Starting Pitcher Chart – May 7th, 2025
by Paul Sporer
May 7, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.
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Starter Notes May 7, 2025
| PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2025 wOBA RK | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sonny Gray | STL v PIT | x | x | x | 39 | 4.12 | 1.19 | 18% | 26th | Not pitching the best of the 3-x guys but has the best matchup/talent combo (Wacha’s matchup is better, but I prefer Gray’s talent; Sanchez had a recent health scare + TBR bumps up slightly to 23rd vL at home) |
| 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI at TBR | x | x | x | 31 | 3.45 | 1.34 | 21% | 28th | Looked fine in his return from the forearm scare (5 IP/2 ER/3 BB/6 K) and while I don’t love pitching anyone in TBR’s park, they aren’t hitting lefties at all |
| 3 | Hunter Greene | CIN at ATL | x | x | x | 42 | 2.53 | 0.82 | 28% | 13th | So the HRs have returned (1.5), it just hasn’t mattered as he’s been excellent everywhere else w/career-bests in his K (33%) and BB (5%) rates, BABIP (.215), and velo (99.2 mph) |
| 4 | Max Fried | NYY v SDP | x | x | x | 44 | 1.01 | 0.94 | 15% | 14th | Has been the bankable ace NYY needed after the Cole and Gil injuries |
| 5 | Bryan Woo | SEA at ATH | x | x | x | 38 | 2.58 | 0.83 | 21% | 14th | Tough venue, moderately solid matchup, but no world where he sits |
| 6 | Tyler Mahle | TEX at BOS | x | x | x | 37 | 1.19 | 0.98 | 12% | 8th | Big challenge in Fenway but few SPs have been better so far this year |
| 7 | Framber Valdez | HOU at MIL | x | x | x | 41 | 4.39 | 1.27 | 13% | 19th | Hasn’t been dominant, but remains a rotation staple for me |
| 8 | Michael Wacha | KCR v CHW | x | x | x | 38 | 3.52 | 1.25 | 10% | 28th | |
| 9 | Shane Baz | TBR v PHI | x | x | x | 35 | 3.86 | 1.17 | 18% | 12th | Getting smoked by KCR is really tough given how poorly they’ve hit this yr; 2 duds have accounted for 80% of his ER this yr |
| 10 | Kodai Senga | NYM at ARI | x | x | 32 | 1.38 | 1.16 | 15% | 3rd | Tough matchup and multiple BB in ea. of his L5 means he’s not a must-start in shallower lgs | |
| 11 | Tanner Houck | BOS v TEX | x | x | 36 | 6.38 | 1.47 | 11% | 27th | Running a solid 3.50 ERA/1.00 WHIP/22% K-BB in 3 GS since the 11 ER mega-dud at TBR | |
| 12 | José Berríos | TOR at LAA | x | x | 40 | 3.98 | 1.38 | 12% | 25th | Feels like a Team Streamer in 12s/15s and then more of a Standard Streamer in 10s and lower as a solid vet who will bite ya from time-to-time when his duds hit | |
| 13 | Dylan Cease | SDP at NYY | x | x | 33 | 5.61 | 1.60 | 16% | 2nd | Volatile Cease is back and I’m not exactly dying to run him in Yankee Stadium, totally understand a skip | |
| 14 | Grant Holmes | ATL v CIN | x | x | 34 | 4.24 | 1.21 | 11% | 16th | Looked great v. LAD and now has 3 solid starts in his L4 w/1 bad inning at ARI tanking the other start; feels like he’s coming around! | |
| 15 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI v NYM | x | x | 37 | 4.06 | 1.06 | 10% | 9th | Kind of an NL verison of Berríos, running a better WHIP rn thanks to his .213 BABIP but also has a much tougher matchup so I’d still prefer Berríos here | |
| 16 | Casey Mize | DET at COL | x | x | 36 | 2.70 | 1.09 | 12% | 30th | Coors is always scary even w/this brutal Rockies team, but I still see some viability in running Mize here even if just for the W upside | |
