Stock Watch: 7/13

Stock Up

Garrett Jones, Pirates

Who? Mr. Jones is a 28 year-old lefty hitter who had a bitter cup of coffee with the Twins back in 2007 (.260 wOBA in 84 PA). The hulking 6-4, 230 pounder is one of many kinda-sorta-maybe corner outfielders getting a chance at playing time in Pittsburgh (Brandon Moss and Delwyn Young are also in the mix). Jones has responded by thwacking 5 home runs in his first 46 PA. While he could be a cheap source of power and has a good chance of keeping his name in the lineup, I would hesitate against getting too enthralled. Jones is a career .258/.312/.450 minor league hitter who has taken 5 tours of the AAA International League. His rest-of-season ZiPS projection (.257/.309/.455, 6.7 BB%) essentially makes Jones look like Pittsburgh’s version of Micah Hoffpauir.

Jonathan Sanchez, Giants

Sanchez was booted from San Fran’s rotation, only to be returned to the starting five in the aftermath of Randy Johnson ’s shoulder injury. I think Jonathan, uh, responded well. The gifted, aggravating 26 year-old tossed a no-no versus the Padres, punching out 11 in the process. It’s anyone’s guess as to how the Puerto Rican native pitches in his next outing, though. Equipped with low-90’s cheese and a plus slider (+1.84 runs/100 pitches), Sanchez has punched out 9.04 hitters per nine innings. However, his walk rate (5.26 BB/9) leaves owners pulling out their hair. Whether the 6-2, 190 pounder remains in Giants duds past the deadline remains to be seen, but he should continue taking regular turns in the rotation regardless.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants

Pablo is no stranger to the “Stock Up” section, but his scorching first-half deserves special mention. As a 22 year-old, Sandoval has posted a .406 wOBA, ripping the seams of the ball to the tune of a .333/.385/.578 line. While the 5-11, 245 pound corner infielder will never be called restrained at the plate, he has shown promising signs in terms of working the count. Sandoval’s walk rate has climbed from 2.7% in 2008 to 7.3% this year, with a drop in his percentage of swings outside of the strike zone (53.8% to 45.3%). As a result, Pablo’s first-pitch strike percentage has dipped from 70.8% to 59.4% (58% MLB average).

Sandoval has contributed 21.3 park-adjusted Batting Runs above average for the Giants. The rest of San Francisco’s usual starting lineup has posted a collective -18.5 Batting Runs. Let that sink in for a moment.

David Price, Rays

In 2009, Price has been a Three True Outcomes pitcher. While the abundance of whiffs (9.61 K/9) highlight the talent that made the Vanderbilt star the most celebrated pitching prospect in the minors, Price has also handed out free passes (6.34 BB/9) and souvenirs (1.43 HR/9) far too often. Perhaps Price has begun to turn the corner, as he outdueled Doc Halladay on July 9th (6 IP, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K). The 23 year-old southpaw will likely toss the occasional stinker as he gains his big league footing, but there’s still every reason to think he’ll be an integral part of Tampa’s rotation. If Price can get ahead of hitters more frequently (his first-pitch strike percentage is just 53.9%), he should be able to garner more swings on pitches off the plate (his outside-swing percentage is only 18.6%, compared to the 25% MLB avg).

Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals

Formerly property of Oakland, Texas, Cleveland and Detroit, Ludwick had saw career stagnate as he dealt with the effects of a serious hip injury. The righty-hitting, lefty-chucking outfielder then revived his baseball ambitions in St. Louis, posting a .350 wOBA in 2007 and a monstrous .406 mark in 2008. While last year was almost assuredly a peak season, the 31 year-old Ludwick (Happy Birthday, Ryan!) has rebounded from some BABIP-induced valleys (.716 OPS, .156 BABIP in May, .622 OPS, .219 BABIP in June) to crush the ball for a 1.243 OPS in July. His production for the season (.357 wOBA, .264/.333/.496) is a good match for his ’07 work. ZiPS sees Ludwick performing slightly better from here on out (.368 wOBA, .273/.345/.510).

