Starting Pitcher Stuff+ Risers & Fallers – Apr 28 2025, A Review

In late April, after about a month of the season was in the books, I compared starting pitcher Stuff+ grades to their marks from the 2024 season, identifying the risers and fallers. Just like with any other metric, could pitcher go on a stuff hot streak or suffer through a slump? Or does such changes early on tend to stick? Let’s review the names to see how they finished the season in both Stuff+ and strikeout rate, which correlates strongly with the former.

First we’ll start with the early risers.

It’s a green party! Of the eight largest Stuff+ risers through a month of the season, every single one of them increased their Stuff+ and strikeout rate for the year. Now since a number of the marks are lower than after the first month, it means these pitchers couldn’t quite maintain the same higher level. But they managed to avoid enough regression the rest of the way to finish with higher marks than in 2024.

Hunter Greene was the king of gainers after a month of games, and while he couldn’t quite sustain such growth, he still finished with a significant jump in Stuff+. It helped him post a career best strikeout rate, though that mark was barely better than his 2022 and 2023 marks when he posted weaker Stuff+ grades. The increased Stuff+ was driven by a big jump in his four-seamer, which gained 1.9 MPH in velocity, whole his second most thrown pitch, his slider, also gained Stuff+ points, making the pitch even more elite than it already was. It’s anyone’s guess if he could repeat the velocity again next year, but even without it, he owns one of the highest Stuff+ marks among starting pitchers. A bigger question is whether he could sustain the improved walk rate, as fewer free passes will potentially cut down on multi-run home runs.

Tylor Megill’s season was cut short due to injury, which was unfortunate given the career best Stuff+ and strikeout rate. Interestingly, the jump was all from his four-seamer, but the pitch actually lost marginal velocity and he threw it more infrequently than ever before.

Though incredible the ERAs were identical in the first and second half, Hunter Brown’s season was still a tale of two halves. His Stuff+ at the time of the original post was at 114, but he finished at just 107, so he ended up barely above his 2024 mark. Furthermore, he posted strikeout rates of around 30% and higher for the first three months, but that fell into the low-to-mid 20% range over the final three months. Those second half marks were much more in line with his history. I’m curious how he’ll be valued next year because he still looks like essentially the same pitcher as in 2024. That’s plenty good and the skill set is solid, but no one should be paying a sub-3.00 ERA price next year.

Does anyone ever actually own Kyle Freeland on their fantasy team?! His increased Stuff+ barely moved his weak strikeout rate. Interestingly, he actually owns a higher strikeout rate at home, despite playing those games in one of the most strikeout suppressing parks in baseball.

Everyone rushed to add Cristopher Sánchez to their breakout/sleeper list when he came out throwing harder in spring training, and man, he sure made good on that promise. He barely lost any Stuff+ after that first month and his strikeout rate surged to a career high. When it’s combined with a low walk rate and near 60% GB%, this is an elite pitcher, though the non-elite strikeout rate does knock his fantasy value down compared to the other top options.

With his strikeout rates throughout his career, it’s really surprising to see Freddy Peralta’s career Stuff+ at just 102, and even a below average 99 in 2024. This year merely marked a rebound to previous levels, rather than a surge to a new level. The most interesting thing here is his fastball velocity surged in 2023, stayed at that level in 2024, then spiked again to another career best this season. It resulted in his best four-seam Stuff+, though it didn’t move the needle much on his strikeout rate. Given his SIERA and xERA overperformance, he might be overvalued next year, as you surely can’t count on another 80%+ LOB%.

Since 2022, Tarik Skubal’s Stuff+ has increased every year, which is pretty crazy since it was already at 112 last year. How much higher could it go?! His velocity has been on a ridiculous trend, rising for a third straight year since 2022, hitting a career best 97.6 MPH. It pumped his strikeout rate up from last year, though fell just short of his short 2023 season.

Yeahhhh, it’s crazy to see Taijuan Walker on a riser list and that rise being to just 90 on the season. I remember when he first debuted how excited I was about a potential breakout. He’s enjoyed a perfectly acceptable career, but aside from a couple of luck-fueled ERAs, he never had that breakout paired with a strikeout rate surge that I hoped for.

Now let’s move over to the fallers.

Wow, the results here are more interesting than for the risers! Of the seven names, all of them did finish the season with a lower Stuff+ grade, but only three suffered strikeout rate declines, while another three actually gained. However, the strikeout rate losses here were far more significant than the gains.

Gosh, this was quite the slide for José Soriano, who was well above average last year, but flipped to below average this season. It was both his sinker and knuckle curve that saw huge declines, especially his curve, which fell from a 104 Stuff+ last year to just 75 this season. The drops didn’t affect his strikeout, though, but it still remained below average. I’m still intrigued here, as he throws 97+ with his sinker and generated a GB% over 60%. That’s a solid foundation, but he needs to improve that strikeout rate and his control. The upside here would then become Framber Valdez.

After a Stuff+ surge in 2024, Yusei Kikuchi gave up all his gains and ended up with the lowest mark of his career this season. The decline was primarily due to his four-seamer and slider, both of which hit career lows. He did lose some velocity, but not enough to believe that’s all to blame. The decline in stuff led to his lowest strikeout rate since his 2019 debut. Along with a jump in walk rate and another inflated BABIP, he crushed fantasy teams’ WHIP marks. If the velocity returns, maybe he rebounds, but at his age, I would probably prefer speculating on someone else.

Corbin Burnes’ Stuff+ fell off the map this year as his trademark cutter’s mark crashed below 100 for the first time. His strikeout rate had been in freefall, dropping every season since his elite 2021 mark, but increasing marginally this year. Then his season ended early as he underwent TJ surgery, so you have to wonder how much that impacted his stuff. He’s obviously going to be a high risk, high reward option for a couple of months next year.

Aaron Nola completed a wholly forgettable season with a career worst Stuff+, a repeat of his reduced strikeout rate, his highest walk rate since 2020, and missed time to injury. With all of those issues, he still dramatically underperformed his SIERA and xERA. I’m not a huge fan by any means, but I could see myself rostering him at a nice discount next year with the expectation his luck returns to normal.

You would think that Andre Pallante, who throws in the mid-90s, would grade out better in Stuff+ and post a better strikeout rate than the mid-teens. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be. That said, I love the extreme GB%, which should raise his floor, but nothing you could do about a 17.2% HR/FB rate and lowly 62.2% LOB%. He’s probably more valuable to the Cardinals, assuming his ERA rebounds, than fantasy owners given the weak strikeout rate.

Martín Pérez is yet another on this list whose season was hampered by injury. Perhaps the big loss of Stuff+ is a good signal that something isn’t quite right with the pitcher’s health.

Yikes, Brandon Pfaadt was last ranked as the Diamondbacks’ second best prospect and 19th overall, and yet he now stands with a career 5.13 ERA! His Stuff+ fell to a career worst 97, but his career mark sits at exactly a league average 100. Shouldn’t his stuff rate better given his former top prospect status?! His slider is his only real standout pitch according to Stuff+, but for whatever reason, he threw it less this year. He continues to allow inflated BABIP marks and has posted well below average LOB% marks the last two seasons. How much of this is bad fortune and how much is deserved? I don’t know, but the loss of strikeout rate to sub-20% is quite shocking. I would probably take a stab cheaply in an NL-Only league, but that’s really it. He was so Jekyll and Hyde this year that it’s impossible to know if he’s breaking out or simply on a good run that will end abruptly by a six-plus run outing (he suffered through six of those this season!).