| 17 | Ben Brown | CHC v SFG | x | x | 31 | 4.88 | 1.66 | 14% | 17th | Alluring young arm w/1 ER in 3 of L4… the problem is that he allowed 6 ER in other one of those starts; his 2 duds account for 65% of his season’s ER underscoring his downside while the 1 ER in 3 starts came at LAD, v. ARI, and at MIL highlighting his upside; risky but streamable and in line for MIA next wk | |
| 18 | Gunnar Hoglund | ATH v SEA | x | 6 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 32% | 4th | Fantastic MLB debut, but it was at MIA so we have to discount it a bit; SEA is raking and of course this park is scary so let’s be careful here… lines up for at LAD next wk, too, pluuussss J.T. Ginn is working his way back so it might be a while until he’s fantasy relevant again if you don’t run him here | ||
| 19 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA v TOR | x | 36 | 4.21 | 1.54 | 9% | 9th | TOR has been sneaky deece vL and I’m just not sure Kikuchi brings enough upside to gamble | ||
| 20 | Jonathan Cannon | CHW at KCR | x | 38 | 4.26 | 1.45 | 9% | 24th | B2B QS and a good matchup gives him a tinge of streamer viability | ||
| 21 | Logan Allen로건 | CLE at WSN | x | 31 | 4.02 | 1.53 | 5% | 17th | Very risky streamer bc while WSN isn’t a powerhouse, they aren’t a walkover either, espec. for someone w/a meager 5% K-BB | ||
| 22 | Robbie Ray | SFG at CHC | 38 | 3.05 | 1.25 | 13% | 1st | B2B 7 IP/8 K gems aren’t enough to get to confidently run him v. CHC — aces-only for the Cubs rn | |||
| 23 | Michael Soroka | WSN v CLE | 5 | 7.20 | 1.20 | 10% | 20th | 1st start off the IL, let’s wait-and-see, but I bought in during Spring Training and I hope he can get going now that he’s healthy | |||
| 24 | Mitch Keller | PIT at STL | 39 | 4.38 | 1.36 | 10% | 7th | ||||
| 25 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN v BAL | 29 | 4.03 | 1.45 | 15% | 5th | Don’t let BAL’s 13-20 rec. make you think they’re a team to stream against as it’s not the hitting’s fault | |||
| 26 | Quinn Priester | MIL v HOU | 23 | 5.79 | 1.76 | 1% | 23rd | ||||
| 27 | Landon Knack | LAD at MIA | 8 | 7.27 | 1.73 | 2% | 21st | Great matchup, but is there enough here to take the gamble? | |||
| 28 | Kyle Freeland | COL v DET | 36 | 5.70 | 1.46 | 14% | 4th | ||||
| 29 | Charlie Morton | BAL at MIN | 26 | 9.45 | 2.18 | 4% | 22nd | Bullpen time is shortlived as he’s pressed back into SP duty here | |||
| 30 | Valente Bellozo | MIA v LAD | 12 | 4.97 | 1.66 | -2% | 1st |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
pretty sure i know the answer to this….as an orioles fan in a dynasty league that greatly values pitching….prob time to cut Cade Povich? or do yo uwant to roll with hiim for ~half a season
I still have ryan gusto. (other similar guys on rosters: Ben Lively, Kremer, Chad Patrick, Logan Allen, Will Warren, Woods-Richard)
Maybe he is worth keeping around, lol.
The drop would be more about roster flexibility and the need to add bats and RPs on off days to fill out a lineup
I wonder if it’s better to just keep Povich for the long-term aspect and cut Kremer?
I don’t see a lot of upside with Povich. Was homer prone in the minors and the Ks have evaporated in the majors. Has below average stuff, so not much reason to expect the Ks to go up. In a Dynasty, I would rather roll the dice with someone with more upside, but maybe that’s not available on the wire.