Starting Pitcher SIERA Underperformers

Yesterday, I shared and discussed the 10 starting pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched who have outperformed their SIERA marks by the greatest degree. Today is a look at the opposite end of the spectrum — those starters whose ERA has most underperformed their SIERA marks. This could be an early list of pitchers who will be undervalued next season.

It has been so terrible for Justin Masterson that after just six starts with his new team, he was moved to the bullpen in the beginning of September. While his knee injury may be behind his strikeout rate decline (or, simply regression to his mean since last year’s K% was easily a career best) and walk rate increase, I’m not so sure it should also be blamed for the deadly trio of an inflated BABIP and HR/FB ratio, as well as suppressed LOB%. Depending on where he lands in 2015 and his health, he could return to generating mixed league value and come quite cheaply.

Maybe most of Edwin Jackson’s .352 nearly league high (of those with at least 100 innings) BABIP is deserved given his 25.9% line drive rate. It’s hard to determine what happened here as he has continued to induce swinging strikes, while his overall strike percentage, called and foul strike rates are all in line with his career averages. Even when he enjoyed neutral luck, he was nothing more than a streamer option in shallow mixed leagues, of course. So his upside is rather limited and there’s little reason to take the plunge next year outside of NL-Only leagues.

Ricky Nolasco finally enjoys neutral luck last year and then the luck dragons take it all away and laugh as they reverse course. Nolasco’s strikeout rate has declined after his move to the American League as expected, but his other skills are in line with his history. Like Jackson above, even going well, he was nothing more than a streamer option, so he should rightly only be considered in AL-Only leagues next year.

Most figured that the magic couldn’t possibly continue for Clay Buchholz this year, but I doubt anyone expected an ERA above 5.00. After a flukey high called strike rate last year that resulted in a career best strikeout rate, the looking strikes have dropped back in line with his career history, and with it have come the strikeouts. Obviously, Buchholz is neither as good as last year or as bad as this year. He shouldn’t be ignored by shallow mixed leaguers next year, but he’s really just a reserve round pick.

The Yankees made a bet on SIERA when they acquired Brandon McCarthy and sure enough, his ERA has dropped from 5.01 with the Diamondbacks to just 2.54 with the Yankees. All of his luck metrics have moved toward the league average, but because he underperformed his SIERA so significantly in Arizona, his ERA remains well above it despite his good work in New York. His increased velocity is almost surely behind his performance and strikeout rate surge, but at age 31, it’s difficult to project him to sustain the jump next year. He’ll be an interesting guy to project and value next season as he could be a stealthy non-sleeper when all the statheads (of which I am normally part of!) hype him as a sleeper due to his SIERA-ERA discrepancy.

If Marco Estrada ever gets a chance in a starting rotation, especially for a team in a more pitcher friendly home park, I’d be very interested again.

It’s just the luck pendulum swinging around as usual, this time making Mike Minor owners go crazy. Last year he enjoyed a suppressed .272 BABIP and 8.8% HR/FB rate, but those marks have jumped to .325 and 13.1%, respectively, this season. Behind his decline is the loss in effectiveness of his changeup. Eno described how his changeup has changed a month ago and the pitch has induced even fewer grounders and swinging strikes since. That could help explain the 23.6% line drive rate and inflated BABIP. He’s still young and has shown solid skills before, so he’s a good rebound candidate.

How does a pitcher with the quality of offering that Stephen Strasburg possesses allow a 23.2% line drive rate, 13.9% HR/FB rate and .324 BABIP? It boggles the mind. His fastball velocity remains in free fall, but it hasn’t affected his strikeout rate or SwStk%. This year he’ll finally pass through the 200 innings wall, which was one of the knocks on him from a fantasy perspective — a lower innings total for a supposed ace hurt his strikeout and win totals and lessened the impact of his ERA and WHIP. If your league values him as anything less than a top tier starter next year simply because of the pedestrian ERA, draft him and laugh all the way to your Yoo-Hoo shower victory parade.