Starting Pitcher Chart – May 13th, 2025
by Paul Sporer
May 13, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.
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Starter Notes May 13, 2025
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2025 wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kodai Senga | NYM v PIT | x | x | x | 38 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 12% | 29th | Skills aren’t exactly backing up his filthy 0.80 ERA from is L6, but he’s got the best matchups of the studs |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | SDP v LAA | x | x | x | 40 | 4.91 | 1.41 | 17% | 26th | Has allowed just 9 ER in 5 starts since the 9 ER dud at ATH |
| 3 | Framber Valdez | HOU v KCR | x | x | x | 48 | 3.94 | 1.19 | 14% | 25th | |
| 4 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI v STL | x | x | x | 47 | 2.11 | 1.21 | 20% | 9th | |
| 5 | Max Fried | NYY at SEA | x | x | x | 51 | 1.05 | 0.91 | 17% | 12th | |
| 6 | Kris Bubic | KCR at HOU | x | x | x | 48 | 1.69 | 1.10 | 17% | 14th | |
| 7 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL v WSN | x | x | x | 47 | 3.61 | 1.12 | 18% | 20th | |
| 8 | Sonny Gray | STL at PHI | x | x | x | 46 | 3.50 | 1.08 | 19% | 10th | |
| 9 | Bryan Woo | SEA v NYY | x | x | x | 44 | 3.25 | 0.92 | 21% | 1st | Tough matchup, but I can’t envision benching him anywhere; he’s gone 6+ IP in every start, allowing more than 3 ER just 2x |
| 10 | Andrew Abbott | CIN v CHW | x | x | 24 | 2.25 | 1.17 | 19% | 27th | I’m not fully bought in on Abbott overall, but we gotta take advantage of the schedule here (OK running the 2-step w/CLE on the wknd, too) | |
| 11 | Ben Brown | CHC v MIA | x | x | 36 | 4.95 | 1.65 | 17% | 22nd | 1st of B2B starts v. MIA, though next wk’s comes w/an at CIN attached on the end | |
| 12 | Robbie Ray | SFG v ARI | x | x | 44 | 2.84 | 1.20 | 13% | 11th | Old school Ray is back with nasty stuff that’s hard to hit, but also hard to control… he’ll go as far as his HR suppression takes him; at 1.0 HR9 he can maintain a good ERA, but if it creeps up, his mid-4.00s ERA indicators become prescient | |
| 13 | José Berríos | TOR v TBR | x | x | 46 | 3.86 | 1.41 | 12% | 16th | A standard streamer in 10s & lower and team streamers in 12s or deeper | |
| 14 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI at SFG | x | x | 46 | 3.28 | 1.22 | 16% | 18th | A team streamer everywhere, he’s startable but here but then his 2-step next wk kicks off at LAD :grimace: | |
| 15 | Shane Baz | TBR at TOR | x | 38 | 4.93 | 1.33 | 16% | 24th | Absolutely brutal 3 of his L4, but then the 4th was 7 IP/0 ER at SDP showcasing his upside; not the worst risk, just know there is a sharp downside | ||
| 16 | Michael Soroka | WSN at ATL | x | 10 | 7.20 | 1.30 | 19% | 15th | 5 scoreless w/8 Ks v. CLE before a 4-run 6th inning; those runs counts but I do think those one-bad-inning outings can be indicative of a pitcher being close to clicking in, espec. a guy off the IL; risky 2-step, but I’m open to it in deep lgs & maybe even some medium lg YOLO throws | ||
| 17 | Keider Montero | DET v BOS | x | 21 | 4.15 | 1.48 | 5% | 11th | There’s a good bit of risk here, but with Holton starting ahead of him, it’s not a bad throw for a pure Win chase | ||
