Surprise! You Believed Their 2018 BABIPs, But Shouldn’t Have

Last week, I used my xBABIP equation to identify and discuss eight hitters potentially due for a BABIP surge and six at risk of dramatic decline. Today I’ll check in on hitters that at first glance, wouldn’t appear to be far off from their xBABIP marks, while the surgers and decliners list were quite a bit more obvious. If you posted a .230 BABIP in 2017, you’re probably going to find yourself on a potential surger list, while a .380 BABIP is likely going to get you onto the decliner list.

For this exercise, I chose seven hitters with an actual BABIP not too far from the .296 league average.

The potential 2019 BABIP surgers are highlighted in yellow.

How on Earth did Ian Desmond post his first sub-.300 BABIP while playing half his games at Coors Field, of all parks?! Desmond has become a super weird hitter upon his arrival in Colorado, hitting few line drives and tons of grounders. You have to assume a batted ball profile better suited to take advantage of his home digs this year. Even if not, his xBABIP actually sat at its highest mark going back to 2012, the first season on my spreadsheet. He remains a 20/20 threat and now with significant BABIP upside, and therefore batting average upside, he’s got a good chance to earn his owners a profit.

Like Desmond above, Ketel Marte somehow managed a career worst BABIP while posting a career best xBABIP. The biggest driver of his superior xBABIP is that spike in Hard%, the first time it jumped over the 30% hump. He was once a speed play, but has oddly stopped running, while pushing his HR/FB rate into double digits. If he starts running again, you got yourself a nice little power/speed mix that could contribute positively to your batting average.

Yeah, A.J. Pollock is always injured and he’s amazingly only exceeded 482 plate appearances once in his career. He had also posted BABIP marks above .300 for three straight seasons, before posting sub-.300 marks over the last two. But xBABIP suggests his BABIP haven’t gone anywhere and have remained as strong as ever. This year, it was driven by a career best Hard%. While that’s unlikely to be repeated, this is still a true talent .300 BABIP guy.

Why does everyone hate Kevin Pillar? How the heck did I get him at 276 overall in TGFBI when he has stolen at least 14 bases in each of his four full seasons, while hitting double digit homers in three of those seasons?! Sure, he’s boring as heck, but he delivers a respectable power/speed mix that earns fantasy value. I sound like a broken record, but Pillar’s xBABIP actually hit a career high thanks to a surge in line drive rate and Hard%, both to career highs. Unfortunately, neither are likely to be repeated. Still, he’s clearly undervalued…again.

Odubel Herrera has pulled a Ketel Marte himself, but to a more extreme degree. Herrera has gone from eight homers to 22 and from a peak of 25 steals to just five. He batted just .255 — easily a career low — which took a bite out of his value, as his BABIP slipped below .300 for the first time from some super inflated marks. xBABIP never bought those high BABIP marks to begin with, so it’s possible his luck finally ran out. However, he has still outperformed his xBABIP for four straight seasons, and by a significant margin, so I would probably argue that he’s doing something not captured by the equation. Rather than figure serious regression here, I would expect some sort of a rebound, but certainly not back up to his pre-2018 BABIP levels.

Eddie Rosario’s 2017 breakout was fueled by a reduction in strikeout rate, which he has held onto, and even improved upon further, in 2018. Like Herrera above, Rosario has outperformed his xBABIP in each of his four seasons, making me believe he’s doing something unique. However, he aware that this was the lowest xBABIP he has posted, so the risk is raised of some regression. That said, outside the possibility of a BABIP decline, I’m a fan, especially at the price I drafted him in TGFBI.

Daniel Palka was one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2018 season, displaying some serious power. And while his .308 BABIP looks reasonable, you may laugh that he actually posted an above league average mark, and yet still hit just .240. Sadly, that BABIP wasn’t real, as a lefty that grounds into the shift as often as he did, plus hits a low rate of liners, has no business exceeding the BABIP league average. I doubt he finishes the season as an every day player against right-handers.