Starting Pitcher Chart – May 3rd

by
May 3, 2023
Apr 14, 2023; Bronx, New York, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Louie Varland (37) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

New Feature Alert: I’ve added a chart of the previous night’s starters with a quick hit take on their performance. That way I don’t have to wait 5 days to give insight on how it went. Let me know what you think about it!

Wednesday, May 3rd Starter Notes
RK PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ NOTE
1 Max Scherzer NYM at DET R x x x Wish it was Max/JV going in the doubleheader at DET, but both should pitch against their former tm if weather cooperates
2 George Kirby SEA at OAK R x x x Mitigating the lack of swing-and-miss w/a beautiful 2% BB rate
3 Shane McClanahan TBR PIT L x x x Only 4 SPs are getting more than his 7.6 runs/gm of support which has allowed TBR to be tight w/his workload (has gone >95 pitches just 1x)
4 Shohei Ohtani LAA at STL R x x x Damn near unhittable (2.9 H), imagine how low his WHIP would be if not for the free passes (13% BB)
5 Kyle Wright ATL at MIA R x x x Rain interrupted best start of the yr; got a little bit of a late start so still finding his footing
6 Logan Webb SFG at HOU R x x x 6+ K in each of his L4… next step is curbing the ugly 1.7 HR rate
7 Shane Bieber CLE at NYY R x x x I was OK w/the velo drop bc he still had a 14% SwStr last yr… 4 straight 4-K gms has him down to 17% K & 10% SwStr, both super underwhelming
8 Framber Valdez HOU SFG L x x x Drop in BB has been counterebalanced by a BABIP spike netting essentially the same WHIP as last yr
9 Marcus Stroman CHC at WSN R x x x ERA will regress as 86% LOB and .236 BABIP smooth out, but WSN might not be the team to start that pullback
10 Dylan Cease CHW MIN R x x x Feeling the effects of 40-grade command as last yr’s sparkling BABIP has regressed considerably (+33 pts to .293); can’t see sitting him, though
11 Andrew Heaney TEX ARI L x x x Just 5 ER across 4 starts since that 7 ER opening dud; 11%+ SwStr in 3 of L4, too
12 Louie Varland MIN at CHW R x x x Velo spike and impressive secondary stuff have put him on the radar everywhere w/a opportunity opening up
13 Alek Manoah TOR at BOS R x x x Getting back in a groove w/just 2 ER and 12 Ks in his L12 IP? Next step is tangibly improving the hideous K-BB
14 Brandon Pfaadt ARI at TEX R x x x Pronounced “Fought”… the impressive prospect could be a fantasy game-changer this yr
15 Aaron Nola PHI at LAD R x x x Instilled some confidence w/a beautiful outing at HOU: 8 IP/1 ER/0 BB/6 K… couldn’t imagine sitting him anywhere
16 Braxton Garrett MIA ATL L x x x I’m feeling confident with him even in difficult matchups after last yr’s run plus his 22 IP so far this yr
17 Joey Lucchesi NYM at DET L x x x Rain ruined the amazing at DET/v. COL 2-step as he’s now slated for a trip to CIN after this… still like him & think he can win out over Megill
18 Kyle Gibson BAL at KCR R x x x Standard issue streamer… has 3 good and 3 bad starts this yr
19 Clarke Schmidt NYY CLE R x x This should be a matchup where the .394 BABIP & 2.5 HR start to regress, but always seems to suffer a bad IP (or 2)… be careful
20 Miles Mikolas STL LAA R x x Just 5 ER in 3 starts after 16 in his first 3 outings
21 Joey Wentz DET NYM L x x Can suffer from “One Bad Inning” Syndrome as evidenced in his 2 duds, but that’s the risk of streamers
22 Seth Lugo SDP CIN R x x Home park protects some of the WHIP downside (1.22 at home; 1.35 on the road)
23 Gavin Stone LAD PHI R x x Not quite the prospect that Pfaadt is, but definitely someone to pick up
24 Mitch Keller PIT at TBR R x Brilliant outing v. LAD gives him a 2.90 ERA/1.10 WHIP in L5 after an Opening Day dud… can he tame the Rays, though?
25 JP Sears OAK SEA L x Modest follow up from 11 K game and still has allowed at least 1 HR in every game
26 Kyle Freeland COL MIL L 3 gems at home, but the 1 dud was 7 ER and saddles him w/a 5.06 home ERA… that’s the downside you’re avoiding by skipping Coors
27 Nick Pivetta BOS TOR R 4.34 SIERA says he’s not too far off his normal level despite a 5.11, but not a spot where I’m using him
28 Michael Lorenzen DET NYM R Not enough upside to take on the sharp risk
29 Eric Lauer MIL at COL L I dare you to start his 2.1 HR in Coors!
30 Jake Irvin WSN CHC R 26-yr old w/5.64 ERA & 1.52 WHIP thru 5 starts at AAA making his MLB debut
31 Luis Cessa CIN at SDP R Rockin’ a hot 1:1 K:BB… just so no one misreads the sarcasm, that is decidedly not hot
32 Zack Greinke KCR BAL R Essentially streaming for ratios given his low Ks & poor W chance… problem is his ratios suck
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 

