Starting Pitcher Chart – March 31st
In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it! Why didn’t I have one for Opening Day? Mostly because everyone on Opening Day is an easy start. Honestly, there aren’t a ton of tough decisions in these first few days, but I still want to get into the routine of doing it so we’ll start with Friday’s light slate (the lighter slate on Day 2 of the season is to protect against potential rain/snow outs on Opening Day in the colder weather environments).
Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. At the outset, I will put their 2022 stats along with the note. The opponent wOBA will remain blank – or rather just not be included in the chart – for a while until we get some data (7-10 days at least) and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. These are for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can mentally widen the range for H2H formats.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | LAST YEAR | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier | HOU | CWS | R | x | x | x | 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 24% K-BB | Incredible breakout season has him looking like a discount Strider this yr |
| Lance Lynn | CWS | at HOU | R | x | x | x | 3.99 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 21% K-BB | Closed brilliantly & if healthy, should be a fringe ace or excellent SP2 |
| Jesús Luzardo | MIA | NYM | L | x | x | x | 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 21% K-BB | Still seeking first full season after career-high 100.3 IP last yr |
| David Peterson | NYM | at MIA | L | x | x | x | 3.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 17% K-BB | Looking to take advantage of early season opportunity |
| Robbie Ray | SEA | CLE | L | x | x | x | 3.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 19% K-BB | Held BB gains from Cy Young season, but HR troubles remained, too (1.5 HR9) |
| Dustin May | LAD | ARI | R | x | x | x | 4.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 12% K-BB | Not an easy matchup, but definitely starting him if I paid the draft price |
| Nick Martinez | SDP | COL | R | x | x | 3.47 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 12% K-BB | Getting another shot to start and I remain intrigued by his raw stuff | |
| Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | at LAD | R | 3.37 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 14% K-BB | LAD dropped 22 ER on him in 24 IP last yr, I’m sitting this one out | |||
| Kyle Freeland | COL | at SDP | L | 4.53 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 10% K-BB | Even out of Coors, I don’t see any real reason to take this risk at SDP | |||
| Hunter Gaddis | CLE | at SEA | R | 4.83 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 22% K-BB | Stats incl. MiLB #s; I’m watchlisting the McKenzie fill-in for now |
Seems like a heavy lift to do this every day but I hope you keep it up!
I should point out that it’ll be M-F. I’ll see if I can work something up for the weekends, but Fridays are pretty busy.