Steamer and I: Yasiel Puig – A Review

Let’s continue with the outfielder Steamer and I reviews by checking in on an amusing player — Yasiel Puig. I was significantly more bearish on Puig than Steamer was, and while we know now that Puig has continued his offensive slide, let’s dive into exactly what we expected versus how he actually performed.

For the projection comparison, all 2015 and Steamer counting stats have been extrapolated to the same number of plate appearances I forecasted. I also decided to add a line for his 2016 counting stats extrapolated over the plate appearance projection, given that he missed our playing time forecasts by such a significant degree.

Obviously, we were all way off on the playing time estimates. For the second straight season, Puig missed time due to left hamstring issues. Since these have been recurring, it would be silly to project a fully healthy season at this point. He has to prove he’s capable first now.

Steamer was a bit more optimistic about Puig’s power this year, and while I proved the better forecaster in that regard, we were still quite wrong. Puig missed our projections in doubles, triples, and home runs. But he didn’t actually disappoint from a HR/FB rate perspective, as it sat in the same range he had posted in the previous two years. The problem was simply that of expectations of growth, which simply didn’t manifest. After that explosive debut in 2013 and with clear top notch physical tools, we’ve been expecting a power spike, closer to what he displayed when he first came up. That just hasn’t happened, so far suggesting that was a complete fluke.

His plate discipline also disappeared. Once an above average walker, his walk rate dipped to a career low, dropping nearly two percentage points below his 2015 mark. However, a quick glance at his Plate Discipline metrics fails to yield any real explanation for the decline in walk rate. His Swing% was actually down, while he made a similar rate of contact. This looks pretty fluky to me, so ignoring everything else that could factor into his 2017 walk rate projection, I’d bet on a rebound.

I’m not sure why Steamer projected a career best strikeout rate. My forecast was right around his career average, which actually proved too high, as he finished right in the middle of mine and Steamer’s projection. He cut his SwStk% ever so slightly, but he also swung less often. Usually, that combination would result in a similar strikeout rate, or perhaps slightly higher, given that the SwStk%, while improved, is still poor. But that wasn’t actually the case. It’s a good thing he swings so often, otherwise his strikeout rate would be in the mid-20% range given his penchant for whiffing.

In his first two seasons, Puig posted highly inflated BABIP marks. If you checked back on the original Steamer and I article linked to in the intro, I included a table of his xBABIP marks. Those first two seasons seemed like a clear fluke and well above his actual BABIP talent. But since they did happen, I still had to project an above average mark for 2016, but slightly below what Steamer expected. Sadly, Puig continued to struggle to hit line drives, while also popping up more than ever before. In fact, he posted the second highest IFFB% among batters with at least 350 plate appearances. He was actually quite fortunate to even post a .306 BABIP given all those easy outs, as his xBABIP was just .285.

So although calling a league average wOBA a massive disappointment would be silly, it still feels like his season could be characterized as such. That’s how long that scorching 2013 debut has remained in our hearts. There are so many issues here and many metrics trending in the wrong direction. However, let’s remember — he’s still going to be just 26 years old next year, he still does have power somewhere in that bat (exactly how much is anyone’s guess, at this point), has been willing to take a walk, and possesses a touch of speed. The upside remains tantalizing and from a fantasy standpoint, he someone you kind of feel obligated to always blindly take a shot on. Now that he’ll likely come cheaper than ever before, the reward might finally outweigh the risk enough to roster on draft day..