Wednesday, May 3rd Starter Stats
RK PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB OPP L30 wOBA wOBA RK
1 Max Scherzer NYM at DET R x x x 19.1 3.72 1.19 10% 0.275 28th
2 George Kirby SEA at OAK R x x x 30.2 2.93 0.95 18% 0.301 26th
3 Shane McClanahan TBR PIT L x x x 34 2.12 1.09 21% 0.364 4th
4 Shohei Ohtani LAA at STL R x x x 34 1.85 0.82 22% 0.328 13th
5 Kyle Wright ATL at MIA R x x x 16.2 4.86 1.56 10% 0.303 24th
6 Logan Webb SFG at HOU R x x x 37.1 4.10 1.15 26% 0.312 20th
7 Shane Bieber CLE at NYY R x x x 37.2 3.11 1.14 10% 0.336 11th
8 Framber Valdez HOU SFG L x x x 39 2.54 1.15 18% 0.283 28th
9 Marcus Stroman CHC at WSN R x x x 35.1 2.29 1.05 14% 0.261 30th
10 Dylan Cease CHW MIN R x x x 30.1 4.15 1.38 16% 0.305 21st
11 Andrew Heaney TEX ARI L x x x 24.2 4.38 1.22 15% 0.316 17th
12 Louie Varland MIN at CHW R x x x 6 4.50 1.17 28% 0.311 22nd
13 Alek Manoah TOR at BOS R x x x 31.1 4.88 1.63 6% 0.320 16th
14 Brandon Pfaadt ARI at TEX R x x x #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0.323 12th
15 Aaron Nola PHI at LAD R x x x 36.1 4.46 1.13 13% 0.353 3rd
16 Braxton Garrett MIA ATL L x x x 22 2.45 1.27 17% 0.367 3rd
17 Joey Lucchesi NYM at DET L x x x 12.1 2.19 1.05 17% 0.355 5th
18 Kyle Gibson BAL at KCR R x x x 34.1 3.93 1.31 11% 0.275 29th
19 Clarke Schmidt NYY CLE R x x 25 6.84 1.68 21% 0.298 27th
20 Miles Mikolas STL LAA R x x 31.2 5.97 1.71 13% 0.313 19th
21 Joey Wentz DET NYM L x x 22.1 6.45 1.34 12% 0.303 22nd
22 Seth Lugo SDP CIN R x x 27.2 3.58 1.30 17% 0.338 9th
23 Gavin Stone LAD PHI R x x #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0.343 8th
24 Mitch Keller PIT at TBR R x 35.2 3.53 1.21 19% 0.387 1st
25 JP Sears OAK SEA L x 26 6.23 1.23 19% 0.286 27th
26 Kyle Freeland COL MIL L 33.1 4.32 1.17 10% 0.287 26th
27 Nick Pivetta BOS TOR R 24.2 5.11 1.38 16% 0.349 5th
28 Michael Lorenzen DET NYM R 14 7.07 1.64 15% 0.304 23rd
29 Eric Lauer MIL at COL L 26 5.19 1.50 12% 0.288 25th
30 Jake Irvin WSN CHC R #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0.336 10th
31 Luis Cessa CIN at SDP R 21.2 9.55 2.22 0 0.318 17th
32 Zack Greinke KCR BAL R 31 6.1 1.45 0.119 0.345 7th
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 

