com/fUsNuMfRTn

— ADP Boy (@CTowersCBS) March 12, 2018

Frankly, I loved it. This word is overused, but, alas: it certainly “triggered” some of his followers. Folks were quick to defend Judge, shielding him from the likenesses he shares with Chris Davis that might, in some version of the near future, manifest in a similar player trajectory. Granted, much of praise for Judge was warranted; an additional 8 percentage points of walks elevates his floor a bit higher than Davis’. Fact of the matter, though, is Judge’s power has few modern comps — namely, Davis, Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Howard. And I’ve compared Stanton to Howard more than once, so the four of them share the same curiously constructed boat.

What caught my attention, though, aside from the similarities between Judge and Davis that are far more striking than most are willing to admit, is, perhaps surprisingly, the doubles column. In Davis’ monster 2014 campaign, he hit 17 more extra-base hits than Judge did in 2017. Seventeen! That’s no small number. And it got me thinking: a ratio of 52 home runs to 24 doubles is actually kind of alarming. They (whoever “they” are) say a season with lots of doubles but fewer home runs than expected portends more power in the following season. Testing that wisdom, conventional or not, is outside the scope of this post. What I’d rather test is the inverse: does a season with lots of home runs but few doubles (or, generally, other extra-base hits) portend less power?

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My favorite part of this year’s World Baseball Classic, aside from the baseball, obviously, was the television broadcasts’ frequent reference to players’ swing speeds. I was floored, even if only because I didn’t know (but should’ve known) we had the technology capable of measuring it. Regarding Major League Baseball and Statcast’s adoption of such a metric, a little birdy told me I shouldn’t hold my breath. Disappointed, I moved on.

Then yesterday, while fooling around in Baseball Savant’s Statcast database trying to diagnose the misalignment of Miguel Cabrera’s outcomes with his peripherals, I noticed the database query’s “sort by” function offered an option to sort by “estimated swing speed.” A quick Google search indicates to me the Statcast and MLB Advanced Media team(s) has (have) yet to formally announce this; sprint speed has been the more exciting recent development, apparently.

Not to me! I quickly got to work querying the data. I also quickly learned downloading the raw data files that underpin the swing speed summaries previously linked do not include swing speed, which is unhelpful. In other words, swing speed is not communicated to us from Baseball Savant’s organs on a play-by-play basis. I imagine this is by design. So, I was resigned to running a single query that summarized swing speed data at a high level: the average swing speed for every hitter with at least 100 at-bats in a given season, from 2015 through 2017.

Here’s what I found.

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Spring is here, and with it comes a renewed sense of optimism for yours truly. The never-ending cold rain and oppressive grayness of my first winter in Seattle is giving way to slightly warmer rain and a lighter shade of gray, and the sun even made an appearance last Tuesday. I’m more excited for baseball season than ever, seeing as I finally live in a major-league city for the first time in my life. Also, WrestleMania and Opening Day — objectively the best two days of the year — land on consecutive days in 2017.

Unfortunately, this time of year also means I get my annual opportunity to make a fool of myself with my Bold Predictions column. The last time I did well with these, I was still in my twenties and The Undertaker’s undefeated WrestleMania streak was intact. I’m not saying that turning 30 (or 31…or 32…) definitively altered my ability to make borderline-crazy-yet-somewhat-possible baseball predictions. However, right around that same time, I developed a bald spot on the top of my head. Without the protective layer of hair, a great many thoughts started escaping my head, and I became much less smart.

What’s changed now? I’m so glad you asked. I recently discovered the incredible Thought Screen Helmet! Originally intended to shield your brain from alien mind-control waves, it turns out that the Thought Screen Helmet not only keeps the aliens out, it also helps keep your thoughts in! Furthermore, the Thought Screen Helmet sports a great track record, with “Only one failure since 1998.”

With my Thought Screen Helmet firmly strapped in, I’m ready to unleash my new and improved Bold Predictions, now featuring occasional accuracy! Hopefully.

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