Starting Pitcher Chart – May 1st, 2025
by Paul Sporer
May 1, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th — a little earlier than last yr), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th which is still a pretty small sample, but we can start attacking some cold lineups or be more careful with those performing well so far), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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Starter Notes May 1, 2025
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2025 wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Skenes | PIT v CHC | x | x | x | 37 | 2.39 | 0.80 | 25% | 5th | Another big matchup for Skenes and he went into Chavez Ravine and absolutely dealt!! (6.3 IP scoreless w/9 Ks, 0 BB) |
| 2 | Shane Baz | TBR v KCR | x | x | x | 29 | 2.45 | 0.99 | 24% | 29th | 1 month in I’ve been dead wrong on Baz; climbing my board significantly after a 68th ranking in the spring, though I mentioned he gives me fits as I was a huge fan in his prospect days; not a full-blown ace yet but has a lot of trust right now |
| 3 | Justin Verlander | SFG v COL | x | x | x | 30 | 4.99 | 1.40 | 12% | 27th | Not just a matchup play as JV is riding back-to-back QS at LAA and v. TEX w/an 18% K-BB & just 1 HR in those 12 IP |
| 4 | Seth Lugo | KCR at TBR | x | x | x | 38 | 3.08 | 1.08 | 11% | 10th | Best start of the yr last time out v. HOU w/8 shutout IP incl. 8 Ks and 1 BB; a trip to TBR isn’t worry-free, but he’s still a rotation fixture in 12s+ while no worse than a team streamer in 10s |
| 5 | Kodai Senga | NYM v ARI | x | x | x | 28 | 1.26 | 1.05 | 14% | 2nd | Haven’t seen the bat-missing dominance yet (23% K, 12% SwStr), but just 1 HR, a .208 AVG, and 85% have buoyed his production while he gets his core skills on track |
| 6 | Casey Mize | DET at LAA | x | x | x | 29 | 2.12 | 1.04 | 14% | 24th | After a fast start, LAA is dead last in wOBA vR over the last 2 wks and definitely worth picking on w/many SPs |
| 7 | Matthew Liberatore | STL at CIN | x | x | x | 31 | 3.19 | 0.97 | 21% | 13th | is this happening? Is it real?! At least 6 IP in all 5 GS powered by an MLB-best 1.7% BB |
| 8 | Tyler Mahle | TEX v ATH | x | x | x | 31 | 1.14 | 0.98 | 11% | 17th | Similar to Senga where a modest K-BB certainly doesn’t support the brilliant ratios, but 0 HR, a .165 AVG, and 87% LOB are driving the success |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | ARI at NYM | x | x | 32 | 5.57 | 1.39 | 14% | 16th | Alternating success start-to-start when you check the Game Scores: 38-81-28-56-37-51… concerning signs: 11% BB, 10% SwStr, and 1.4 HR9, perhaps I was wrong that ’24 was a classic World Series hangover | |
| 10 | Colin Rea | CHC at PIT | x | x | 18 | 0.96 | 1.07 | 21% | 25th | Fully stretched out w/92 pitches last time out and now has a great matchup to stay hot | |
| 11 | Chad Patrick | MIL at CHW | x | x | 25 | 2.45 | 1.32 | 10% | 28th | Mostly a matchup play as the 1.32 WHIP and 10% K-BB don’t support that sparkly ERA | |
| 12 | Andrew Abbott | CIN v STL | x | 15 | 3.60 | 1.13 | 20% | 10th | Smoked at COL, but of course I was easily passing on that start so I don’t hold it against him too much; STL is no cakewalk, but there is at least some streamability here | ||
| 13 | José Berríos | TOR v BOS | x | 34 | 4.24 | 1.41 | 9% | 7th | Popped off at NYY though I don’t blame anyone who passed on the matchup and I can also see being cautious here as his 9% K-BB is 72nd among 85 qualified SPs | ||
| 14 | Tanner Houck | BOS at TOR | x | 29 | 7.58 | 1.69 | 9% | 30th | Even if you throw the 11 ER start out, he still has a 4.60 ERA/1.40 WHIP in 27.3 IP… great matchup, but can we really trust him right now? | ||
| 15 | Ben Lively | CLE v MIN | x | 30 | 4.40 | 1.34 | 10% | 20th | Not a bad matchup, but there just isn’t a ton of upside to chase here | ||
| 16 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA v DET | x | 31 | 4.31 | 1.60 | 7% | 11th | I just don’t have a ton of trust in Kikuchi; his run down the stretch was dope last summer, but he looks almost nothing like that guy w/his 2nd-worst K & BB rates and worst SwStr | ||
| 17 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH at TEX | 28 | 6.04 | 1.62 | 8% | 17th | Opened w/6 scoreless at SEA, since: 7.66 ERA/1.90 WHIP and just a 3% K-BB in 22.3 IP | |||
| 18 | Taijuan Walker | PHI v WSN | 22 | 2.78 | 1.37 | 10% | 12th | ||||
| 19 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN at CLE | 24 | 4.07 | 1.44 | 19% | 21st | ||||
| 20 | Kyle Freeland | COL at SFG | 30 | 5.93 | 1.45 | 14% | 21st | ||||
| 21 | Brad Lord | WSN at PHI | 17 | 4.67 | 1.73 | 5% | 18th | ||||
| 22 | Sean Burke | CHW v MIL | 27 | 6.00 | 1.48 | 7% | 11th |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
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“Even if you throw the 11 ER start out, he still has a 7.58 ERA/1.83 WHIP in 27.3 IP…”
If you take out the horrible start, Tanner Houck has a 4.65 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 27.1 IP.
Gonna blame the late-night writing on that one, lol… bc the ERA/WHIP I put were his full-season numbers!