Tuesday, May 2nd Starter Review
Paul’s RK PITCHER TM OPP NOTE
1 Joe Ryan MIN at CHW Allowed 1 H in 6 Ip just like his counterpart (Kopech), but just 2 BB and a hot 16% SwStr
2 Gerrit Cole NYY CLE Ho-hum, just another casual gem for the stud
3 Zac Gallen ARI at TEX Perfectly solid outing against a difficult opponent
4 Sandy Alcantara MIA ATL 14% SwStr isn’t netting extra Ks and he’s been rather pedestrian thus far… still not sitting him anywhere
5 Hunter Brown HOU SFG 5 BB ran him before 5 IP… wasn’t a terrible outing, though
6 Tanner Bibee CLE at NYY Yankees lineup isn’t scary rn but it’s still impressive for a rookie to go in there & dominate in his 2nd MLB start
7 Julio Urías LAD PHI Beautiful bounceback after B2B duds included a season-high 17% SwStr
8 Tyler Wells BAL at KCR 3 HRs undercut his chances at a big start, but remains a deep lg start & shallow lg team streamer
9 Tanner Houck BOS TOR All 6 ER came in an ugly 5th inning, but I was impressed that he came back for the 6th & went 1-2-3
10 Joey Lucchesi NYM at DET Rained out
11 Matt Strahm PHI at LAD Tight pitch count makes him a bit more volatile as he can’t work thru the bad starts
12 Bryce Elder ATL at MIA He is an all-formats option as no worse than a team streamer
13 Graham Ashcraft CIN at SDP Continues to outrun modest skills, but at least it was just 1 BB after 4 straight w/at least 3 BB
14 Mason Miller OAK SEA 7 no-hit IP and his 1st 100-pitch outing still couldn’t net a win as the offense gave him just 1 R
15 Freddy Peralta MIL at COL Studs only in Coors… 2 starts there, 2 gems!
16 Hayden Wesneski CHC at WSN WSN isn’t the tm to improve you K% against so I’ll gladly take the 6 IP/1 ER and move on
17 Patrick Sandoval LAA at STL Solid enough outing, but the control issues remain (3 BB, 98 pitches in 5 IP)
18 Anthony DeSclafani SFG at HOU Went even better than I expected with 8 shutout IP… must roster everywhere (still shallow lg availability)
19 Yusei Kikuchi TOR at BOS Punished for the HRs this time and will continue to be if that 2.3 HR doesn’t come down
20 Bryce Miller SEA at OAK Sure it was OAK, but what a brilliant debut that will draw big bids this wknd
21 Michael Wacha SDP CIN Only 5 swinging strikes, but don’t need many v. the 27th road wOBA
22 Ryan Feltner COL MIL Still struggling to trust Feltner in Coors, but like the talent overall
23 Josh Fleming TBR PIT Fine in 3.3 IP, but no real fantasy juice
24 Jon Gray TEX ARI This start didn’t really generate any confidence to start him again
25 Michael Kopech CHW MIN The 6 IP/1 ER feels good, but 5 BB says he wasn’t THAT much better than normal
26 Roansy Contreras PIT at TBR Not a terrible outing for a trip to TB (5.3 IP/4 ER) especially given the 10 base runners
27 Steven Matz STL LAA Needs the DET start to salvage the 2-step
28 Michael Lorenzen DET NYM Rained out
29 Trevor Williams WSN CHC Maybe didn’t give him enough consideration for Tuesday… now has 4 starts of 2 or fewer ER
30 Ryan Yarbrough KCR BAL About as expected
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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TheUncool
1 year ago

Was tempted to start Pfaadt in part because I could probably use every decent start to keep from falling too far behind in Ws and Ks while I (still) wait for 3 of my best 4 SPs (in my salary dynasty) to finally play at all, LOL… but think dem Rangers look a bit too scary particularly in their own homepark these days (even w/out Seager in the lineup) and against someone who throws lots of strikes for flyballs, not grounders…

Last edited 1 year ago by TheUncool
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