Starting Pitcher Streamers For Tonight 9/23 & Tomorrow 9/24

The tribe has spoken. Some of you play in leagues that allow you to pick up and start pitchers for that day’s slate of games, while others must add a pitcher a day in advance. Since I enjoy catering to the masses, that means that today you’ll find a super-sized set of streamer recommendations so I don’t skip a day. Remember, the names below are those owned in fewer than 50% of CBS leagues.

9/23

Clay Buchholz vs TB

I know, I know. Skills-wise, he’s been solid since June. What has wreaked havoc on his ERA, however, has been a putrid LOB%. Funny how that works. Last year, he was superb with runners on, stranding nearly 84% of runners. This year, the pendulum has swung the other way and his LOB% has plummeted to just about 63%. He didn’t suddenly forget how to pitch from the stretch overnight, so it’s just been a string of poor fortune. The Rays rank 13th in runs scored in the American League, so it’s as good a matchup as it gets for Buchholz.

Jorge de la Rosa @ SD

De la Rosa’s strikeout rate has rebounded a bit from last year, while he has maintained a similar walk rate and is inducing grounders at the second highest rate of his career. All together, it feels like a skill set that would result in a sub-4.00 SIERA, but that hasn’t been the case. Also interesting is that despite a severely suppressed .258 BABIP, his ERA actually sits just above his SIERA. That’s due to an inflated HR/FB rate and slightly low LOB%.

Aside from the decent skills, the primary reason for de la Rosa making for a good stream was discussed yesterday. The Padres rank dead last in baseball with a .275 wOBA versus left-handers and of course call a pitcher’s park home. Surprisingly, de la Rosa has posted significantly better results at hitter friendly Coors Field this season, but that’s mostly due to a huge disparity in LOB%. He’s a good play tonight.

Robbie Erlin vs COL

Erlin was the beneficiary of Tyson Ross’s season ending and takes his spot in the rotation. He started nine games last year and posted respectable skills and has done the same thing this year. But a .322 BABIP and low LOB% have conspired against him to inflate his ERA, while his SIERA fell below 4.00. Last year, Erlin’s changeup was pretty terrible. It didn’t induce swings and miss and when batters made contact, it was typically a line drive or a fly ball. This year the pitch has improved significantly, as it has generated a SwStk% of 22.1%. It has been his only above average pitch, so one must hope that the improvement is real.

Admittedly, the matchup here isn’t all that good. The ballpark helps, of course, but the Rockies rank first in baseball in wOBA versus lefties. That figure obviously includes their home performance and this year, their home/away split has been absurd at .390/.279. They have been far and away the best offensive team at home, but the second worst away from Coors. That makes Erlin a solid option.

9/24

So I tried to come up with streamer options for those needing to pick one up a day in advance, but alas, it’s simply not a good night to be rolling the dice.

Lisalverto Bonilla vs HOU

Yesterday, Eno introduced you to Bonilla. The 24-year-old was ranked as the Phillies 13th best prospect all the way back in 2011 and we hadn’t heard about him on these pages since. He has pitched in relief for the majority of his minor league career, having made just six starts this year and peaking at 15 back in 2011. But, he’s posted ridiculous strikeout rates everywhere he’s gone. In fact, his lowest mark has been 27.2% over the past three seasons at any one stop.

The Astros rank second in baseball in strikeout rate, but they do have power and are willing to take a walk, so their offense ranks middle of the pack. Bonilla has struggled with his control at times and has already walked 10 batters in his 14.2 innings. He’s a risk for sure, but offers good strikeout potential in this matchup.