Starting Pitcher Chart – May 9th

May 9, 2023

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Tuesday, May 9th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Shohei Ohtani	LAA		HOU	R	x	x	x	He’s hitting brilliantly, but still seems like he’s best deployed as a starter
2	Zach Eflin	TBR	at	BAL	R	x	x	x	Maybe he’s the Rays breakout pitcher this yr after Springs was felled by TJ
3	Framber Valdez	HOU	at	LAA	L	x	x	x	Easy Auto-Start regardless of matchup
4	Shane Bieber	CLE		DET	R	x	x	x	The lack of whiffs are still a concern but he’s been undeniably successful otherwise
5	Lucas Giolito	CHW	at	KCR	R	x	x	x	It’s kinda looking like he might be back
6	Jesús Luzardo	MIA	at	ARI	L	x	x	x	Survived a tough ATL start with 5.7 IP/3 ER (4 UER) and 5 Ks; I like him to rebound here
7	Logan Webb	SFG		WSN	R	x	x	x	The shiny 27% K rate could smooth out a bit v. the 3rd hardest team to K vRH
8	Andrew Heaney	TEX	at	SEA	L	x	x	x	Bounced back after the 7 ER opener and this is a great matchup, I’m rolling with him
9	Max Scherzer	NYM	at	CIN	R	x	x	x	Not himself right now with inconsistency start to start, still can’t envision sitting him anywhere
10	George Kirby	SEA		TEX	R	x	x	x	Not the best matchup and Ks have been light, but I can’t really see sitting him anywhere
11	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI		MIA	R	x	x	x	Can’t jump ship after a rough MLB debut
12	Aaron Nola	PHI		TOR	R	x	x	x	12 pt. dip in K-BB rate has his ERA high despite the good WHIP, I think he works through hit
13	Alek Manoah	TOR	at	PHI	R	x	x	x	Getting in a bit of a groove over his L3, did need 3 UER for the 2.12 ERA, but it only jumps to 3.71 if you count ’em
14	Louie Varland	MIN		SDP	R	x	x	x	Sticking with him even after a modest start last time out
15	Clarke Schmidt	NYY		OAK	R	x	x	x	Could be a big step toward that 3.80 SIERA w/this matchup, though any tm can get him when he’s missing spots
16	Charlie Morton	ATL		BOS	R		x	x	First start of 4 ER on the yr; has mostly been fine and remains a start in most cases, even in tough matchups
17	Jameson Taillon	CHC		STL	R			x	Skills say he’ll come around… he’s working up a bit with a max of 85 pitches through 4 starts
18	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL		TBR	R			x	I’m not letting Gibson’s success cloud me here, it’s just that I could understand taking the shot in deeper lgs; has a 3.71 SIERA
19	Michael Wacha	SDP	at	MIN	R			x	He’s a traditional streamer and this is a borderline matchup… I think I’d take the shot in deeper formats
20	Luis L. Ortiz	PIT		COL	R			x	Returning after a cup of coffee last yr; BB suppression will be the key to his success
21	Patrick Corbin	WSN	at	SFG	L			x	Running a 3.70 ERA/1.04 WHIP in his L4, miiiiight be worth a stream
22	Eric Lauer	MIL		LAD	L			x	Any start can be skunked w/his HR issues so it’s a high risk stream… I’m not completely against it w/the way LAD has been hitting (4th in K vLH)
23	Michael Lorenzen	DET	at	CLE	R			x	Deep league streamer playing the big matchup on the heels of a decent 7 IP/1 ER (I say “decent” bc of 2 BB, 1 K)
24	Nick Pivetta	BOS	at	ATL	R				Standard issue streamer, no shot I’d take this gamble
25	Noah Syndergaard	LAD	at	MIL	R				He has 4 Ks in his last 3 starts combined
26	Jack Flaherty	STL	at	CHC	R				He was a pretty tough start before the 10 ER outing… I probably need to see 2-3 solid starts to regain confidence in starting him
27	Drew Rucinski 루친스키	OAK	at	NYY	R				I just don’t see any real upside
28	Luke Weaver	CIN		NYM	R				Flashed a little something with those 16 Ks in the first 2 starts, but too tough to start anywhere right now
29	Connor Seabold	COL	at	PIT	R				I’m not even interested outside of Coors
30	Jordan Lyles	KCR		CHW	R				I just don’t see any real upside

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Tuesday, May 9th Starter Stats

