Starting Pitcher Chart – June 8th

June 8, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Thursday, June 8th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Spencer Strider	ATL		NYM	x	x	x	69.2	2.97	1.00	31%	19th	I look forward to every Strider start!
2	Zack Wheeler	PHI		DET	x	x	x	68.2	4.33	1.21	21%	30th	Nola dropped 7 innings of 1-hit ball w/12 Ks on DET, Wheeler could do something similar to get back on track
3	Framber Valdez	HOU	at	TOR	x	x	x	79	2.16	1.03	22%	30th	Velo up nearly 2 mph and BB rate down 3 pts to 5% making him an early Cy Young candidate
4	Tyler Glasnow	TBR		MIN	x	x	x	9.2	3.72	1.34	24%	13th	Seems unfair that TBR played that well to this point and then get to add Glasnow to the mix
5	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	at	CIN	x	x	x	69.1	3.25	1.10	24%	3rd	Trips to CIN are scary w/the youth movement in full effect, but obviously we’re not sitting Kersh anywhere ever
6	Reid Detmers	LAA		CHC	x	x	x	50.2	5.15	1.54	17%	9th	I realize he has a 5.90 ERA in his L6 starts, but he also has a 2.77 FIP in that run and I’m just not going to sit him based on a .410 BABIP haunting him
7	Luis Severino	NYY		CHW	x	x	x	15.1	5.28	1.24	11%	29th	Can give him some leeway for getting merked by LAD, but his velo was down 3 mph so while I am starting him, another low-velo outing will raise some concern
8	Justin Verlander	NYM	at	ATL	x	x	x	36	4.25	1.14	14%	9th	Single-digit SwStr rates in his L4, though that includes TBR, TOR, and at COL… I’m not too worried as he is still ramping up after starting on the IL
9	Kyle Bradish	BAL	at	MIL	x	x	x	48	4.13	1.35	13%	25th	His 7 ER v. BOS is still weighing down his season ERA, but he has a 3.55 in 38 IP since that game (15% K-BB, 1.18 WHIP in that time, too)
10	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI	at	WSN	x	x	x	70.2	2.80	1.08	18%	11th	He’s not quite as good as this ERA, but still an all-formats guy even if you aren’t starting him every time out
11	José Berríos	TOR		HOU	x	x	x	71.1	3.66	1.25	16%	5th	Core skills don’t quite support his sparkling 2.17 ERA on the last 37 IP with just a 12% K-BB, but treat him as a high-3.00s/low-4.00s guy and you should be fine
12	Bailey Ober	MIN	at	TBR		x	x	46.1	2.33	0.97	16%	15th	That 5% HR/FB will almost certainly regress, but he has skills to remain viable even w/a more normalized HR rate; don’t blame anyone sitting v. TBR
13	Josiah Gray	WSN		ARI		x	x	67	3.09	1.42	8%	12th	3 HR in his last 2 starts after allowing 2 in his previous 9 before that… still starting him in a lot of spots, but keeping a close eye on the HRs
14	Aaron Civale	CLE		BOS		x	x	17.2	2.04	1.08	11%	22nd	Dropped 5 scoreless IP in his IL return and while I think BOS is better than their L30 ranking, I’m still down to start Civale in some spots
15	Drew Smyly	CHC	at	LAA			x	65.2	3.56	1.11	15%	14th	Still rostering him everywhere, but I have no issue skipping starts v. LAA with any non-ace
16	Mike Clevinger	CHW	at	NYY			x	52.1	4.13	1.39	10%	8th	Does have a 3.54 ERA and 16% K-BB in his L5, but w/out the swing-and-miss of yesteryear, he’s a longshot gamble at best
17	Alex Cobb	SFG	at	COL			x	69.2	2.71	1.32	16%	3rd	Love Cobb, but he’s a tough run in Coors
18	Randy Vásquez	NYY		CHW			x	4.2	3.86	1.50	13%	29th	Too many BB to be super trustworthy, but this isn’t the worst spot to gamble on him given how poorly CHW has hit lately
19	Colin Rea	MIL		BAL				47.1	4.94	1.27	11%	20th	Hasn’t really been bad (no more than 4 ER in any of his 9 GS), but the meager 11% K-BB & 1.7 HR makes him tough to trust
20	Lance Lynn	CHW	at	NYY				67.1	6.55	1.51	17%	8th	Was rolling with a 1.89 ERA in 3 GS before erasing all of it w/8 ER v. LAA; just entirely too hard to trust right now
21	Graham Ashcraft	CIN		LAD				62.1	6.64	1.60	7%	14th	Why is he SO bad?
22	Chase Anderson	COL		SFG				26.2	1.69	0.94	6%	16th	No
23	Matt Dermody	BOS	at	CLE				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	21st	32 yr old journeyman did have a 20% K-BB in MiLB, but also a 10.2 H hit rate and 4.50 ERA in the 44 IP of work
24	Tyler Holton	DET	at	PHI				31	2.32	0.94	12%	20th	Probably just an opener w/no more than 3 IP in a single outing this yr

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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Hewitt

1 year ago

Paul, Logan Allen was mysteriously dropped in my 12-team mixed despite the sterling ERA and strong K/BB. The estimators are all much higher (3.78 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA, 4.30 xERA) as hard contact is an issue and maybe he’s been lucky on the HR/FB thus far (8.2%), although with a high babip as well (.331). Still, seems like a rosterable guy. The next best guys on my wire are Bello, Houck and Varland. Is he measurably better than those guys? How much FAAB? Abbott just went for $13 in our league and I’m not usually high on rookie pitchers, but Allen has at least been doing it for 50 IP.

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to Hewitt

I prefer him most of that group but w/those other 3 there, I wouldn’t go crazy on Allen price-wise bc the backups are suitable. Definitely go for Allen, but don’t be bummed if you get “stuck” w/one of the others