Stream, Stream, Stream: #2xSP (5.4-5.10)
It was another bleak week, as my selections last time around got peppered pretty good their first time out. As a result, we’re back to where we started after week one. That’s OK, it’s a marathon, not a race, right? On the bright side, we finally are moving past the Minnesota Twins-level strikeout rates, though we’ve brought the K/BB down and the WHIP up with it. We’ll get there friends, I am confident.
Here are the totals through half of week three:
4-7 record
4.89 ERA
6.0 K/9
2.1 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses. Y! recs pulled courtesy of twitter pal @Adams_Steve, who is one of the great folks over at MLB Trade Rumors whom you should definitely follow:
RHP Travis Wood – 26.2% ESPN/23% Y! – @STL (.318), @MIL (.276)
The Milwaukee matchup is killer for Wood, as the Brewers have the No. 29 offense in terms of wOBA. Even with Carlos Gomez coming back, it’s an offense that is hitting .225/.276/.347 and is taking virtually no walks (5.5%). I’ll take my chances there. The Cardinals could be pretty tough on the front end, as they have a top-10 offense wOBA-wise — like always — and are doing so with a pretty balanced team triple-slash of .268/.335/.393. On his own, Wood has been really good, fanning just under 10 batters per nine innings with an improved walk rate and FIP numbers that generally back up his 3.04 ERA. The strand rate is a bit high and he’s fly ball heavy, so that could lead to him being somewhat blowup prone, but I think there’s enough intrigue to stream him here. Maybe even hold onto him if you see a little bit more this week.
RHP Jesse Hahn – 9.5% ESPN/41% Y! – @MIN (.288), @SEA (.301)
The Twins have hit better of late, but it’s still a pretty good matchup considering a good portion of the team’s thunder bats left handed. That’ll likely mean a lineup loaded with the likes of Eduardos Nunez and Escobar as well as Kurt Suzuki batting far higher than you’d ever imagine, and that could make for a really nice lineup for Hahn to attack. I hemmed and hawed about whether to go with Hahn or Chavez before landing on Hahn, but if you go with either I think you’ll have solid results. Chavez had filled in for Hahn after the latter developed a blister on his pitching hand, but with Kendall Graveman send down to Triple-A, it looks as though Chavez has a pretty solid hold on a rotation spot right now. Anyhow, Seattle’s hitting a bit better than the Twins, but I still think it’s a pair of pretty solid matchups for the righty.
RHP Trevor May – 0.2% ESPN/2% Y! – v. OAK (.319), @CLE (.304)
I might take a little grief over this one, but I think May has turned a corner as a starter. His first start looked bad statistically, but his defense betrayed him and he had trouble putting away hitters the third time through the order. That’s something that’ll plague just about any starter, and May is still under 70 big-league innings. But the one place I think May has made the most strides — and again, it is early — is that he’s walked just 1.3 batters per nine after walking 4.0-plus last year in the majors and during pretty much his entire minor league career.
The walk rate is something the Twins stress heavily at all levels — granted, May came up in the Phillies organization — but the best part in this early-season sample is that it hasn’t cost him anything on the whiffs front, as he’s fanned a solid 7.5 per nine. So while May’s 4.43 ERA is a bit unsightly, he’s got a 2.55 FIP and 3.56 WHIP as a result of a .358 BABIP — fly balls plus this Twins defense? ouch — and a little other bad luck here and there. From my vantage point, his changeup has been fantastic too, and the numbers flesh that out: 22.2% whiff rate. I got him for a buck in Ottoneu; this might be a guy you hold onto.
As a bonus pick, ownership numbers are really low on Marco Estrada, who is taking over for Daniel Norris in the Blue Jays rotation. The rates are pretty good, though he could be bombed by his HR affinity, but he might be worth a look. He’s starting on Tuesday.
In addition to Rotographs, Warne writes about the Minnesota Twins for The Athletic and is a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com
Trying to decide on two of Chavez, Harrang, Shoemaker, May, and Hahn in a weekly H2H points league. Any adivce?
Also, trying to decide whether to bench Carrasco in favor of Chavez or Familia since he only has 5 games limiting his save chances. That would allow me to do three of the 5 guys listed above.
Hmm. I think I’m really, really on board with May right now. I might go May and Hahn. I don’t think I’d bench Carrasco.