Archive for Aaron Heilman

In lieu of a Waiver Wire piece today, we’ll take a look at the worst bullpen in the major leagues. Because saves are saves, that’s why. And no fantasy owner is looking for All-Stars on the waiver wire (or no sane fantasy owner).

In the second-to-last game before the break, interim manager Kirk Gibson, who has not yet named a closer, was finally faced with a save situation. Who would he pick? Let’s run down the list of his available ‘talent:’

Aaron Heilman
With a strikeout-to-walk ratio that’s been under two for three years in a row, and an FIP that’s been closer to five than four over that same stretch, Heilman has shown us who he is, and it’s not good. It’s hard not to go over the top here, but this is the bare truth: under no circumstances should a decent team consider Heilman as their closer. Of course, this is not a decent team. But even a rebuilding team shouldn’t really consider for their closer position a pitcher with a 4.94 xFIP and 31 years in his rear view mirror. So let’s hope that Gibson had sense enough to move on… which he did, sort of.

Esmerling Vazquez
Vazquez is striking people out (9.79 K/9), and has a decent-enough xFIP (4.11), and is also young (27). But Vazquez also walks too many (4.75 BB/9), has a poor groundball percentage (34.2% this year, 40% career), and isn’t being used in high-leverage situations (0.94 gmLI). Of course, maybe this team isn’t creating enough high-leverage situations, so Vazquez actually looks like a decent option given the putridity of this bullpen. But no, in this game, on July 10th, Vazquez actually recorded his first hold since May 22nd by pitching his seventh-straight scoreless and fifth-straight walk-less appearance in the eighth inning. Vazquez is moving up the depth chart, but he’s not there yet. He’s worth watching, though.

Chad Qualls
The veteran had been pitching better since losing the closer title earlier in the month. That is to say, he had put together a string of four scoreless appearances from June 29th to July 5th. He had only walked two batters since June 9th. He had given up one home run since May. Of course, Qualls also had given up 13 earned runs since the beginning of June, so the record was spotty. Then there’s also the fact that he’s in the last year of his contract on a team going nowhere. There’s no real reason to play him for the future, especially when the luck is really not going his way (.468 BABIP! 50.5% LOB%!). Qualls is still a good pitcher, but does Arizona care?

Sam Demel
Demel is the dark horse. He came over in the Conor Jackson trade, and has been dealing ever since, on a level that seems commensurate with his minor league performances. He was the Triple-A closer in the A’s organization, and had been sporting an 8.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in Sacramento. Well, now in Arizona, he’s got a 8.25 K/9 and 1.50 BB/9 (and therefore a nice 3.03 xFIP). If he can continue exhibiting that control, he could be a great closer, but that’s no given, as you can see from his 4.5 BB/9 in the minors. On the other hand, he’s the only reliever in Arizona with a good groundball rate (52.9%). The problem is, he’s being rewarded with mop-up time in bad games (0.69 gmLI, and his past six appearances have come in games decided by an average of 6.33 runs). This meat is grabbing pine. Maybe Gibson will notice him eventually, but he didn’t on July 10th.

Juan Gutierrez
Not to ruin the ‘surprise,’ but Gutierrez was the winner, after Heilman came on in the top of the ninth and got two outs but left two on for Qualls, who came in and gave up two runs without recording an out. So Gibson actually reached for two guys before he got to Gutierrez, and not without reason. Gutierrez is not striking out a ton of batters this year (7.52 K/9) or career (7.87 K/9), walks a bit too much (3.62 BB/9), and has a major Achilles’ heal when it comes to groundballs (29% this year, 36% career). If the team goes young, Vazquez and Demel are better options. If the team goes with ‘experience,’ Qualls is a better option (if they can see past the bloated ERA).

In the end, the problem is that Gibson has no real solid options to go to. That makes it hard to predict what will happen. If a dynasty-leaguer is looking at the situation, it has to be Demel as the pickup, and he does look like the best pitcher in the pen right now. If a redraft manager thinks that Gibson will be forward-looking and can see past a bad ERA, it’s Qualls. If they want to go by Gibson’s first attempt, it’s Heilman. IF it’s who succeeded last, it’s Gutierrez. Good luck hunting!

It’s terrible to be inside on a Tuesday in the summer, but here are a couple players that will set your mind right by virtually putting you on the pitch to use a world cup metaphor. Either that, or they will help you win your league.

