Starting Pitcher Chart – May 16th, 2024
Daily SP Chart archive
What a treat on Thursday night. It’s a short slate, so you can focus all your attention on Jared Jones for the early game and then end the night with Tyler Glasnow’s start against the Reds.
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD v CIN | x | x | x | 57 | 2.53 | 0.86 | 27% | 27th | Only Ranger Suárez has been better than Glasnow to this point according to the Player Rater |
| 2 | Jared Jones | PIT at CHC | x | x | x | 47 | 2.68 | 0.87 | 27% | 18th | We don’t really know what kind of IP limit he might face after 126 last yr; I don’t see why 160 isn’t doable, that’d leave 19-20 more starts under his current IP/GS (~5.7)… I’m not too worried either way, I’m along for the ride, however it goes |
| 3 | Justin Steele | CHC v PIT | x | x | x | 13 | 4.73 | 1.20 | 13% | 11th | 1 up, 1 down off the IL, but hasn’t reached 5 IP in either of ’em… I’m sticking with him |
| 4 | Joe Ryan | MIN v NYY | x | x | x | 47 | 3.21 | 0.99 | 25% | 2nd | ERA is at the mercy of his HR9 and it’s running a very useful 1.1 so far w/an 11% HR/FB; only 1 multi-HR gm so far, but NYY will test that (1st in HRs v. R) |
| 5 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY at MIN | x | x | x | 42 | 2.95 | 1.27 | 18% | 9th | Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any start, going at least 5 IP in all but one |
| 6 | Cooper Criswell | BOS v TBR | x | x | x | 25 | 2.10 | 1.01 | 20% | 21st | Has a 1.40 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 30% K-BB in his L4, going at least 5 IP in 3 of ’em |
| 7 | Zack Littell | TBR at BOS | x | x | 44 | 3.02 | 1.28 | 20% | 10th | Just an out away from 3 straight QS after the DET blowup, but Fenway is skippable in spots | |
| 8 | Cristian Javier | HOU v OAK | x | x | 24 | 4.01 | 1.42 | 3% | 13th | A rough rehab start and brutal return off the IL (7 ER in 1.3 IP) give me some caution here; I’m holding, but not definitely starting | |
| 9 | Joey Estes | OAK at HOU | x | 5 | 1.80 | 0.40 | 29% | 8th | Excellent debut put him on the radar, but I’m more inclined to skip here and hold for the v. COL next wk | ||
| 10 | Taijuan Walker | PHI v NYM | x | 18 | 4.82 | 1.34 | 14% | 16th | He’s fine for deep leagues, I never really understand the fierce backlash against Walker | ||
| 11 | Jose Quintana | NYM at PHI | 41 | 5.44 | 1.55 | 5% | 7th | Just not doing enough to get batters out consistently (5% K-BB, 7% SwStr, 1.3 HR9) | |||
| 12 | Nick Martinez | CIN at LAD | 33 | 4.86 | 1.35 | 14% | 1st | Wouldn’t be starting him even if his SP ERA was way better than the current 6.86 |
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but that just means it is a riskier stream as the league gets shallower.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can generally expand these recommendations a bit for points leagues.
On the pod a week or two ago, you were talking about how people sometimes look at Paddack and all we remember is the great run in 2019 when he came up and we need to look at it and realize . . . . that was 5 years ago now. Maybe it just isn’t there.
That’s where I’m getting to with Javier. I did a bunch of research on him when he came up and he was so interesting as an extreme flyball pitcher who was also a contact manager with low EVs, so lots of lazy pop-ups. Well, a cold, hard look at his numbers shows that his xERA, FIP and xFIP have all been in the mid-4s in 3 of the last 4 years (& if you look at just FIP and xFIP, he’s been bad 4 of his 5 years with only 2022 being good). His velo is down, Ks down, and this year in particular his BB are up. His EVs have been up ever since that debut in 2020. Not bad, but not the great 86.9 and 29.3 hard% from his rookie year.
I’ve got him on my roster and I think where I am with him is I need to see something genuinely good to keep him or he becomes waiver fodder for me. I might hang in there for the next start against the Angels but I could definitely move on if need be
yeah I think that’s really well said… I think Tanner Bibee is still living off his rookie year a bit, too. Not saying he isn’t good and I am still rostering him everywhere, but I had to step back and realize Bibee’s track record isn’t SOOO deep that he has to be trusted forever. If he keeps playing down to his competition as we’ve seen, there could be some trouble going fwd.