Starting Pitcher SIERA Overperformers — Through June 6, 2023

Yesterday, I discussed six fantasy relevant starting pitchers who have most underperformed their SIERA marks. Now let’s flip over to the overperformers.

Dane Dunning’s smoke and mirrors act might soon come to an end. With a tiny strikeout rate and SwStk%, there’s no downside cushion if he implodes, as you won’t end up saying, “well, at least he recorded eight strikeouts in the game”. When I see a pitcher overperforming his SIERA so dramatically, I like to check Statcast’s xERA to see if maybe his contact quality against perhaps justifies the low BABIP and/or HR/FB rate. While that wouldn’t necessarily mean he’ll continue to suppress quality contact, at least it tells us whether he has so far this season. Dunning’s xERA is 4.07, still far higher than his actual ERA. It’s meaningfully below his SIERA, but still a notch above 4.00, which would make him pretty worthless in shallow mixed leagues given the dearth of strikeouts. While his last start may have put a dent in your chances of selling high, I would still run and try to get anything you can out of him while his ERA remains well below 3.00.

Okay, I’m going to go out of order for the first time, because…what is up with the Grays?!?! There are three starting pitchers with the last name Gray and all three of them have made the top six in SIERA overperformance?! That’s hilarious.

Somehow, Jon Gray has parlayed a career worst strikeout rate (excluding a smaller sample 2020) and lowest CSW% since his 2015 debut into the lowest ERA of his career. It’s easy to figure out how — he’s rolling with a microscopic .228 BABIP and sky-high 87% LOB%. So, he’s suppressing hits on balls in play, and when the hits do fall, he’s stranding the baserunners. Checking in on xERA, he’s nearly as bad! So that hit suppression on balls in play looks like a complete fluke. His previous career high LOB% is just 75.9%, so it’s hard to believe he suddenly became elite with runners on base overnight.

I’m not sure why the strikeout rate stinks as his velocity is fine and he has thrown more changeups and curves instead of his four-seamer, which typically would result in more strikeouts, not less. Really though, it’s a drop in called strike causing the decline in strikeout rate, as his SwStk% is right in line with his history. Given the chances his strikeout rate rebounds, he’s not an automatic sell high as he could still earn shallow league value, but he might still be able to command far more in return than he’ll be worth the rest of the way.

Josiah Gray is just laughing at me. I drafted him last year in my shallow mixed league, excited about his breakout potential. Instead, he suffered from gopheritis (too many home runs), and drastically underperformed his SIERA. This year, his skills have taken a hit, as his strikeout rate has slid below 20%, and walk rate has risen slightly from an already high rate. However, an inflated LOB% has ensured that a much higher rate of the baserunners he has allowed have been stranded, ensuring that he dramatically overperform his SIERA this time. His xERA agrees about his luck, which makes him appear to be an ideal sell high candidate, as there’s likely to be at least some owner in your league who believes the former top prospect is amid a true breakout.

The final Gray is Sonny Gray who has managed to allow just one home run over 67 innings so far. That has driven a career high 80.6% LOB%. The odd thing is that his .311 BABIP is his highest since 2018. So balls that remain in play have fallen for hits, but they aren’t going over the fence. His underlying skills are as familiar as ever, as his SIERA is right in line with his performance each season since 2019. Even his xERA is in line, suggesting this is truly the same old Gray, but with added home run suppression luck. If you’re an owner, there’s no need to rush to sell high here as his skills are still pretty solid. Even when he starts allowing more home runs, he should still post a sub-4.00 ERA with a bunch of strikeouts the rest of the way. Of course, if someone is willing to pay for him as if he were a near-2.00 ERA pitcher, then by all means, send him away!

You wouldn’t know it based on his ERA, but Shane McClanahan’s skills are down a tick from where they were last year. Most of that is due to a walk rate surge, which is quite out of character for him. Everything else looks normal though and he remains a king at generating swings and misses. The SIERA overperformance here stems from his absurd 92.3% LOB%. That’s a crazy rate of stranded baserunners and cannot possibly last. Still, even regression there wouldn’t push him out of the elite starting pitcher group, but I would still monitor his walk rate as it could signal there could be something wrong mechanically or physically.

Bryce Elder continues to surprise everyone with his sub-90 MPH sinker and former mediocre prospect status. Like the others, most of the overperformance here is driven by his LOB%, which stands at a high 86.3%. Given his high ground ball rate and mediocre strikeout rate, it’s likely he has erased a lot of baserunners via the double play. He appeared in my average exit velocity regressors article the other day, where I compared him to Alex Cobb and Marcus Stroman. That would make him worthy of shallow mixed league rosters, but he’s still going to likely post results a far cry from what he’s done so far. That said, I have a feeling his trade value remains relatively low (though this is league dependent), so he might just be someone to hold onto, as long as your expectations are for a high 3.00 ERA the rest of the way.