Starting Pitchers Who Could Be Limited

Following a 2020 season in which only 40 starting pitchers reached at least 60 IP, the general worries that starters would be limited this year, have yet to be actualized. Granted, they still have two months to do so but my concerns have at least been tamped down on veterans with track records of high usage. However, pitchers with previously middling maxs are still worrying, particularly as more teams drop out of contention, and young starters still carry the same concerns as they do in the second half of any season.

However, whether looking at veterans or rookies, fantasy managers must try to set expectations for their pitching staff as we head into the fantasy dog days. Even if trusting what management says tends to be an exercise in futility. But you need to at least try to have a handle on who you can depend on the rest of the way, if only to curse their names when they do the opposite.

One if by shutdown, two if by bullpen…The limits are coming! The limits are coming!

2021 Starting Pitcher Usage

The following chart includes IP in 2021, as well as their max total innings reached between 2017-2021. This is mostly an arbitrary cutoff, looking to capture a more recent window of usage. Both totals include all professional innings (MLB, MiLB, KBO, etc) but do not include college.

Also included are hypothetical IP totals if making 10 or 11 more starts in 2021, running out the totals using the players 2021 IP/GS average (ie. If you’ve averaged 6.1 IP/GS, 10 more starts would add 61 IP, etc). For comparison, also included are the number of innings over the player’s previous max IP these hypothetical totals would represent, as well as the percentage change.

Ordered by their value according to our auction calculator, here are the 22 players that, given at least 10 more starts, would pace out to a minimum of 20% more IP than their previous max:

 

Julio Urías, LAD, SP 14

Urías is the most obvious top pitcher that’s a candidate to have his usage throttled in some fashion, currently sitting at 129.2 IP after never having pitched more than 82 IP (2019) and finishing 2020 with just 55 IP.

The Dodgers haven’t yet shown any real signs of slowing him down yet and their rotation is currently in a (mostly) IL-induced shambles. Urías, Buehler, Scherzer, and Price are currently the healthy options, while Kershaw, Gonsolin, and the newly acquired Danny Duffy remain on the IL.

But even if the Dodgers “need” him down the stretch (currently down 3.5 games to the Giants in the NL West) how much are they really willing to push Uríaspast his previous max of 81.2 IP, considering he’ll also be needed in the playoffs? If you set the over/under at 180 IP, I’m cueing the limbo.

The problem with Urías from a fantasy perspective is where he’s gotten his value from so far, with 13 wins (t-1st) and 139 strikeouts (t-12th) carrying a bulk of the freight:

 

While not much of his value is tied up in them, the ratios look steady, with Urías’s 3.40 ERA backed by a 3.41 FIP, 3.52 xFIP, and 3.52 ERA. While fewer innings will ultimately drag their value down more, the loss from strikeouts and wins will drag it much further, both in the cumulative value lost, as well as how much Urias, specifically, relies on them for his overall value.

Assuming a vacuum (where his 26.7% K% and 4.0 average batters faced per inning remain the same), it’s easy to estimate how many strikeouts fewer innings will cost Urias for the rest-of-season. In an unlikely world where Urías stays on his current pace, making 11 more starts and finishing with 194 IP, he’d finish with 208 K, while 10 starts and 188 IP would get him to 202 K. 180 IP gets 193 K and 170 IP gets 182 K. And so on. Those gaps might seem small now but 20 K could make a world of difference for teams battling in the last weeks of September.

Moving on from strikeouts, Urías’s 13 wins are the real breadwinner in his fantasy house, tying him with Kyle Hendricks for the major league lead, and giving him two more than Walker Buehler and Chris Bassitt in third. But the wins are providing a disproportionate amount of his total value, making Urias that much more sensitive to any changes.

His opportunities will obviously decrease if he starts getting occasionally skipped in the rotation. But the real tragedy for fantasy purposes will be if Dodgers, wanting to keep him on a regular schedule, opt to limit his innings by simply pulling him after 3-4 innings and piggyback with one of the extra starters they’ll presumably have sitting in the bullpen.

If this makes you want to try and move Uríasbefore the impeding fantasy trade deadlines, I’d call you wise. However, it’s not like him facing innings restrictions is a big secret. So, while finding trade partners for such an excellent pitcher shouldn’t be difficult, getting value commensurate with what he’s done so far, could be.

