Starting Pitcher Chart – May 13th, 2025

May 13, 2025

The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

JUMP TO 2-START CHART

—

Starter Notes May 13, 2025

RK	PITCHER	GAME	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	2025 wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Kodai Senga	NYM v PIT	x	x	x	38	1.16	1.16	12%	29th	Skills aren’t exactly backing up his filthy 0.80 ERA from is L6, but he’s got the best matchups of the studs
2	Dylan Cease	SDP v LAA	x	x	x	40	4.91	1.41	17%	26th	Has allowed just 9 ER in 5 starts since the 9 ER dud at ATH
3	Framber Valdez	HOU v KCR	x	x	x	48	3.94	1.19	14%	25th
4	Jesús Luzardo	PHI v STL	x	x	x	47	2.11	1.21	20%	9th
5	Max Fried	NYY at SEA	x	x	x	51	1.05	0.91	17%	12th
6	Kris Bubic	KCR at HOU	x	x	x	48	1.69	1.10	17%	14th
7	Spencer Schwellenbach	ATL v WSN	x	x	x	47	3.61	1.12	18%	20th
8	Sonny Gray	STL at PHI	x	x	x	46	3.50	1.08	19%	10th
9	Bryan Woo	SEA v NYY	x	x	x	44	3.25	0.92	21%	1st	Tough matchup, but I can’t envision benching him anywhere; he’s gone 6+ IP in every start, allowing more than 3 ER just 2x
10	Andrew Abbott	CIN v CHW		x	x	24	2.25	1.17	19%	27th	I’m not fully bought in on Abbott overall, but we gotta take advantage of the schedule here (OK running the 2-step w/CLE on the wknd, too)
11	Ben Brown	CHC v MIA		x	x	36	4.95	1.65	17%	22nd	1st of B2B starts v. MIA, though next wk’s comes w/an at CIN attached on the end
12	Robbie Ray	SFG v ARI		x	x	44	2.84	1.20	13%	11th	Old school Ray is back with nasty stuff that’s hard to hit, but also hard to control… he’ll go as far as his HR suppression takes him; at 1.0 HR9 he can maintain a good ERA, but if it creeps up, his mid-4.00s ERA indicators become prescient
13	José Berríos	TOR v TBR		x	x	46	3.86	1.41	12%	16th	A standard streamer in 10s & lower and team streamers in 12s or deeper
14	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI at SFG		x	x	46	3.28	1.22	16%	18th	A team streamer everywhere, he’s startable but here but then his 2-step next wk kicks off at LAD :grimace:
15	Shane Baz	TBR at TOR			x	38	4.93	1.33	16%	24th	Absolutely brutal 3 of his L4, but then the 4th was 7 IP/0 ER at SDP showcasing his upside; not the worst risk, just know there is a sharp downside
16	Michael Soroka	WSN at ATL			x	10	7.20	1.30	19%	15th	5 scoreless w/8 Ks v. CLE before a 4-run 6th inning; those runs counts but I do think those one-bad-inning outings can be indicative of a pitcher being close to clicking in, espec. a guy off the IL; risky 2-step, but I’m open to it in deep lgs & maybe even some medium lg YOLO throws
17	Keider Montero	DET v BOS			x	21	4.15	1.48	5%	11th	There’s a good bit of risk here, but with Holton starting ahead of him, it’s not a bad throw for a pure Win chase
18	Landon Knack	LAD v ATH			x	13	4.61	1.46	8%	13th	No opener, but another pure Win chase if you’ve got use for that
19	Jack Leiter	TEX v COL			x	23	5.09	1.30	7%	28th	Remember that an “x” doesn’t mean must start in a partiular format, but any mildly competent arm has some appeal v. COL, especially when it’s not in Coors
20	José Soriano	LAA at SDP				45	4.00	1.53	9%	5th	I like TEMU Dustin May as an idea and it’s fun to watch him blast off 100-mph sinkers, but even May’s fantasy appeal is limited and he has a great shot to win each of his starts, Soriano doesn’t even that; hold for at ATH/v. MIA 2-step next wk
21	Kyle Freeland	COL at TEX				39	6.41	1.65	13%	20th	Not a terrible matchup and it is outside of Coors, but how much upside is there? Dollander found his footing & went off, but he brings a K upside Freeland just doesn’t have so you’re chasing 5-6 decent IP of work w/very little W upside
22	Mitch Keller	PIT at NYM				45	4.40	1.40	10%	6th	Better of late since the 7 ER dud v. NYY (3.57 ERA/1.28 WHIP in L6), but I’m still inclined to skip this and reconsider his 2-step of CIN/MIL next wk
23	Logan Allen	CLE v MIL				35	4.33	1.67	4%	21st	It’s about the volatility range w/skillsets like this and his Game Scores (50 is avg.) highlight the up & down nature: 34, 56, 69, 59, 16, 49, 35
24	Brayan Bello	BOS at DET				22	2.01	1.34	1%	12th	Don’t be fooled by this ERA, it’s being propped up by a 97% LOB rate and .234 BABIP; a 1% K-BB is impossibly bad and w/out sharp improvements, there’s a substantial fall-off coming
25	Simeon Woods Richardson	MIN at BAL				33	4.01	1.43	13%	9th	Low W upside bc while MIN is playing much better of late, he’s averaging sub-5 IP per start
26	Cade Povich	BAL v MIN				35	5.55	1.54	11%	18th	Just not enough juice to go for it here, even for the 2-step bc he doesn’t miss a ton of bats; he’ll remain on my radar in case things turn, but I’m out on him until he strings a few together w/some skill improvement
27	Jeffrey Springs	ATH at LAD				39	4.81	1.42	7%	2nd	Has just a 15% K and 3% K-BB in 7 starts since his Opening Day gem of 6 scoreless w/9 Ks and 1 BB
28	Quinn Priester	MIL at CLE				28	5.08	1.66	1%	17th
29	Jonathan Cannon	CHW at CIN				44	4.09	1.45	8%	14th
30	Valente Bellozo	MIA at CHC				18	3.50	1.33	5%	8th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

