Archive for 2015

2015 Visualized: Catcher

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For the next few weeks, the RotoGraphs staff will devote an entire week to each defensive position, including spotlights on particular players as well as trends throughout the 2015 season. This week, we’re highlighting first basemen.

I don’t claim to be a Tableau (or data visualization) whiz by any means, but I thought it would be cool to visually represent the first base landscape in 2015 — with some analysis sprinkled in.

Steamer and ZiPS represent premier player projection systems; FanGraphs’ Depth Charts combines the two, and the writing staff allocate playing time accordingly. The playing time part is less important relative to the combined projections, as aggregated projections tend to perform better than standalones.

Previously, I compared actual WAR (wins above replacement) to projected WAR. This is not entirely helpful in a fantasy context, however, given WAR is a catch-all component metric for offense and defense. Defense doesn’t do us a whole lot of good for fantasy purposes.

Thus, I figured out a way to compare projected wOBA (weighted on-base average) from the preseason to actual wOBA (1) by team and (2) by player within team. Unlike WAR, wOBA is a rate metric, so it does not need to be scaled according to playing time.

First: the difference between a team’s wOBA generated by first basemen and their projected wOBA. Blue represents the highest expected wOBA; yellow represents lowest expected wOBA. The size of the bar above (below) the line represents actual wOBA above (below) expectations.

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One time, I made some bold predictions about the 2015 season. They were, by and large, pretty terrible, as most bold predictions usually go. However, not all of them were complete losses, and it seems appropriate anyway to review them at the season’s midway point. In addition to brief analyses for each player where applicable, I also provided completely arbitrary percentages of probabilities that my remaining predictions will hit.

1. Giancarlo Stanton finishes outside the top 10… outfielders.

Dude swings so hard, he fractures his wrist. It’s incredible, and aside from getting hit in the face by a Mike Fiers fastball last year, Stanton has suffered non-freak injuries in all of his professional seasons that have caused him to miss significant time — hence, the basis of this prediction. He ranks third of all outfielders, according to the ESPN Player Rater, and six weeks of missed time gives me a solid chance here. A wrist injury is by no means a death knell for a hitter’s power, but there’s reason to believe, aside from reasons related to regression, he doesn’t match his production through the season’s first three months — as in he hits closer to 10 or 12 home runs rest-of-season rather than 15 to 20.

Probability: Read the rest of this entry »

I participated in two drafts this past weekend. Both were 10-team auctions, one a season-long rotisserie keeper league (“LOWV,” henceforth), the other a head-to-head points redraft league (“Sandlot”). They are just home leagues, not renowned leagues such as Tout Wars or LABR or anything like that, but hey! Breaking down any draft can make for good insight, and if it helps just one person clarify his or her strategy, perhaps it did some good.

“So, Alex, how did you in your drafts?” Great, thanks for asking! I love both my teams. Love them. Except I made the same mistake in each draft: I left some money on the table. Like, $20 in one instance. It became a running gag: “Don’t question Alex — it’s all part of his master plan!” But here’s the catch: I arguably have the best team, per the projections, even after managing my budget so poorly.

So where did my strategy go wrong? Honestly, I’m not sure it did. (Or maybe I’m just trying to make myself feel better.)
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