But getting that exact level of value isn’t necessarily what’s important IF your goal is simply to get as much as you can for what see as a declining asset. Because that’s what I see him as after baking in everything that would come with a  170-175 IP outcome. And one that could decline rapidly if the Dodgers end up opting for the piggyback road.

I love Urías and believe he will continue to be excellent this year and in the future. But this isn’t about talent and real-life value, it’s about trying to make good bets on what their fantasy value will be for the rest of the year. And Urías is a bad bet. Or, at least, he’s a bad bet relative to the level of players I’d be trying to get in a trade.

For example, I think Chris Bassitt is a better (or at least, as good) of a bet than Uríasin terms of ROS total value returned. And Bassitt is a good value comp to Urías too, as he’s the SP 14 and their values by category are similar (more ERA value from Bassitt, two more wins from Urias). But while Bassitt has finally started to get some deserved respect, I’m not sure many fantasy players would consider him a near-equal to Urias.

Playing on Bassitt’s lesser name cache and fantasy managers general love of giving up two players to get the one “best” player in the deal, I think you could find a lot of players interested in acquiring Urías for Bassitt + piece. Or downgrading Bassitt to someone like Manaea/Morton/etc., in order to upgrade that second piece.

But before we go trading for Bassitt, we should probably address that he’ll finish with about 30% more innings than his career max if he were to make 10 more starts.

Chris Bassitt, OAK, SP 16

Currently sitting at 137 IP, Bassitt is pacing for 199 IP if he were to make 10 more starts at his average IP/GS rate, and for 206 IP if you give him 11 more starts. Bassitt is a different kettle of fish than Urias, however, with Oakland showing no signs of reigning the horse in.

His 4.15 ERA for his five starts in July is up from  3.04 ERA in his first 17 but what hasn’t changed is how deep he goes into games, finishing seven innings in three of his past four starts. In 2021, Bassitt has now gone at least 7 IP in 10 of his 22 starts, only failing to reach 5 innings twice.

The separating factor in comparison to Urias, though, is that Bassitt reached a total of 155 IP in 2019, while Urias had barely crossed 80 IP prior to this season. So, Bassitt might be pacing to crush his previous max, it’s not so drastic as to make me worry the brakes will get thrown on. At least, not any more than I’m worried about anyone else.

Besides his innings history, Oakland’s current situation in both the standings and their rotation make it seem unlikely they’d be able to pull Bassitt back, even if they wanted to. The A’s are currently 5.5 games behind Houston in the AL West and have a precarious hold on the second Wild Card slot, with the Yankees, Mariners, and Blue Jays all nipping at their heels.

While rotation-mates Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea shouldn’t face any restrictions, the rest of the line has been manned by Cole Irvin (reached 161 IP in the minors with a max of 41 IP in the majors prior to this season) and James Kaprielian (currently on the IL with a minor shoulder issue, missed all of 2017-18 with injuries, had a max of 68 IP prior to this season). Kaprielian’s spot is being held by rookie Daulton Jefferies, who has a previous max of 79 IP and is currently sitting at a total of 64 IP in 2021.

Oakland is already playing a dangerous game by relying on that youth to help carry them to and through the playoffs. But if they also try to limit their ace’s usage, then that game will approach Ice T levels of danger.

Speaking of rookies, let’s take a peek at where some other youngsters stand, whether they still have their eligibility, or not. The pitchers where the question isn’t if, only when.

Luis Garcia, HOU, SP 37

Now at 100.2 IP, Garcia is quickly approaching his previous high of 108.2 IP in 2019. The rookie is coming off of the two worst starts of his first full season, allowing 5 ER in 4.2 IP in each of his starts against the Giants and Mariners. Garcia has a 5.55 ERA over his last five starts but a 3.33 FIP speaks much better of that stretch.

However, while Garcia has had a terrific (and surprising) 2021, time might be running out on his stint as a regular member of the rotation. Whether Houston switches him to the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever, à la Cristian Javier, or use him as a stretched-out opener before turning things over to their increasingly deep bullpen, I think we may have seen the end of Garcia’s fantasy usefulness in 2021.

Casey Mize, DET, SP 65

After an excellent start against Baltimore, allowing one unearned run over seven innings, Mize took a hit facing the Red Sox on Thursday night, allowing four runs on three home runs over five innings. He currently sits at 116 IP for the season, now passing his previous max of 109.1 IP in 2019.