Stock Down

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers

Salty has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many this season. The 24 year-old, switch-hitting backstop was the best-known prospect in the July 2007, gift-that-keeps-on-giving Mark Teixeira swap. However, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus are running circles around Saltalamacchia these days.

Salty didn’t show much pop in his trial with Texas last year (.319 wOBA, .244/.352/.365) and he whiffed like Chris Davis lite (37.4 K%), but he did work the count well (13.5 BB%). This year, he has kept the punch outs (36.3 K%) but dropped the patient approach (6.8 BB%). His O-Swing% has soared from 26.2% to 34.6%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 53% to 64%. The result? A putrid .288 wOBA. There’s still time for Salty, but he’s going to have to halt the Eric Munson impersonation.

Jason Giambi, Athletics

As Dave Cameron pointed out last month, the baseball community has an Adam Everett-like batting average when it comes to identifying when an older player is “done.” There’s usually a rush to attribute poor performance in baseball’s elder statesmen to a loss in skill, and sometimes that’s correct. But other times, Jim Edmonds or Gary Sheffield gets released and then starts partying like it’s 1999.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that I’m not quite ready to write Giambi’s hardball eulogy; many of you will remember that he looked washed up a half-decade ago and then resumed raking. But the 38 year-old looks cooked. His performance against fastballs has cratered (-0.50 runs/100 pitches, compared to +1.01 in 2008), and things are only getting worse as the months roll by:

Giambi’s Runs/100 pitches against fastballs, by month

April: +0.24
May: -0.17
June: -0.56
July: -3.97

If one wishes to be optimistic, his .217 BABIP is nearly 40 points lower than 2008’s mark. Giambi could bounce back, but I wouldn’t bet on it. ZiPS projects a .213/.347/.404 line the rest of the way. That’s just not very useful at a position where the average player boasts a .276/.363/.485 triple-slash.

Ervin Santana, Angels

(I don’t have anything against the AL West-I swear!)

On the heels of a dominant 2008 season in which he compiled a 3.30 FIP, Santana has gotten roped for a 5.72 FIP in 40.1 innings. Pitching with a damaged elbow ligament, Ervin just isn’t nearly the same hurler who used a wicked mid-90’s fastball and biting slider to punch out 8.79 batters per nine innings in 2008. Santana’s velocity is down over 3 ticks this year (94.4 MPH to 91 MPH), with a 2-3 MPH dip on the slider (83.9 MPH to 81.4).

Santana’s heater has been the worst among any starter chucking at least 40 frames (a stunning -4.1 runs/100 pitches, after a +0.11 mark in ’08). Hitters are making more contact (84.2% contact rate, up from 77.1% in ’08) and swinging at fewer outside pitches (24.7% in ’09, 31.7% in ’08). Santana looks like damaged goods.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

Millwood’s regression shouldn’t come as a complete surprise, as his ERA was far surpassing his peripherals. There’s still a sizable gap between his ERA (3.46) and FIP (4.73), but it has lessened after Millwood surrendered 17 earned runs over his past 17.1 innings. Texas’ slick leather (8th in team UZR) helps a pitch-to-contact hurler like Millwood, but he’s more serviceable mid-rotation starter than ace.

Dioner Navarro, Rays

The 25 year-old Navarro performed admirably for the Rays in 2008 (.330 wOBA), but the former Yankee and Dodger has plummeted to a .256 mark this season. He’s not getting many bounces (.245 BABIP), but Navarro’s plate discipline is non-existent (2.8 BB% in 2009, 7.4% in ’08). His outside-swing% is up from 23.2% to 27.2%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 52.8% to 57.5%. Navarro was worth 2.7 Wins Above Replacement in 2008, but he has been sub-replacement level in ’09 (-0.1 WAR).