Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Increasers — Through Apr 8, 2023

We’re going to continue on reviewing fastball velocities as it’s one of the few metrics that actually mean something this early. Note that for whatever reason, velocity readings are all over the map for the same pitch by the same pitcher, depending on which source I’m looking at, so it makes it kind of impossible to know for sure how hard a pitcher is throwing. Hopefully, the relative numbers are correct, as in a 1.5 MPH increase from one source matches another source, even if the absolute velocities differ. With a second start under a bunch of pitchers’ belts, along with first starts by a number of pitchers, let’s review the increasers again. Any names that appeared in my first article will be skipped in the commentary.

Woah, Ryan Weathers is a new name atop the list, or at least tied atop the list! The former sixth best Padres prospect debuted back in 2021, but spent the majority of his time at Triple-A last year after an underwhelming debut. He’s now part of the team’s six-man rotation, which will cut into his value, but at least he’s not in the minors. In his first start, his four-seamer was fire and he essentially reversed the usage of his changeup and slider compared to last year. Unfortunately, his faster fastball was pathetic at generating swings and misses, but his changeup was elite and slider posted a double digit SwStk%, albeit below league average. His minor league history doesn’t generate much excitement, but this might be a new pitcher with the added velocity. If he’s able to hold onto these gains during his next start, I’d at least take a shot in NL-Only leagues.

Reid Detmers’ appearance here is why I bought him in the two leagues that auctioned in March (LABR drafts in Feb, so went with the projections before knowing his velocity would spike during spring training). After flying through the minors, he endured a poor debut in 2021 over a small sample, but was solid last year. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate has been unimpressive and his 70 grade curveball has generated just a 10% SwStk% over his short career. This year, his Spring velocity spike carried over to his first start and he’s pitching as I type this. In the first inning, his velocity has remained strong, as he maxed at 97.2 MPH and pumped most of his fastballs in the 96 MPH range. Assuming this velocity spike holds, I’m looking for a strikeout rate spike and a big breakout. Wellllll, at least a skills-backed breakout, as last year’s 3.77 ERA could have been considered a breakout by some. But with a mediocre strikeout rate and 4.12 SIERA/4.05 xERA, it wasn’t a breakout in my eyes.

It was just late Feb when our top 100 prospects report indicated that Hayden Wesneski sits 92-95 MPH with his fastball, topping out at 96. Already in his first start, he maxed out at 98.4 MPH, versus a max of just 96.1 MPH last year. Since he made it just 4.2 innings after allowing three runs, it’s possible he was either dropped in your league or still available. He has shown a solid slider/cutter combo, so the tools are there for a breakout year if this velocity spike sticks.

After striking out 28% of batters during spring training, I considered picking him up in AL Tout Wars before the season began. I’m glad I didn’t considering he has delivered an ugly 10.29 ERA in two starts, but the velocity spike is intriguing. However, this might be deceptive, as his max velocity over his first 51 pitches sits at just 95.2 MPH, versus 96.8 MPH last year. When I see that, it means that he hasn’t actually increased his velocity, but reduced the number of fastballs on the low end of his velocity range. That’s why it’s also important to check max velocity to ensure that has increased as well. I see him intrigue here given that all three of his non-fastballs has already recorded double digit SwStk% marks, but backed by a bad offense and with control problems at times, I would probably ignore him.

Freddy Peralta’s velocity last year dropped to its lowest since his 2018 debut, before it spiked in 2019, but has rebounded and more some this season. However, just like Wentz, his max velo during his first start was below his max marks each season since 2019, so it doesn’t appear his velocity has actually increased. He’s pitching today as I type this so it will be interesting to see what his velocity sat at. Increased fastball velocity would be a big bonus as his only non-fastball that’s above average from a SwStk% perspective is his slider. It’s hard to imagine further upside here though as he’s already been a pretty strong strikeout guy throughout his career.

Kris Bubic was one of the better pitching prospects in baseball a number of years ago, but has disappointed with a below average strikeout rate and poor control. After three seasons averaging between 91 and 91.9 MPH with his four-seamer, he averaged over 93 MPH with the pitch during his first start. Again, it’s a deceptive increase as his max finished at just 95.4 MPH versus a 97.0 MPH mark last year. His changeup was elite during that first start and he introduced a new slider which generated a 25% SwStk% in 12 pitches. He should probably ditch his curveball given its low SwStk%. I think there’s potential here, but I’d like to see that velocity spike legitimized first before diving in.

Nick Pivetta’s velocity has bounced around ovr the years. He averaged between 94.6 and 95.0 MPH over his first three years, before his velocity dropped to just 93 MPH in 2020, then it rebounded to 95 MPH in 2021, before falling to just 93.6 MPH last year. So this isn’t so much a velocity spike as it is a velocity rebound, which is still a good thing. But we’ve seen Pivetta before with this velocity and he still has never posted an ERA below 4.53! At age 30, it’s hard to believe a breakout is suddenly going to come, absent a change in pitch mix or true velocity spike (like the previous names, his max velocity is well below previous years, so this spike looks “fake”).

My gosh, count me as one of those forever Yusei Kikuchi supporters who thinks the breakout will come any season now. His velocity first spiked in 2020 after his 2019 MLB debut, and while his strikeout rate did surge, his control has been an issue and he has suffered from gopheritis the last two years. He has now posted an ERA over 5.00 in three of four seasons. Even more velocity might seem like a good thing here, though his problem is seemingly more about control and command. Besides, he’s another part of the “max velocity is below previous seasons” club, so don’t get too excited here. A 38% strikeout rate during spring training excited some, thinking the breakout might be upon us, but of course his walk rate was in double digits as well. I feel like control/command is easier to fix than the quality of a pitcher’s stuff, which is why I keep gambling on him. But at age 32, it might be too late to make meaningful changes. His projections are fun to look at though — a 3.91 ERA from Steamer, 4.62 from ZiPS, and 5.04 from THE BAT, so nobody has a clue what he’ll do.