2-START CHART

2-Start Chart for the Week of May 12th

RANK	PITCHER	TYPE	MATCHUPS	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	Pitch+
1	Michael King	1	LAA/SEA	44.2	2.22	0.99	19%	104
2	Paul Skenes	1	at NYM/at PHI	48.2	2.77	0.95	18%	105
3	Max Fried	1	at SEA/NYM	51.2	1.05	0.91	17%	102
4	Cristopher Sánchez	1	STL/PIT	37.1	2.89	1.23	19%	98
5	Spencer Schwellenbach	2	WAS/at BOS	47.1	3.61	1.12	18%	108
6	Tyler Mahle	2	COL/HOU	42.2	1.48	0.98	10%	113
7	Matthew Liberatore	2	at PHI/at KCR	41	3.07	0.95	20%	108
8	Ryan Gusto	3	KCR/at TEX	27.2	2.93	1.27	18%	97
9	Shane Baz	3	at TOR/at MIA	38.1	4.93	1.33	16%	100
10	Colin Rea	3	MIA/CWS	29.2	2.43	1.21	15%	100
11	Michael Wacha	3	at HOU/STL	45.1	2.98	1.15	11%	101
12	Merrill Kelly	3	at SFG/COL	44	4.09	1.05	12%	107
13	Clarke Schmidt	3	at SEA/NYM	20.2	4.79	1.40	10%	100
14	David Peterson	3	PIT/at NYY	38.1	3.52	1.38	14%	103
15	José Berríos	3	TBR/DET	46.2	3.86	1.41	12%	95
16	Andrew Abbott	4	CHW/CLE	24	2.25	1.17	19%	93
17	Grant Holmes	4	WAS/at BOS	39.1	4.58	1.25	12%	100
18	Michael Soroka	4	at ATL/at BAL	10	7.20	1.30	19%	103
19	Justin Verlander	4	ARI/ATH	42	4.50	1.31	11%	96
20	Tanner Houck	4	at DET/ATL	41.1	6.10	1.50	10%	105
21	Jake Irvin	4	at ATL/at BAL	48	3.94	1.15	10%	105
22	Emerson Hancock	4	NYY/at SDP	23.2	5.70	1.56	10%	102
23	Yusei Kikuchi	4	at SDP/at LAD	42.1	3.83	1.46	10%	107
24	Jackson Jobe	4	BOS/at TOR	27.2	4.88	1.48	4%	96
25	Ben Lively	5	MIL/at CIN	41.2	3.46	1.20	9%	105
26	Cade Povich	5	MIN/WAS	35.2	5.55	1.54	11%	105
27	Simeon Woods Richardson	5	at BAL/at MIL	33.2	4.01	1.43	13%	99
28	Jack Leiter	5	COL/HOU	23	5.09	1.30	7%	89
29	Jeffrey Springs	5	at LAD/at SFG	39.1	4.81	1.42	7%	96
30	Chase Dollander	6	at TEX/at ARI	28	7.71	1.64	9%	90
31	Jonathan Cannon	6	at CIN/at CHC	44	4.09	1.45	8%	102
32	Cal Quantrill	6	at CHC/TBR	31.2	7.11	1.67	8%	100

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues