Starting Pitcher Chart – June 7th
by Paul Sporer
June 7, 2023
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Starting Pitcher Chart – June 7th
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Webb | SFG | at | COL | x | x | x | 79 | 2.85 | 1.04 | 0.217 | 5th | Allowed 4 ER in 4 straight to open the yr before reeling off a 1.95 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 20% K-BB in 55.3 IP and I’m willing to roll w/him in Coors |
| 2 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | BOS | x | x | x | 39.1 | 3.2 | 1.12 | 0.189 | 22nd | This is still a tough matchup even w/BOS in a bit of a cold snap lately, but I’m not sitting Bibee anywhere right now | |
| 3 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | DET | x | x | x | 68.2 | 4.33 | 1.21 | 0.214 | 28th | Nola dropped 7 innings of 1-hit ball w/12 Ks on DET, Wheeler could do something similar to get back on track | |
| 4 | Max Scherzer | NYM | at | ATL | x | x | x | 47.2 | 3.21 | 1.09 | 0.179 | 18th | Quietly decimating the league since his BS suspension: 1.08 ERA/0.80 WHIP w/a 26% K-BB in 25 IP |
| 5 | George Kirby | SEA | at | SDP | x | x | x | 71 | 3.04 | 1.01 | 0.186 | 24th | Facing Gilbert/Kirby back-to-back can’t be fun! |
| 6 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | BAL | x | x | x | 69.2 | 3.75 | 1.18 | 0.131 | 20th | B2B QS and 6 out of 7, good for a 3.21 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 15% K-BB in 42 IP | |
| 7 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | KCR | x | x | x | 58 | 4.5 | 1.43 | 0.157 | 21st | Has his BB rate down to 7% over his L4 and unsurprisingly results have follow w/a 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP — who leaves the rotation when Rogers returns? | |
| 8 | Kutter Crawford | BOS | at | CLE | x | x | x | 30.2 | 3.52 | 0.98 | 0.195 | 29th | Intriguing arm with impressive stats getting his crack in the rotation, he’s viable in all formats |
| 9 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | HOU | x | x | x | 74 | 3.41 | 1.07 | 0.129 | 4th | Bounced right back from his 7 ER dud with a total gem (0 ER, 8 Ks in 7.7 IP) | |
| 10 | Jon Gray | TEX | STL | x | x | x | 64.2 | 2.51 | 1.04 | 0.122 | 8th | Absolutely cooking of late: 0.79 ERA/0.71 WHIP in last 34 IP w/a 21% K-BB | |
| 11 | Roansy Contreras | PIT | OAK | x | x | x | 56 | 4.82 | 1.41 | 0.08 | 30th | Hasn’t had the breakout we hoped for when tabbing him as a sleeper, but obviously have to roll w/him v. OAK | |
| 12 | Charlie Morton | ATL | NYM | x | x | 64.2 | 3.62 | 1.44 | 0.161 | 19th | Awful WHIP, but he has done enough to be a Top 50 SP w/his ERA, Ks, and Ws | ||
| 13 | Jaime Barría | LAA | CHC | x | x | 34 | 1.59 | 1 | 0.169 | 26th | A 3rd straight strong start would raise his profile beyond deep leagues | ||
| 14 | Michael Wacha | SDP | SEA | x | x | 62 | 3.48 | 1.15 | 0.15 | 23rd | Was his last outing the end of his hot run? 5 BB after having 5 BB in his previous 4 GS combined… still just a streamer, not a set-it & forget-it | ||
| 15 | Dean Kremer | BAL | at | MIL | x | x | 65 | 4.43 | 1.42 | 0.127 | 25th | Running hot lately (2.55 ERA in L6), but skills are still just OK (13% K-BB) so I’m not sure even another good outing secures his spot v. TOR & at CHC next wk | |
| 16 | Pablo López | MIN | at | TBR | x | 71.1 | 4.54 | 1.16 | 0.22 | 13th | Schedule likely played some role in recent struggles (6.95 ERA in L4) w/at LAD, at LAA, TOR, but easy CLE hit him for season-high 6 ER… I’m OK passing at the Rays | ||
| 17 | Reese Olson | DET | at | PHI | x | 5 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.263 | 15th | He doesn’t have the control to be heavily trusted right away, but I’d at least reserve him in a lot formats as he has real upside | ||
| 18 | Hogan Harris | OAK | at | PIT | x | 10.1 | 6.97 | 1.26 | 0.093 | 24th | Will be working off 0.3 IP/6 ER season opener for a while & it obscures his B2B 5 IP outings since (10 Ks, 1 BB)… lottery ticket streamer | ||
| 19 | Randy Vásquez | NYY | CHW | x | 4.2 | 3.86 | 1.5 | 0.13 | 27th | His walks will likely get him in trouble sonner than later, I’m not super confident here | |||
| 20 | Lance Lynn | CHW | at | NYY | 67.1 | 6.55 | 1.51 | 0.165 | 6th | He is firmly in the cut zone at this point… it’s always 1 step forward, 2 steps back and a 17% K-BB can’t sustain a 2.0 HR | |||
| 21 | Cooper Criswell | TBR | MIN | 15.1 | 6.46 | 1.63 | 0.155 | 11th | Will this be their latest RP-to-SP conversion? Probably not, but I’ve learned not to doubt TB out of hand… I’ll keep an eye on him | ||||
| 22 | Jack Flaherty | STL | at | TEX | 63.1 | 4.55 | 1.52 | 0.105 | 2nd | Not nearly consistent enough to trust in TEX | |||
| 23 | Patrick Corbin | WSN | ARI | 67.2 | 4.92 | 1.48 | 0.08 | 16th | His window passed w/8 BB and 9 ER in his last 2 starts | ||||
| 24 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | at | LAA | 37 | 7.05 | 1.51 | 0.144 | 7th | Unlikely the matchup for him to get right | |||
| 25 | Brandon Williamson | CIN | LAD | 21 | 4.29 | 1.33 | 0.077 | 1st | No shot | ||||
| 26 | Jordan Lyles | KCR | at | MIA | 66.2 | 6.89 | 1.32 | 0.1 | 9th | Sparkling statline in his last outing (5 IP/1 ER/8 Ks) isn’t enough to make him startable | |||
| 27 | Ronel Blanco | HOU | at | TOR | 17.1 | 4.15 | 1.9 | 0.129 | 1st | Not the matchup to get cute | |||
| 28 | Noah Syndergaard | LAD | at | CIN | 52.1 | 6.54 | 1.39 | 0.114 | 14th | Can’t take him into Coors Lite | |||
| 29 | Connor Seabold | COL | SFG | 41.2 | 5.4 | 1.51 | 0.088 | 17th | Only aces in Coors | ||||
| 30 | Zach Davies | ARI | at | WSN | 18.1 | 5.4 | 1.64 | 0.061 | 3rd | No thanks |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
you did not under any circumstances have to roll with Roansy
I picked him up based on the recommendation in this chart. I really hope that start doesn’t cost me the week in a close matchup.
Devastating outing. Process v. results… home start v. OAK is an easy stream, he just melted against ’em
Hard to say he melted when he didn’t give up a single hard hit ball (95+ mph). He got 6 swings and misses on 38 pitches (15.8% SwStr%), had a perfectly good 32% CSW and an average EV of 79.8 mph. His velo was slightly up from his yearlong average as were his spin numbers so it’s not like he came out flat.
Heck the last 2 hits were a weak 66.7 mph line drive (LA 17* , dist 124 ft) and a 54.9 mph swinging bunt (LA -76*). The double he gave up to Jace Peterson was an 86 mph grounder with a .220 xBA.
If all I told you was a guy went 15.8% SwStr, 32% CSW and 79.7 mph EV, you’d guess the guy went 7 strong IP with 9 K and a couple knocks.
Pretty unlucky start frankly.
Great breakdown! The results certainly melted your week, but totally fair to give this additional context regarding this start especially since many are going to cut Contreras from it.
That’s what happens when you scout the statline instead of watching the game. He was hanging everything in the zone and making noncompetitive pitches out of it, constantly behind in the count. He got a few whiffs towards the end when it was already a disaster but only Langeliers went down swinging.
Of course, there’s always limitations on boxscore scouting. Can’t watch every game, though!
It’s a pretty major outlier for a line like this not to be self-inflicted, but I greatly appreciate the context when I’m not able to deep-dive a line and learn that it wasn’t as bad (or as good in other cases) as the raw boxscore suggests
Well, let’s see::
So I’m not really seeing what you’re seeing. He threw 1st pitch strikes to 7 of 9 hitters and had 1-2 or 0-2 counts on 4 of the 9 hitters (with 4 other hitters putting the ball in play in the 1st 3 pitches). Depending on how you define middle/middle, he threw maybe 3 pitches that were right down Broadway.
Now, he did walk 2 guys and from what I read could have made a play himself on the last hit so he definitely didn’t help himself out in that regard.
You can say “you didn’t watch the game” and that’s totally fair. but I can say “you didn’t really look at the numbers”.
He did not pitch as badly as the result, he just didn’t. If he gets the 3-2 call on Noda to start the game and a couple of those weak to medium hit batted balls find gloves rather than grass, then maybe he’s out of it with little or maybe even no damage.
This was a long ways from something like Manoah the other day when he had a 7.9% SwStr, 21% CSW and while he had a decent 89.0 mph EV, that belied the fact that he gave up 5 batted balls between 98 and 103 mph (he actually started the game with a couple weak batted balls that went for hits before it all came unraveled). Hell, his only out was a 98mph, 374 ft fly ball. He was fooling nobody.
LOL, true… always easier to say when you have the results in hand, though!