| 18 | Landon Knack | LAD v ATH | x | 13 | 4.61 | 1.46 | 8% | 13th | No opener, but another pure Win chase if you’ve got use for that | ||
| 19 | Jack Leiter | TEX v COL | x | 23 | 5.09 | 1.30 | 7% | 28th | Remember that an “x” doesn’t mean must start in a partiular format, but any mildly competent arm has some appeal v. COL, especially when it’s not in Coors | ||
| 20 | José Soriano | LAA at SDP | 45 | 4.00 | 1.53 | 9% | 5th | I like TEMU Dustin May as an idea and it’s fun to watch him blast off 100-mph sinkers, but even May’s fantasy appeal is limited and he has a great shot to win each of his starts, Soriano doesn’t even that; hold for at ATH/v. MIA 2-step next wk | |||
| 21 | Kyle Freeland | COL at TEX | 39 | 6.41 | 1.65 | 13% | 20th | Not a terrible matchup and it is outside of Coors, but how much upside is there? Dollander found his footing & went off, but he brings a K upside Freeland just doesn’t have so you’re chasing 5-6 decent IP of work w/very little W upside | |||
| 22 | Mitch Keller | PIT at NYM | 45 | 4.40 | 1.40 | 10% | 6th | Better of late since the 7 ER dud v. NYY (3.57 ERA/1.28 WHIP in L6), but I’m still inclined to skip this and reconsider his 2-step of CIN/MIL next wk | |||
| 23 | Logan Allen | CLE v MIL | 35 | 4.33 | 1.67 | 4% | 21st | It’s about the volatility range w/skillsets like this and his Game Scores (50 is avg.) highlight the up & down nature: 34, 56, 69, 59, 16, 49, 35 | |||
| 24 | Brayan Bello | BOS at DET | 22 | 2.01 | 1.34 | 1% | 12th | Don’t be fooled by this ERA, it’s being propped up by a 97% LOB rate and .234 BABIP; a 1% K-BB is impossibly bad and w/out sharp improvements, there’s a substantial fall-off coming | |||
| 25 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN at BAL | 33 | 4.01 | 1.43 | 13% | 9th | Low W upside bc while MIN is playing much better of late, he’s averaging sub-5 IP per start | |||
| 26 | Cade Povich | BAL v MIN | 35 | 5.55 | 1.54 | 11% | 18th | Just not enough juice to go for it here, even for the 2-step bc he doesn’t miss a ton of bats; he’ll remain on my radar in case things turn, but I’m out on him until he strings a few together w/some skill improvement | |||
| 27 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH at LAD | 39 | 4.81 | 1.42 | 7% | 2nd | Has just a 15% K and 3% K-BB in 7 starts since his Opening Day gem of 6 scoreless w/9 Ks and 1 BB | |||
| 28 | Quinn Priester | MIL at CLE | 28 | 5.08 | 1.66 | 1% | 17th | ||||
| 29 | Jonathan Cannon | CHW at CIN | 44 | 4.09 | 1.45 | 8% | 14th | ||||
| 30 | Valente Bellozo | MIA at CHC | 18 | 3.50 | 1.33 | 5% | 8th |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
2-START CHART
2-Start Chart for the Week of May 12th
| RANK | PITCHER | TYPE | MATCHUPS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | Pitch+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael King | 1 | LAA/SEA | 44.2 | 2.22 | 0.99 | 19% | 104 |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | 1 | at NYM/at PHI | 48.2 | 2.77 | 0.95 | 18% | 105 |
| 3 | Max Fried | 1 | at SEA/NYM | 51.2 | 1.05 | 0.91 | 17% | 102 |
| 4 | Cristopher Sánchez | 1 | STL/PIT | 37.1 | 2.89 | 1.23 | 19% | 98 |
