Starting Pitcher Chart – May 14th, 2024
Daily SP Chart archive
Everyone gets a comment today!
As we were talking through FAAB on Sunday night, my friend Gregg astutely pointed out that Oakland’s Win potential for their SPs is a lot higher than it was at the start of season. They now flaunt the best closer in baseball to maintain any leads they do get and they’re slugging the ball around a decent bit to obtain said leads. Mason Miller simply has a negative FIP!!! That’s right, FIP goes into the negative. He snatches runs off the board when he comes out of the pen. It probably goes without saying, but yes, his -0.17 FIP is the best in baseball. That tends to happen when you strike out more than half your batters (55% K rate).
On the offensive side, Brent Rooker is showing that last year was no fluke with a 1.021 OPS and 10 HR, good for 3rd and t-4th, respectively. He’s not the only one hitting, though, as their 55 HRs rank 4th in the league aiding them to a palatable 102 wRC+. In addition to Rooker’s 187 wRC+, they are getting big contributions from Abraham Toro (137), JJ Bleday (122), Tyler Nevin (116), and Shea Langeliers (114) as well as small sample gods Kyle McCann (211 in 39 PA), Brett Harris (126 in 42), and Esteury Ruiz (112 in 58) making the most of their time so far.
Unfortunately one of the prime beneficiaries of this improved outlook for Oakland, Paul Blackburn, hit the IL today with a broken foot. However, it does bring Joey Estes back up which is a full circle moment because that’s who Gregg and I were discussing on Sunday when he pointed out Oakland’s newly improved outlook. Estes has a HR issue that will make him risky even in the best setups, but a shiny season debut on Saturday (5 IP/1 ER/0 BB/5 Ks) plus this opportunity does at least put him on the deep league radar. He gets a trip to Houston this week which I’d pass on, but if you’re a fan in a daily moves league you might consider stashing before that start because if he surprises me and does do well against the Astros, there’ll be a lot of attention for his Colorado start at home.
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sonny Gray | STL at LAA | x | x | x | 35 | 2.29 | 0.96 | 28% | 17th | Defeating the inevitable HR9 regression (+.6 to 1.0) w/an elite 11 pt. jump in K-BB to 28% |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | SDP v COL | x | x | x | 49 | 2.19 | 0.75 | 24% | 19th | Mixing in a cutter at times, but otherwise not too different from 2021-23… just on the positive end of BABIP & HR/FB |
| 3 | Chris Sale | ATL v CHC | x | x | x | 42 | 2.95 | 0.98 | 26% | 2nd | Sale’s once again operating at an elite level |
| 4 | Logan Gilbert | SEA v KCR | x | x | x | 52 | 2.94 | 0.94 | 20% | 11th | Downshift in four-seamer in favor of new cutter has paid big dividends with his whole arsenal looking great so far |
| 5 | Kyle Bradish | BAL v TOR | x | x | x | 9 | 1.86 | 1.24 | 23% | 22nd | He’s been great in 2 start since returning from the IL |
| 6 | Nick Pivetta | BOS v TBR | x | x | x | 15 | 3.60 | 1.13 | 20% | 18th | Sat him for the ATL start fresh off the IL, but he’s going right back in the lineup despite the poor performance |
| 7 | Aaron Nola | PHI at NYM | x | x | x | 49 | 3.67 | 1.20 | 16% | 13th | Pretty much the guy he was last year, but on the better end of the outcome spectrum so far |
| 8 | Hunter Greene | CIN at ARI | x | x | x | 45 | 3.38 | 1.24 | 17% | 26th | 9 BB in his L2 after just 3 in the 2 starts before that… the rollercoaster continues |
| 9 | Reid Detmers | LAA v STL | x | x | x | 45 | 4.96 | 1.28 | 18% | 29th | Late breakdowns have spoiled his last few starts w/the 3rd time through rearing its ugly head: 1.076 OPS in 42 PA (.654 first 2x) |
| 10 | Ronel Blanco | HOU v OAK | x | x | x | 44 | 2.23 | 1.02 | 12% | 16th | His continued excellence has gone under the radar bc of HOU’s struggles as a team (3.38 ERA in 29.3 IP since 15 shutout IP to open the yr) |
| 11 | Carlos Rodón | NYY at MIN | x | x | x | 43 | 3.56 | 1.26 | 16% | 8th | Great work v. HOU, including a season-high 16 swinging strikes |
| 12 | Mitchell Parker | WSN at CHW | x | x | x | 27 | 2.67 | 1.07 | 16% | 30th | Finally the schedule relents with a gem matchup for one of the more surprising early season standouts |
