Starting Pitcher Chart – June 9th

June 9, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Sorry for the major Friday delays. Fell asleep early last night and then was super busy this morning with the pod & a pair of meetings.

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Friday, June 9th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Shohei Ohtani	LAA		SEA	x	x	x	71	3.30	1.01	24%	25th	A couple bumpy starts lately (5 ER at BAL, at HOU), but still plenty viable as a pitcher if your hitting is rolling
2	Cristian Javier	HOU	at	CLE	x	x	x	69.2	2.84	0.99	21%	21st	Quietly having a wonderful follow up to last year’s incredible season
3	Gerrit Cole	NYY		BOS	x	x	x	79.2	2.82	1.13	17%	22nd	6 pt K rate drop hasn’t really hurt the overall results w/strong ratios and 7 Ws
4	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI	at	DET	x	x	x	70.2	2.80	1.08	18%	30th	Beautiful matchup for Kelly to stay hot
5	Marcus Stroman	CHC	at	SFG	x	x	x	79	2.39	1.00	13%	15th	Has allowed just 3 ER in 4 starts after getting dumped for 6 ER at MIN on May 14th
6	Luis Castillo	SEA	at	LAA	x	x	x	70.2	2.55	0.98	24%	7th	Only studs v. LAA and Castillo absolutely qualifies
7	Dylan Cease	CHW		MIA	x	x	x	68	4.63	1.37	14%	4th	Starts v. DET & KC are his biggest bumps lately and even the 3.25 ERA in his L5 is tamped down a bit by the 4.19 FIP… can’t envision sitting him, but he’s not ’22 Cease
8	Tyler Glasnow	TBR		TEX	x	x	x	9.2	3.72	1.34	24%	1st	Seems unfair that TBR played that well to this point and then get to add Glasnow to the mix… tough matchup but he’s an Auto-Start for me
9	Yu Darvish	SDP		COL	x	x	x	63.2	4.10	1.12	19%	5th	NYY thrashing (7 ER) raised his ERA nearly a full run but another gem like his 7 IP/0 ER last time out could get him back into the mid-3.00s
10	Sonny Gray	MIN	at	TOR	x	x	x	67	2.15	1.22	17%	2nd	Gray is an Auto-Start for me with how well he’s been pitching, even in a tough matchup like this
11	Tyler Wells	BAL		KCR	x	x	x	68.1	3.29	0.85	21%	24th	Strong matchup, but HR issues like his (1.8) can sink any start if the ball is flying
12	Eury Pérez	MIA	at	CHW	x	x	x	24	2.25	1.17	13%	28th	BB are a bit high (11%) but otherwise he is living up to immense hype as a rookie arm
13	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG		CHC	x	x	x	70.1	3.97	1.12	13%	27th	Good spot for Tony Disco who has been a bit rough over his L6 (6.12 ERA, but also a 4.30 FIP)
14	Logan Allen	CLE		HOU	x	x	x	45.2	2.76	1.34	17%	13th	Ugly WHIP is putting him on some shallow lg waiver wires, but I remain bought in as at least a reserve
15	Adrian Houser	MIL		OAK	x	x	x	31.1	3.45	1.44	9%	29th	OAK can make anyone somewhat appealing and while they did cause some trouble in PIT, I’m still streaming against them pretty much any time I can
16	Rich Hill	PIT		NYM		x	x	65.1	4.41	1.38	14%	16th	Last 4 starts highlight the variance you’re dealing with here: 0, 5, 6, 1 ER… good luck!
17	Michael Lorenzen	DET		ARI		x	x	53.1	3.21	0.99	14%	14th	Riding the hot hand here as Lorenzen is cooking lately: 1.83 ERA, 0.76 WHIP in L6, but a 12% K-BB & 3.49 FIP keep expectations in check
18	Garrett Whitlock	BOS	at	NYY			x	25.2	5.61	1.29	14%	9th	An uneven start w/2 gems, a mediocre outing, and 2 duds… just a standard streamer right now
19	Josiah Gray	WSN	at	ATL			x	67	3.09	1.42	8%	3rd	That WHIP is a bit unruly to be taking on this kind of matchup blindly… I’m OK taking the shot in spots, but he’s far from a must-start here
20	Jordan Montgomery	STL		CIN			x	66	4.23	1.39	15%	5th	The high WHIP gives me pause especially v. CIN which has the makings of an explosive summer offense
21	Andrew Heaney	TEX	at	TBR			x	58	4.03	1.26	14%	2nd	It’s a big gamble but I don’t hate it in some spots, just know that there’s major downside given his HR issues
22	Michael Grove	LAD		PHI			x	21	8.14	1.52	15%	19th	That 9 ER bomb will infect his bottom line ERA for a while, he has a palatable 4.61 ERA in 3 starts since then (deep lg palatable)
23	Daniel Lynch	KCR	at	BAL			x	10.1	4.35	1.45	19%	24th	A couple decent starts to open his MLB sesaon as well as a 20% K-BB in 18 AAA IP; small sample caveats apply, but I don’t hate this spot for a stream
24	Tylor Megill	NYM	at	PIT			x	59.1	4.40	1.62	6%	16th	A lottery ticket streamer in good matchups at best, he just hasn’t shown the skills we saw early last yr
25	Ben Lively 라이블리	CIN	at	STL				29.2	3.03	1.01	18%	10th	Allowed 5 ER last time out, but it was impressive for him to last 7 IP after allowing 3 ER in the 1st; nice 20% K-BB in his 4 starts so he is on my radar, just not looking to use him here
26	Jared Shuster	ATL		WSN				30.2	4.99	1.34	2%	7th	Looks sharp since returning to the majors: 3.68 ERA/.91 WHIP in 22 IP, though just a 7% K-BB… be careful
27	Ranger Suárez	PHI		LAD				24.2	5.47	1.54	11%	1st	While LAD isn’t crushing lefties of late, this still isn’t worth the risk as Suárez has been just OK this yr
28	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR		MIN				61.1	4.40	1.37	15%	17th	MIN has .150 ISO vL (19th) but Kikuchi’s 2.5 HR rate can turn any team into a power one… so I’m nervous to ever run him
29	Luis Medina	OAK	at	MIL				29.2	8.19	1.62	9%	26th	Just far too inconsistent
30	Austin Gomber	COL		SDP				56.2	6.99	1.64	5%	26th	Never Gomber

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues