Surprising Southpaws

Every season there are numerous starting pitchers who surprise, rewarding those owners who spent heavily on hitting during the draft, with a plan of rostering cheaper breakout/sleeper type pitchers and improving their staff during the season. Though these three surprises haven’t earned a ton of mixed league value, they weren’t really even forecasted to return positive value in even mono leagues. Let’s discuss the trio, who all happen to be left-handed.

A one-time Cardinals prospect, Marco Gonzales had fallen off the radar after missing the entire 2016 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Then he was traded to the Mariners, hurting his prospects even further as he now found himself in the American League. But then he enjoyed an excellent spring training on the surface with a 2.08 ERA (though that was not supported by his strikeout and walk rates) and earned him some sleeper love. So far, he’s made those who took the plunge pretty happy…that is if he wasn’t dropped after his first four starts.

Though he isn’t inducing whiffs at an above average clip, or generating strikeouts, he has displayed elite control, walking fewer than 5% of the batters he has faced. Since his strikeout rate is still acceptable at just below the league average, it has been enough to push his SIERA below 4.00. Unfortunately, I’m not all that optimistic about his future. I dislike betting on a guy who gets by with superb control as it’s difficult so maintain such a sparkling walk rate. Next, the highest SwStk% any of his pitches has generated has been just 11.6%. Sure, he’s got another just above 11% and his curve is almost at double digits, suggesting none of his pitches are bad per se, but nothing stands out. Without any ground ball tendency and over 200 innings struggling with line drives, I fear that his mediocre stuff is going to be exposed and his control won’t be enough to save him.

You might quibble with my inclusion of Andrew Suarez as a surprise (with the assumption that these are good surprises!), as his ERA stands at an ugly 4.68. But the 3.90 SIERA suggests that he has actually pitched much better, but has just suffered from either poor fortune or a string of bad breaks. His skill set actually looks awfully similar to Gonzales’, with slightly worse strikeout and walk rates, but a slightly higher ground ball rate. The biggest difference is that Suarez pitches in the National League and also calls one of the most friendly parks for pitchers home.

But man, if you think I was pessimistic about Gonzales, I might be even more so about Suarez. He sports a tiny 7% SwStk%, so he’s truly fooling no one. It’s a wonder he has managed a strikeout rate just above 20% with such a weak SwStk%. Suarez’s best whiff pitch has been better than Gonzales’, as his slider stands with a 13.2% SwStk%. It’s below average for the pitch, but it’s better than anything Gonzales could muster. Unfortunately, every other pitch he throws is poor and has resulted in SwStk% worse than Gonzales. This is a pitcher who I believe will see his SIERA rise to meet his ERA, rather than see his luck turn and his ERA drop toward his SIERA.

Remember Derek Holland?! He’s only posted a sub-4.00 ERA over a full season twice, the last time coming back in 2013. A career American League pitcher that always called a severe hitter’s park home, finding himself in the National League, and a great pitcher’s park to boot, was the best situation he could ask for. He has ridden a career best SwStk% to a strikeout rate surge, while his control has returned to normal after a brutal 2017.

The oft-injured veteran might finally be healthy again. However, you would never know it from his velocity, which is either just above his career low set last year, or below it and setting a new low, depending on which pitch section you believe. If he was healthy after years of dealing with injury, I would expect his velocity to bounce back, at least partly. The key here is that he’s gotten back to throwing his slider at a high teens clip after he reduced his reliance on the pitch over the previous two seasons. It has always been his best whiff pitch, so perhaps this is the confirmation of health we were looking for. Maybe he’s finally comfortable throwing the pitch again given the stress associated with it. Of these three pitchers, I’m most optimistic about Holland given the superior SwStk% and strikeout rate marks.