| 5 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 2 | WAS/at BOS | 47.1 | 3.61 | 1.12 | 18% | 108 |
| 6 | Tyler Mahle | 2 | COL/HOU | 42.2 | 1.48 | 0.98 | 10% | 113 |
| 7 | Matthew Liberatore | 2 | at PHI/at KCR | 41 | 3.07 | 0.95 | 20% | 108 |
| 8 | Ryan Gusto | 3 | KCR/at TEX | 27.2 | 2.93 | 1.27 | 18% | 97 |
| 9 | Shane Baz | 3 | at TOR/at MIA | 38.1 | 4.93 | 1.33 | 16% | 100 |
| 10 | Colin Rea | 3 | MIA/CWS | 29.2 | 2.43 | 1.21 | 15% | 100 |
| 11 | Michael Wacha | 3 | at HOU/STL | 45.1 | 2.98 | 1.15 | 11% | 101 |
| 12 | Merrill Kelly | 3 | at SFG/COL | 44 | 4.09 | 1.05 | 12% | 107 |
| 13 | Clarke Schmidt | 3 | at SEA/NYM | 20.2 | 4.79 | 1.40 | 10% | 100 |
| 14 | David Peterson | 3 | PIT/at NYY | 38.1 | 3.52 | 1.38 | 14% | 103 |
| 15 | José Berríos | 3 | TBR/DET | 46.2 | 3.86 | 1.41 | 12% | 95 |
| 16 | Andrew Abbott | 4 | CHW/CLE | 24 | 2.25 | 1.17 | 19% | 93 |
| 17 | Grant Holmes | 4 | WAS/at BOS | 39.1 | 4.58 | 1.25 | 12% | 100 |
| 18 | Michael Soroka | 4 | at ATL/at BAL | 10 | 7.20 | 1.30 | 19% | 103 |
| 19 | Justin Verlander | 4 | ARI/ATH | 42 | 4.50 | 1.31 | 11% | 96 |
| 20 | Tanner Houck | 4 | at DET/ATL | 41.1 | 6.10 | 1.50 | 10% | 105 |
| 21 | Jake Irvin | 4 | at ATL/at BAL | 48 | 3.94 | 1.15 | 10% | 105 |
| 22 | Emerson Hancock | 4 | NYY/at SDP | 23.2 | 5.70 | 1.56 | 10% | 102 |
| 23 | Yusei Kikuchi | 4 | at SDP/at LAD | 42.1 | 3.83 | 1.46 | 10% | 107 |
| 24 | Jackson Jobe | 4 | BOS/at TOR | 27.2 | 4.88 | 1.48 | 4% | 96 |
| 25 | Ben Lively | 5 | MIL/at CIN | 41.2 | 3.46 | 1.20 | 9% | 105 |
| 26 | Cade Povich | 5 | MIN/WAS | 35.2 | 5.55 | 1.54 | 11% | 105 |
| 27 | Simeon Woods Richardson | 5 | at BAL/at MIL | 33.2 | 4.01 | 1.43 | 13% | 99 |
| 28 | Jack Leiter | 5 | COL/HOU | 23 | 5.09 | 1.30 | 7% | 89 |
| 29 | Jeffrey Springs | 5 | at LAD/at SFG | 39.1 | 4.81 | 1.42 | 7% | 96 |
| 30 | Chase Dollander | 6 | at TEX/at ARI | 28 | 7.71 | 1.64 | 9% | 90 |
| 31 | Jonathan Cannon | 6 | at CIN/at CHC | 44 | 4.09 | 1.45 | 8% | 102 |
| 32 | Cal Quantrill | 6 | at CHC/TBR | 31.2 | 7.11 | 1.67 | 8% | 100 |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
TYPE Key:
1 – Auto-Start | 2 – All Formats | 3 – Most Formats |
4 – Some Formats | 5 – YOLO | 6 – Hard Pass
Pfaadt and his 3.28 ERA/3.73 SIERA is just a streamer, but his next week kicks off against LAD where he :checks notes: just blanked them over 6.1 with 6 Ks.
Oh, ok.
And you automatically think he’ll do it again??
No, of course not. But I think that outing, and his pitching this year, has proven him to be more than a streamer. And if you’re in a weekly, that start looks less daunting if you think he can be “serviceable” v. LAD if you really want that second start.
You’re ignoring the glaring 5.56 xERA (4th worst among qualified pitchers). A big part of that is that he’s given up the 3rd highest hard hit rate among qualified pitchers. He also just got pummeled by the Phillies the outing before that. Using a player’s last start against a team to determine how they’ll do next time is a bad projection system.
You ignore SIERA I used (and his xFIP) and cherry-picked xERA lmaaaoooo
And I did not use the last start and make any determination on how he’d do next time. Strawman arguments are no arguments at all.