Starting Pitcher Chart – May 3rd, 2024
Daily SP Chart archive
The mainstays are great, but there is some big risk in the streamer tiers.
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sonny Gray | STL v CHW | x | x | x | 23 | 1.16 | 0.94 | 31% | 30th | |
| 2 | Tanner Houck | BOS at MIN | x | x | x | 39 | 1.60 | 0.92 | 23% | 13th | |
| 3 | Dylan Cease | SDP at ARI | x | x | x | 35 | 2.78 | 0.87 | 19% | 25th | Had his first real hiccup of the year and essentially doubled his ER total (5 ER v. PHI pushed total to 11) |
| 4 | Aaron Nola | PHI v SFG | x | x | x | 39 | 3.20 | 1.07 | 16% | 18th | |
| 5 | George Kirby | SEA at HOU | x | x | x | 32 | 4.18 | 1.11 | 25% | 6th | That 8 ER dud v. CLE is far in the rearview now w/a 1.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 25 Ks in 18 IP since then |
| 6 | Tanner Bibee | CLE v LAA | x | x | x | 31 | 3.45 | 1.31 | 17% | 15th | Still wild that 8 of his 12 ER have come v. OAK & CHW |
| 7 | Hunter Greene | CIN v BAL | x | x | x | 34 | 3.63 | 1.10 | 21% | 10th | Looked brilliant in TEX w/7 1-hit IP; will this spur a big run? Schedule stays stern here |
| 8 | Ronel Blanco | HOU v SEA | x | x | x | 32 | 1.65 | 0.92 | 13% | 23rd | He has a 2.28 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 23% K-BB in 24 IP *since* the no-hitter |
| 9 | Jordan Hicks | SFG at PHI | x | x | x | 34 | 1.59 | 0.91 | 13% | 9th | He’s been undoubtedly awesome yet I still have some nerves w/him… starting him everywhere, but kinda waiting for the other shoe to drop |
| 10 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR at WSN | x | x | x | 33 | 2.94 | 1.16 | 20% | 21st | Just 2 HR in 6 starts and just a 0.58 HR9 in his last 108 IP dating back to last July |
| 11 | Marcus Stroman | NYY v DET | x | x | x | 31 | 3.69 | 1.42 | 12% | 24th | A bit up and down but he finds his level and DET is still a team to pick on |
| 12 | Aaron Civale | TBR v NYM | x | x | x | 32 | 5.06 | 1.31 | 18% | 17th | The 22% K-BB as a Ray is legitimately awesome but what’s up w/the 5.24 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 1.5 HR9?! Still starting, but trust is waning a bit |
| 13 | Brady Singer | KCR v TEX | x | x | 34 | 2.62 | 1.02 | 15% | 8th | Bounced back from TOR dud and even that was essentially 1 bad inning (3 ER, 4 base runners) | |
| 14 | Ryan Weathers | MIA at OAK | x | x | 29 | 4.55 | 1.48 | 8% | 23rd | Worth a stream, just know there is risk even at OAK | |
| 15 | JP Sears | OAK v MIA | x | x | 33 | 4.64 | 1.12 | 10% | 29th | Was rolling prior to BAL, but no one should’ve started him v BAL so he’s still rolling fantasy-wise | |
| 16 | Reese Olson | DET at NYY | x | x | 28 | 3.18 | 1.31 | 12% | 3rd | His 13% SwStr says there are Ks on the table to be earned and boost that 21% K rate | |
| 17 | Martín Pérez | PIT v COL | x | x | 34 | 2.86 | 1.36 | 9% | 20th | That 2.86 ERA will regress given the 1.36 WHIP, but I’m willing to take the shot that the regression doesn’t start w/COL | |
| 18 | Jose Quintana | NYM at TBR | x | x | 33 | 3.48 | 1.34 | 6% | 24th | Boringly decent streamer and TBR isn’t touching lefties | |
| 19 | Slade Cecconi | ARI v SDP | x | 12 | 2.25 | 0.50 | 23% | 5th | Two great starts so far, but I’m not sure he’s different and thus just a standard streamer | ||
| 20 | José Soriano | LAA at CLE | x | 22 | 4.76 | 1.37 | 9% | 14th | Wanna see how he follows up the dud, but didn’t cut him anywhere | ||
| 21 | Hayden Wesneski | CHC v MIL | x | 10 | 0.87 | 0.68 | 13% | 2nd | Was a big fan last yr so I’m pulling for him, but not yet rushing out to start him | ||
| 22 | Joe Ross | MIL at CHC | x | 25 | 5.40 | 1.68 | 9% | 19th | |||
| 23 | Michael Lorenzen | TEX at KCR | x | 17 | 4.24 | 1.24 | 7% | 11th | |||
| 24 | Cole Irvin | BAL at CIN | 28 | 3.49 | 1.24 | 9% | 14th | ||||
| 25 | Gavin Stone | LAD v ATL | 25 | 4.68 | 1.44 | 6% | 4th | Never starting him v ATL; worth pointing out he has a 2.65 ERA in his L3 despite more BB (8) than Ks (7) | |||
| 26 | Chris Paddack | MIN v BOS | 26 | 5.88 | 1.69 | 12% | 7th | ||||
| 27 | Charlie Morton | ATL at LAD | 30 | 3.60 | 1.13 | 14% | 1st | ||||
| 28 | Cal Quantrill | COL at PIT | 32 | 5.34 | 1.50 | 2% | 27th | ||||
| 29 | Brad Keller | CHW at STL | 1 | 0.00 | 1.20 | -13% | 26th | ||||
| 30 | Patrick Corbin | WSN v TOR | 31 | 6.82 | 1.89 | 6% | 15th |
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Civale’s struggles aren’t unexpected, tbh. He’s always been a guy who runs a weirdly high babip and low strand rate relative to his underlying numbers. His GB rate and HR/FB have always been off compared to what you’d expect from a sinker-cutter pitcher. This year is an extreme example, but the variance start-to-start is expected.
I’m not going to mention C****e by name since I’m starting him today, but if I were to analyze an identical pitcher, I would feel confident in a 3.5 SIERA / 3.4 xFIP guy at home vs NYM.
[Redacted pitcher proceeds to give up 6 ER across 2.2 IP after Gregg feels confident]
Speaking as a Guards fan, that is a familiar feeling when it comes to Mr. Redacted. Guess some dreads are universal xD
Yeah I totally agree as a long-time Civale fan, it’s just so stark to see the volatility juxtaposed against the excellent K-BB rate
Right? It’s so frustrating to be a fan of the guy.