Stream, Stream, Stream: #2xSP (9.7-9.13)

Of note this week is that five of the six starts are slated to come for pitchers at home, and considering the typical home/road boost — 3.73/4.18 splits for MLB starters this year — that should bode well for these selections as we come down the home stretch.

Here are the totals halfway through week 20 (with updates from previous listing):

31-47 record (1-0)
4.74 ERA (sadly, no change)
7.0 K/9 (same)
2.3 K/BB (same)
1.41 WHIP (-0.01)

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wRC+ in parentheses. Y! ownership numbers usually pulled courtesy of twitter pal @PandapPete21 (but not this week) whom you should give a follow:

RHP Matt Shoemaker – 23.3% ESPN – v. LAD (107), v. HOU (100)

Shoemaker absolutely has the toughest matchups of the three this week — he’s facing two of baseball’s eight offenses at or above 100 team wRC+ — but he’s also the best bet to put a good foot forward. He hasn’t been able to replicate last year’s insane success, but in two starts after his temporary banishment to the minors, he’s allowed just one earned run (0.63 ERA) with a .371 OPS against and 10-3 K/BB ratio. We’re talking about impossibly small sample sizes here and I get that, but I believe he’s trending in the right direction. Those trends are a bit more evident in the longer term as well; his last 100 innings or so since his ERA peaked at 6.61 have been quite good: 3.59 ERA, .686 OPS against and 84-26 K/BB ratio in 18 appearances (17 starts). If he’s available, I’d take a shot. The Dodgers are still pretty good on the road (101 wRC+) but the Astros are considerably worse (middle of the road at 91).

LHP Drew Smyly– 27.3% ESPN – @DET (105), v. BOS (98)

I kept trying to talk myself into recommending Justin Nicolino (v. MIL, v. WAS) but simply couldn’t do it based on his 3.1 K/9 mark and a Nationals offense that has been better of late. Smyly gets to face his old Detroit friends and is going up against Randy Wolf (6.11 ERA) in the first start, so I like his chances to come out on top even if it’s a bit of a slugfest. Smyly is also coming off easily his best start of the season last time out, as he stymied the Orioles for seven shutout innings, scattering four hits while tying a season high with 10 strikeouts. He’s now up over a strikeout per inning this season — limited sampling of course — with just eight walks. His home run rate is troubling — seven in 37.2 innings — but he’s allowed just one since his return from the disabled list. If you want someone a little safer, Tommy Milone (@KC, @CWS) might be the pick there.

RHP Aaron Nola – 41.3% ESPN- v. ATL (84), v. CHC (94)

Nola’s start against Atlanta will be No. 10 in his big league career, and things have been mostly good for the 22-year-old rookie. He’s got a 4.02 ERA, 44-14 K/BB ratio and has allowed a .236 batting average through 53.2 innings — just under six frames per start. The worst start of his big league career came last time out against the Mets — six earned in four innings — but I still like his chance to handle a Braves offense that is slumping badly. Entering play Saturday, the Braves were losers of 10 straight and just 2-18 over their last 20. That Cubs offense isn’t as infallible as one might think either, though they play about the same at home (96) as they do on the road (92).

Also considered: Nicolino and Milone.