Stream, Stream, Stream: 2x SP 6.10-6.16
Let’s first start with results:
Week 1: 1-3, 30 IP, 3.00 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP (Kevin Slowey, Ubaldo Jimenez, Joe Saunders)
Week 2: 2-3, 25.1 IP, 5.69 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.74 WHIP (Joe Blanton, James McDonald, Eric Stults)
Week 3: 1-2, 32 IP, 3.66 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP (Wade Davis, Carlos Villanueva, Patrick Corbin)
Week 4: 2-1, 22 IP, 6.14 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 1.95 WHIP (Julio Teheran, Jason Hammel, Garrett Richards)
Week 5: 2-2, 30 IP, 3.60 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 1.23 WHIP (Scott Diamond, Nick Tepesch, Andrew Cashner)
Week 6: 2-3, 32.2 IP, 4.96 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP (Justin Grimm, Juan Nicasio, Hector Santiago)
Week 7: 1-0, 29 IP, 3.41 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 1.34 WHIP (Julio Teheran, Phil Hughes, Scott Kazmir)
Week 8: 1-0, 34.2 IP, 4.93 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 4.5 K/BB, 1.27 WHIP (Jhoulys Chacin, Kevin Slowey, Dan Straily)
Week 9*: 1-1, 20 IP, 3.15 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.4 K/BB, 1.15 WHIP (John Danks, Andrew Cashner, Chris Tillman)
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Total: 13-15 (.464), 255.2 IP, 4.26 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.37 WHIP
League Averages: .495 win percentage, 4.12 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP
This week, we’ve added what the league numbers (for starters only) are to see if I’m really providing above league average recommendations. So far, not really, though I think weeks two and four are the outliers here, which will hopefully be rectified as the sample size opens up.
Here are this week’s selections, with a tip of the cap again to Twitter pal @tlschwerz:
John Lackey – 42.7% Yahoo!/40% ESPN – @TB (.325 team wOBA), @BAL (.340)
I’m not sure if it’s fair to say yet or not, but it looks like the trimmed down Lackey is better than ever at this point. He’s fanning over a hitter and a half more than his career numbers per 9. The walks and groundballs are all trending nicely, and his BABIP is low so he’s doing a good job of hiding his higher-than-usual HR/FB rate. As a result, his 2.79-3.82-3.28 pitching slash means he’s been legitimately very good so far this season (0.9 WAR).
And not a moment too soon; the Red Sox had paid Lackey $49.2 million for 375 innings of 5.26 ERA, 1.50 WHIP baseball from 2010-’12 (including missing all of ’12). And though the numbers weren’t pretty, Lackey was worth +5.6 wins in that time frame, so it wasn’t a total loss. Still, not an ideal allocation of assets.
Lackey gets a pair of pretty good offenses this week, but none better than the one in his corner (.347 team wOBA).
Corey Kluber – 1.2% Yahoo!/5% ESPN – @TEX (.334), v. WAS (.287)
Kluber is fanning well over a guy an inning, getting decent groundball rates (42%), and has done so with a high BABIP (.341) and less-than-ideal strand rates (67.7%). Hence, a 4.56-3.39-2.85 pitching slash. The Rangers matchup isn’t great, but go get Kluber before he blows up. This Indians team is pretty dang good.
Tony Cingrani – 16.5% Yahoo!/32% ESPN – @CHC (.312), v. MIL (.311)
I’m not going to give you the breathless account of a kid who is fanning over 11 (!) per 9 with an ERA around 3.00, because he’s a kid with flaws. Namely, his nearly 2.0 HR/9, a BABIP under .250, and a strand rate over 90%. But he’s young, heralded, throws pretty hard (92.1 mph average heater), and he has two really nice matchups this week. He’s a keeper in the long term — and his FIPs aren’t that discrepant from his true ERA — but worth throwing back maybe after this week.
In addition to Rotographs, Warne writes about the Minnesota Twins for The Athletic and is a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com
If Gerrit Cole has two starts next week (@ home vs SF & LA), would you go with him right away?
I think he’d be in consideration, yes.