Stream, Stream, Stream: #2xSP (6.29-7.5)

We’ve been banging this drum for weeks, but continued progress is the goal here. I’ve also added a week-to-week change meter on the numbers so you can get a feel of how things are progressing. Similarly, how else can I better justify a collective 4.78 ERA? Ha.

Here are the totals through half of week 11 (with week-to-week change listed):

15-30 record (+ 1-0)
4.78 ERA (-0.31)
6.2 K/9 (no change)
2.2 K/BB (-0.1)
1.43 WHIP (+ 0.02)

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses. Y! ownership numbers pulled courtesy of twitter pal @PandaPete21, whom you should give a follow:

RHP Nate Karns – 19.3% ESPN/20% Y! – v. CLE (.315), @NYY (.331)

Karns doesn’t really have easy matchups this week, but the pickings aren’t great across the board. I also considered Colby Lewis, Mike Pelfrey and Wandy Rodriguez before settling on these three. Karns has had a nice run with the Rays, with a 3.28 ERA and 8.2 K/9, though he oddly leads the league with 10 wild pitches. C.J. Wilson also has 10, and only one other pitcher — Sonny Gray with eight — has more than seven in the AL. Karns’ mix of strikeouts and grounders (45.4 percent) is solid, though his control teeters on the brink of being troublesome (3.6 BB/9), though he has done a fairly good job of not having any games where he comes completely unraveled in that respect. He has three four-walk games, but also importantly has yet to go an entire start without issuing a free pass. Karns’ last three starts have been really good, resulting in a 1.04 ERA and 17-5 K/BB ratio in 17.1 innings. Opponents have hit just .246/.300/.292 off him in that span, which includes team wins over the White Sox and Indians, and a tough 1-0 loss to Toronto. Shutting down the Jays offense for six innings is no small task, but he did just that last time out.

LHP Michael Montgomery – 14.7% ESPN/11% Y! – @SDP (.294), @OAK (.318)

His first five stars have been serendipitously good, and I’m hoping to ride the wave of a couple easier matchups this week before he inevitably falls back to earth. Montgomery has been dealing with the little-used slider (33.3 percent whiff rate but just 12 instances) and changeup (18 percent in 100 instances), and so far he’s proven hard to hit with good pitch peripherals across the board. Opposing hitters have hit just .208/.259/.277, which encouraged me to start him over Pelfrey, who has been roughed up a bit more in his most recent starts. Montgomery is also coming off a 10-strikeout complete game win over the Royals, so why not ride the wave?

RHP Kendall Graveman – 12.4% ESPN/11% Y! – v. COL (.327), v. SEA (.293)

The Rockies matchup is a mirage, as even though they’re fifth in MLB in team wOBA, they carry a huge home/road split. Big surprise, right? The Rockies have the No. 3 home wOBA (.355) and the No. 23 road wOBA (.293), with this matchup coming at O.co Coliseum. The Mariners have a bottom-four offense by team wOBA, and hit even worse on the road — though not by much. One should also give some credit to Graveman, who has been stellar since his return in late May. He’s made seven starts with the following numbers: 2.31 ERA, .680 OPS against and 34-11 K/BB ratio in 46.2 innings. That’s brought his ERA down from 8.27 to 3.86, and he looks to be the next product from the Oakland pitching factory.