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Shohei Ohtani	LAA		HOU	R	x	x	x	39	2.54	0.87	27%	0.291	24th
2	Zach Eflin	TBR	at	BAL	R	x	x	x	28	2.25	0.96	26%	0.315	16th
3	Framber Valdez	HOU	at	LAA	L	x	x	x	45	2.60	1.16	19%	0.357	5th
4	Shane Bieber	CLE		DET	R	x	x	x	45.2	2.96	1.07	10%	0.283	28th
5	Lucas Giolito	CHW	at	KCR	R	x	x	x	41.2	3.67	1.10	18%	0.299	21st
6	Jesús Luzardo	MIA	at	ARI	L	x	x	x	39.1	3.66	1.40	17%	0.314	20th
7	Logan Webb	SFG		WSN	R	x	x	x	45	3.80	1.11	23%	0.291	25th
8	Andrew Heaney	TEX	at	SEA	L	x	x	x	29.1	5.52	1.30	13%	0.271	28th
9	Max Scherzer	NYM	at	CIN	R	x	x	x	22.2	5.56	1.41	10%	0.304	20th
10	George Kirby	SEA		TEX	R	x	x	x	37.2	3.11	0.98	16%	0.355	3rd
11	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI		MIA	R	x	x	x	4.2	13.50	2.14	9%	0.290	26th
12	Aaron Nola	PHI		TOR	R	x	x	x	42.2	4.64	1.13	14%	0.331	8th
13	Alek Manoah	TOR	at	PHI	R	x	x	x	36.1	4.71	1.65	6%	0.337	6th
14	Louie Varland	MIN		SDP	R	x	x	x	10.2	5.91	1.50	23%	0.293	23rd
15	Clarke Schmidt	NYY		OAK	R	x	x	x	29.1	5.83	1.70	19%	0.300	22nd
16	Charlie Morton	ATL		BOS	R		x	x	34.2	3.38	1.44	11%	0.358	4th
17	Jameson Taillon	CHC		STL	R			x	17	5.29	1.29	22%	0.312	18th
18	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL		TBR	R			x	28	5.46	1.54	20%	0.359	2nd
19	Michael Wacha	SDP	at	MIN	R			x	31.1	5.46	1.40	12%	0.311	19th
20	Luis L. Ortiz	PIT		COL	R			x	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	0.323	12th
21	Patrick Corbin	WSN	at	SFG	L			x	38.1	5.17	1.43	11%	0.295	24th
22	Eric Lauer	MIL		LAD	L			x	30.2	4.40	1.53	11%	0.273	27th
23	Michael Lorenzen	DET	at	CLE	R			x	21	5.14	1.38	10%	0.275	30th
24	Nick Pivetta	BOS	at	ATL	R				30.2	4.99	1.30	16%	0.326	13th
25	Noah Syndergaard	LAD	at	MIL	R				31.1	6.32	1.40	12%	0.316	14th
26	Jack Flaherty	STL	at	CHC	R				34.1	6.29	1.63	9%	0.335	7th
27	Drew Rucinski 루친스키	OAK	at	NYY	R				9.1	7.71	2.25	-4%	0.281	29th
28	Luke Weaver	CIN		NYM	R				16	7.88	1.69	18%	0.326	11th
29	Connor Seabold	COL	at	PIT	R				18.2	5.30	1.50	13%	0.316	15th
30	Jordan Lyles	KCR		CHW	R				40.1	6.69	1.39	9%	0.287	27th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Monday, May 8th Starter Review

Paul’s RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15	NOTE
1	Zac Gallen	ARI		MIA	x	x	x	Another brilliant outing
2	Shane McClanahan	TBR	at	BAL	x	x	x	Ho-hum, another breezy gem… did hit 100 pitches for the 1st time this yr (102)
3	Nestor Cortes	NYY		OAK	x	x	x	We’d love more v. OAK (5 IP/2 ER/4 K), but this is just fine
4	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG		WSN	x	x	x	Kinda nickel & dimed w/7 1B and a 2B doing the damage
5	Tanner Bibee	CLE		DET	x	x	x	Guess those bumps came sooner than anticipated, I’m not concerned by 1 dud
6	Freddy Peralta	MIL		LAD	x	x	x	Now has a 2.50 ERA in 18 IP after 9 ER in 2 duds v. BOS & at SD
7	Hunter Brown	HOU	at	LAA	x	x	x	5 BB sent him packing early so a bad WHIP, but only 2 ER
8	Logan Gilbert	SEA		TEX	x	x	x	Beautiful outing and another 10 Ks in the books
9	Dylan Cease	CHW	at	KCR	x	x	x	Left the bases loaded in the 6th & Bummer allowed all 3 to score
10	Mitch Keller	PIT		COL	x	x	x	Brilliant outing to stop the losing streak; gets a trip to BAL this wknd
11	Marcus Stroman	CHC		STL	x	x	x	Took advantage off the lagging Cards w/a gem (6 IP/2 ER/6 K)
12	Braxton Garrett	MIA	at	ARI	x	x	x	A bad 6th sank him (3 ER), still mostly good and had 6 Ks
13	JP Sears	OAK	at	NYY		x	x	Done in by HRs in the key 5th-6th stretch w/3 in 7 batters (2 righty & 1 switch)
14	Miles Mikolas	STL	at	CHC		x	x	Cubs ran up his count so he was out after 4.3 IP w/96 pitches
15	Patrick Sandoval	LAA		HOU		x	x	I meeeean, 0 BB… but still just 2 Ks
16	Kyle Freeland	COL	at	PIT		x	x	Solid deeper lg stream; modest Ks & no W, but 7 strong
17	Joey Wentz	DET	at	CLE		x	x	HR ball still lurking (1.9 HR), but sharp otherwise in a solid stream
18	Tony Gonsolin	LAD	at	MIL		x	x	Made it 6 IP on just 80 pitches & all 3 runs were unearned (6 Ks)
19	Zack Greinke	KCR		CHW				This is the Zack Greinke experience (5.7 IP/3 ER/2 K)
20	Jon Gray	TEX	at	SEA				Is this the return of Gray? A truly excellent outing: 7 IP/1 ER/8 Ks/W & 20 swinging strikes
21	Kyle Gibson	BAL		TBR				Of course… offfff course he goes 6 IP/2 ER v. TB
22	Jake Irvin	WSN	at	SFG				I Owe You an Apology. I Wasn’t Really Familiar With Your Game.

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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phaddixMember since 2016

1 year ago

UGH – really feeling that L from leaving Jon Gray out of my lineup yesterday!

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to phaddix

Always so tough, but I’m not sure there was a good case to start him. Nothing was looking good