Detroit may have let him go against the Orioles but in his previous four starts in July, Mize failed to complete five innings and manager A.J. Hinch has already acknowledged that the plan to limit his usage has begun.

But as they proved in his start against Baltimore, this might not be a hard cap when Mize is cruising. While the strikeouts haven’t been consistent and counting on Tigers pitchers picking up wins isn’t generally the best option (although Detroit has won five of their last seven games and are 12-6 since the All-Star break), he still pitches in baseball’s worst division (and one that just had some of its best hitters traded away). You’ll need to do some cherry-picking but I think Mize still has a little gas in his fantasy tank.

His teammate, on the other hand…

Tarik Skubal, DET, SP 103

It may pain me to speak derogatorily about one of my favorite young pitchers but Skubal’s recent downturn must be noticed. He’s at 105.1 IP in 2021, not yet besting his previous max of 122.2 IP over two minor league levels in 2019, but more concerning is the flame-throwing leftie’s performance over the last month. And the home run problem that has reared its ugly head again.

Over his five starts since the start of July, Skubal has a 5.86 ERA, allowing nine home runs (2.86 HR/9). And adding insult to injury, that sky-high ERA hasn’t even come with his normal high-K ways, posting just a 20.0% K% over 27.2 IP, after running a 27.8% K% in his previous 77.2 IP.

 

With Skubal’s next two starts coming against Boston and Baltimore (both of whom have a top-10 wOBA and bottom-10 K% vs LHP) it’s time to hit the big, ‘ol pause button on him and let him ride your pine until further notice.

 

Alek Manoah, TOR, SP 38

With a 2.47 ERA over 47.1 IP in his first nine starts, there are few negatives to find with what Manoah has done in his big-league debut. He’s really only had two bad games, allowing a total of 9 ER (and 7 HR) in starts against the Marlins (in the second start of his career) and Orioles (who play in a high school stadium).

In his other seven starts, Manoah has a 0.89 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over 40.2 IP, with a 28.5% K%, while allowing zero home runs. So, like I was saying…Few negatives. But Manoah is at 65.1 IP in 2021, besting his previous professional max of 17 IP. However, to be fair, those 17 innings came on the heels of Manoah’s 108.1 IP in his final year at West Virginia in 2019.

The Blue Jays haven’t shown their hand yet in regards to handling Manoah’s innings and are currently running a six-man rotation following the addition of Jose Berrios at the trade deadline. Perhaps I’m being overly optimistic but I have a hard time seeing Toronto shift him to the bullpen while he’s pitching so well, even as he blows by his previous usage highs. And I suspect Toronto fans would not be pleased to see Manoah get moved out of the rotation while the Blue Jays are still two games out of the second Wild Card spot.

Tylor Megill, NYM, SP 65

Megill (Tylor, not Trevor) was roughed up in his last start against the Marlins, allowing four earned runs in 5 innings, while striking out four. He’d been excellent prior to that hiccup, posting a 2.04 ERA over 35.1 IP in his first seven starts, but Megill’s previous workloads are not inspiring for his future usage:

2018: 28 IP (plus 32.1 IP in his final year at Arizona)

2019: 71.2 IP

2020: Alternate site

2021: 54.2 IP

The Mets are currently in first place in the weak NL East but are closely trailed by Philadelphia and Atlanta. And considering what’s going on in the NL West, winning the division seems the be New York’s only path to the playoffs. However, if the Mets lose ground (and with Jacob deGrom (hopefully?) returning at some point), how long will Megill be pushed past his previous limits? I love the talent of the former 8th-round pick but his September usage might be bleak.

Ryan Weathers, SD, SP 82

Weathers is at 76.2 IP after a previous max of 96 IP in 2019 but has basically had his load managed all year, with 15 of his 19 appearances coming in at 4 IP, or fewer. In his current role, Weather’s fantasy usefulness is limited but more concerning than usage is how much he’s struggled over the last two months.

Over 34.1 IP in April and May, Weathers posted a 1.31 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, with a 20.6% K%. Since June 1, Weathers has a 6.12 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over 32.1 IP, with a 14.7% K%.

 

Running him out during his early season success was one thing but it is past time to head inside and get out of Weathers’ brewing storm.