| 13 | Reese Olson | DET v MIA | x | x | x | 39 | 2.52 | 1.12 | 12% | 27th | Kinda been under the radar w/that sparkly ERA, but his 0-4 record has no doubt smothered the fantasy $ output |
| 14 | Erick Fedde 페디 | CHW v WSN | x | x | x | 45 | 3.00 | 1.16 | 16% | 14th | Ks are sporadic and of course Ws will be, too (though he is 3-0!), but he’s a solid Team Streamer for deeper formats & Standard Streamer elsewhere |
| 15 | José Buttó | NYM v PHI | x | x | 33 | 3.00 | 1.15 | 13% | 4th | 13% BB rate will breedly some volatility, but if he can continue to limit hits at a great clip, there is still plenty to like here | |
| 16 | Ben Lively 라이블리 | CLE at TEX | x | x | 27 | 2.63 | 1.21 | 15% | 5th | CLE needed one of their projects to come through w/Bieber down, Bibee inconsistent, and Allen struggling… ERA will rise, but he is streamable even w/a low-4.00s ERA projection | |
| 17 | Michael Wacha | KCR at SEA | x | x | 43 | 5.15 | 1.44 | 12% | 25th | Not seeing enough change in the profile to believe he’s much different than normal, just running a bit cold w/the high BABIP & low LOB% | |
| 18 | Chris Bassitt | TOR at BAL | x | x | 42 | 5.06 | 1.55 | 11% | 12th | Similar to Wacha except that he’s pitching better of late, otherwise he’s mostly himself but the 4 duds are outweighing the 4 gems | |
| 19 | Ryan Weathers | MIA at DET | x | x | 41 | 4.54 | 1.32 | 10% | 19th | Coming off a pair of baseline QS and gets a solid matchup, so we ride the wave… if DET can wait him out, they have a chance (20th in BB% vL) | |
| 20 | Aaron Civale | TBR at BOS | x | x | 41 | 5.88 | 1.35 | 17% | 10th | Streamable, but also cuttable… hasn’t made it 5 IP in any of his L4, getting blasted 3 of ’em: 9.82 ERA, 1.94 WHIP | |
| 21 | JP Sears | OAK at HOU | x | x | 45 | 4.20 | 1.11 | 11% | 7th | While OAK’s better SPs aren’t an immediate runaway right now, let’s be careful here with Sears. HOU can still hit vL so this a total toss-up | |
| 22 | Joe Ross | MIL v PIT | x | x | 36 | 4.75 | 1.47 | 9% | 30th | Has been a bankable streamer: 2.31 ERA/1.11 WHIP v. sub-.500 tms | 5.92/1.64 v. =>.500 tms | |
| 23 | Gavin Stone | LAD at SFG | x | x | 38 | 3.55 | 1.26 | 9% | 21st | Results are outpacing the skills, but that cushion of being on a great tm is part of why I iked him so much bc he can deliver value thanks to strong Run and Bullpen Support | |
| 24 | Chris Paddack | MIN v NYY | x | 37 | 4.34 | 1.50 | 17% | 3rd | 3 gems in his L4 have him riding high, but he remains a matchup play so this isn’t a must-start | ||
| 25 | Slade Cecconi | ARI v CIN | x | 21 | 4.15 | 0.88 | 13% | 28th | Just went to CIN and handled them well enough (5.3 IP/1 ER) despite 3 BB/2 K; just a 20% K undercuts streamer upside | ||
| 26 | Cal Quantrill | COL at SDP | x | 45 | 3.94 | 1.29 | 7% | 6th | He’s been more good than bad including 3 absolute gems (all done w/in is L4) and yet I remain very nervous to run him even away from Coors | ||
| 27 | Jameson Taillon | CHC at ATL | x | 24 | 1.13 | 0.88 | 12% | 7th | Fantastic in 4 starts since his IL return, but do we really want to test it at ATL?! | ||
| 28 | Keaton Winn | SFG v LAD | 38 | 5.63 | 1.23 | 11% | 1st | Smoked at COL & at PHI his L2 and the schedule doesn’t let up here w/LAD | |||
| 29 | Jack Leiter | TEX v CLE | 7 | 12.91 | 2.35 | 7% | 20th | Careful pouring that Leiter fluid into your rotation | |||
| 30 | Quinn Priester | PIT at MIL | 21 | 3.86 | 1.43 | 4% | 2nd | There is a path to him being good, it just might take some time for him to really find it… this isn’t the spot to stream him |
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but that just means it is a riskier stream as the league gets shallower.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can generally expand these recommendations a bit for points leagues.
Note on Lively: He’s had a very easy schedule so far outside of the Atlanta start with the White Sox, Trout-less Angels, and 2 against a then-injury ravaged Red Sox making up the rest of his opponents, and has a 12:8 K/BB ratio in his last 3 outings. I’m fully out on him until he shows a good outing against at least an average offense