Starvin’ for Ervin?

Admit it, my post titles are cleverly brilliant, every time. A couple of weeks ago in my look at overvalued AL starters based on the average draft position values at Mock Draft Central, I realized that Ervin Santana has gotten little fanfare for his 2011 performance. He posted a career best 3.38 ERA for a solid 84 ERA- and struck out 178 batters. Should you be starvin’ for Ervin in your 2012 drafts?

After breaking out in 2008, Santana dealt with elbow issues that limited his 2009 season to just 139.2 innings and hampered his performance. He then recovered in 2010, before enjoying his best ERA this past season. 2008’s breakout was accomplished in several ways. First, he suddenly displayed pinpoint control, finishing second among all qualified starters in F-Strike%. Although his control has remained pretty good since, he has never come near that F-Strike% again.

Next, his K% jumped above 19.0% for the first time, which amazingly remains the only time it has been above that plateau throughout his career. What caused the surge in strikeout ability that disappeared just as quickly as it came? Easy, a jump of two miles per hour on his fastball from 2007, which never materialized again. Last season’s average fastball velocity of 92.8 miles per hour has been his highest since. The velocity spike also led to his only SwStk% over 9.0% in his career.

The increase in velocity is still a mystery. It is unusual to see a pitcher experience such a gain one year and to lose it completely the following year, never to reach near that level again. This is precisely why it is unlikely he will ever post another legit (as in, without the benefit of good fortune) ERA below 3.50.

As discussed in the previously linked to overvalued article, Santana was lucky last year. His SIERA was 0.57 points higher than his ERA, thanks to a .272 BABIP (versus .290 career mark, which includes that .272) and a career best 76.6% LOB%, no doubt itself boosted by the low BABIP. He is almost been exactly the same pitcher, peripheral-wise, in the last three seasons, with one exception. Suddenly in 2011 he induced more ground balls than fly balls, something he had never done before. He essentially flipped the two percentages, which helped push his SIERA below 4.00 for only the second time.

Interestingly, his pitch mix was identical to 2010. So maybe he was throwing the ball lower in the strike zone in 2011? Let’s see. Below is his 2010 pitch location graph, followed by his 2011.

Doesn’t seem like he threw the ball more frequently in the lower part of the zone to explain the increase in ground balls. So the odds are it was a one year fluke and he reverts right back to the fly ball pitcher he always was.

Since his SwStk% has been stagnant for three seasons and velocity likely won’t suddenly break 93.0 miles per hours, we will probably see Santana’s ERA rise right back to where it sat in 2010. That’s okay production in AL-Only leagues, but he will be overvalued and is certainly not someone to target or bid much on in shallower mixed leagues.