Aaron Heilman, Arizona (9% owned)
The worst bullpen in the majors is moving their closer out of the role according to AJ Hinch today. This, despite Chad Qualls being the only pitcher in the pen with an xFIP under four. Well, no matter, it looks like the team will be giving interim save chances to Heilman, the only pitcher in the bullpen with an FIP under four. Seriously, this pen is terrible – their league-worst ERA (7.33) is almost two runs worse than second-to-last place (Milwaukee, 5.88). The only other option is possibly Esmerling Vazquez, who has the best strikeout rate in the pen (9.53 K/9) but has a correspondingly high walk rate (4.76 BB/9) and a mediocre-to-poor groundball rate (37.3%). At least he doesn’t have Juan Gutierrez problems with the fly ball (27.5%). Last but not least is newcomer Sam Demel, fresh off his trade from Oakland – but let Joe Pawlikowski and David Golebiewski run you through the Arizona ramifications for the big trade today. It seems Demel has some hurdles to clear first, like actually pitching well in the major leagues. In the meantime, there’s Nick Pieocoro, the Arizona Republic beat writer, saying that AJ Hinch announced that Heilman gets the save chances for now, and my more lengthy run-down over at Bloomberg Sports.

James McDonald, Los Angeles (0% owned)
This is pure speculation that is most useful to those in the deepest of leagues. But let me lay out the reasons McDonald might be up soon. First, Chad Billingsley went on the 15-day DL today with a groin strain. Second, the replacement for the injured Vincente Padilla, Ronald Belisario, has started two games since 2007. Third, Vincente Padilla himself just got rocked in his first rehab start and may miss another start to extended rehab. Fourth, McDonald is on the 40-man roster and is currently starting. Sure, he has a 5.05 ERA and 1.51 WHIP right now, but he’s playing in a tough league and and still has 47 strikeout in 46.1 innings so far this year. The only other pitcher at AAA that’s showing anything is Seth Etherton, who is not on the 40-man roster. Etherton is a name to remember, though, because he does have a non-adjusted 3.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts in 36 innings. I don’t see the team wanting to drop an actual prospect from the 40-man to make room for the 33-year-old journeyman Etherton (6.18 major league career FIP). And for those that think that McDonald has no upside, there are two simple numbers that say he should be given another shot: he owns a 9.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 career in the minor leagues. THIS might finally be the year, when they turn to him with no other options and he wasn’t even pitching well in the minors. Stranger things have happened.

While the Chicago Cubs have made some curious decisions this offseason, the club still enters spring training as the overwhelming favorites in the National League Central. Fresh off of a 97-win season backed up by their runs scored/allowed total (+184 runs), the Cubs are projected to claim victory 96 times in 2009, per Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system.

While spots one through four will in Chicago’s rotation be filled by Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden, several arms will duel for the fifth slot this spring. Sean Marshall, Aaron Heilman, Jeff Samardzija and Chad Gaudin will all likely receive some degree of consideration for the job. First, let’s profile Marshall and Heilman.

Marshall, 26, is said to be the favorite to round out the rotation. The lanky lefty was recently tabbed by Cubs skipper Lou Pinella as the 5th man heading into camp. Selected out of Virginia Commonwealth in the 6th round of the 2003 amateu draft, Marshall comes at hitters with about as eclectic a mix of pitches as you’re going to find. Marshall supplements a tame 87-88 MPH fastball with a slow low-70’s curve, a mid-80’s cutter/slider and a changeup.

The 6-7, 220 pounder has tossed 294.1 career innings in the majors, posting a 4.97 FIP, 6.18 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9. Marshall is coming off of his most positive experience in the big leagues, as he struck out nearly eight batters per nine, walked about 3.2 and compiled a 4.39 FIP in 65.1 innings in 2008. Interestingly, Marshall has changed his pitching approach considerably since his first trial with the Cubs in 2006. Back then, he used his fastball about 52% of the time while also pulling out his changeup about 21%. In ’08, he used his heater just 38% of the time, with a changeup utilized just five percent. Marshall has filled the gap with more cutters and curves. There’s little upside here, but the five-pitch southpaw could enjoy a lengthy career as a swingman/innings-eater type.

Heilman, the erstwhile Mets reliever who spent a few days as Mariners property this offseason, has gone on the record as saying that he would like to start. However, his qualifications for such a role are not immediately apparent. From 2005-2007, the Notre Dame product had a good deal of success in Queens, though his FIP did rise each season (2.97 in ’05, 3.28 in ’06, 3.86 in ’07). As a fastball/changeup reliever, Heilman was an asset. In 2008, however, Heilman began messing around with a slider, perhaps in an attempt to show that he had the three-pitch mix to go out there every fifth day.

While it’s hard to say for sure whether Heilman’s experimentation led to his struggles, his performance did head south. He struck out nearly nine-and-a half batters per nine innings, but Heilman’s walk rate soared (5.45 BB/9), he gave up a few more flyballs (his GB% fell about five percent to 40.8%) and he surrendered 1.18 HR/9. The end result was a mild 4.91 FIP. The Cubs essentially swapped both Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno to acquire Heilman’s services. That’s quite the price to pay for a good, not great reliever or a kinda-sorta-rotation candidate.