Starting Pitcher Chart – June 7th

by
June 7, 2023
Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Starting Pitcher Chart – June 7th
RK PITCHER TM OPP 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB wOBA RK NOTE
1 Logan Webb SFG at COL x x x 79 2.85 1.04 0.217 5th Allowed 4 ER in 4 straight to open the yr before reeling off a 1.95 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 20% K-BB in 55.3 IP and I’m willing to roll w/him in Coors
2 Tanner Bibee CLE BOS x x x 39.1 3.2 1.12 0.189 22nd This is still a tough matchup even w/BOS in a bit of a cold snap lately, but I’m not sitting Bibee anywhere right now
3 Zack Wheeler PHI DET x x x 68.2 4.33 1.21 0.214 28th Nola dropped 7 innings of 1-hit ball w/12 Ks on DET, Wheeler could do something similar to get back on track
4 Max Scherzer NYM at ATL x x x 47.2 3.21 1.09 0.179 18th Quietly decimating the league since his BS suspension: 1.08 ERA/0.80 WHIP w/a 26% K-BB in 25 IP
5 George Kirby SEA at SDP x x x 71 3.04 1.01 0.186 24th Facing Gilbert/Kirby back-to-back can’t be fun!
6 Corbin Burnes MIL BAL x x x 69.2 3.75 1.18 0.131 20th B2B QS and 6 out of 7, good for a 3.21 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 15% K-BB in 42 IP
7 Edward Cabrera MIA KCR x x x 58 4.5 1.43 0.157 21st Has his BB rate down to 7% over his L4 and unsurprisingly results have follow w/a 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP — who leaves the rotation when Rogers returns?
8 Kutter Crawford BOS at CLE x x x 30.2 3.52 0.98 0.195 29th Intriguing arm with impressive stats getting his crack in the rotation, he’s viable in all formats
9 Chris Bassitt TOR HOU x x x 74 3.41 1.07 0.129 4th Bounced right back from his 7 ER dud with a total gem (0 ER, 8 Ks in 7.7 IP)
10 Jon Gray TEX STL x x x 64.2 2.51 1.04 0.122 8th Absolutely cooking of late: 0.79 ERA/0.71 WHIP in last 34 IP w/a 21% K-BB
11 Roansy Contreras PIT OAK x x x 56 4.82 1.41 0.08 30th Hasn’t had the breakout we hoped for when tabbing him as a sleeper, but obviously have to roll w/him v. OAK
12 Charlie Morton ATL NYM x x 64.2 3.62 1.44 0.161 19th Awful WHIP, but he has done enough to be a Top 50 SP w/his ERA, Ks, and Ws
13 Jaime Barría LAA CHC x x 34 1.59 1 0.169 26th A 3rd straight strong start would raise his profile beyond deep leagues
14 Michael Wacha SDP SEA x x 62 3.48 1.15 0.15 23rd Was his last outing the end of his hot run? 5 BB after having 5 BB in his previous 4 GS combined… still just a streamer, not a set-it & forget-it
15 Dean Kremer BAL at MIL x x 65 4.43 1.42 0.127 25th Running hot lately (2.55 ERA in L6), but skills are still just OK (13% K-BB) so I’m not sure even another good outing secures his spot v. TOR & at CHC next wk
16 Pablo López MIN at TBR x 71.1 4.54 1.16 0.22 13th Schedule likely played some role in recent struggles (6.95 ERA in L4) w/at LAD, at LAA, TOR, but easy CLE hit him for season-high 6 ER… I’m OK passing at the Rays
17 Reese Olson DET at PHI x 5 3.6 0.6 0.263 15th He doesn’t have the control to be heavily trusted right away, but I’d at least reserve him in a lot formats as he has real upside
18 Hogan Harris OAK at PIT x 10.1 6.97 1.26 0.093 24th Will be working off 0.3 IP/6 ER season opener for a while & it obscures his B2B 5 IP outings since (10 Ks, 1 BB)… lottery ticket streamer
19 Randy Vásquez NYY CHW x 4.2 3.86 1.5 0.13 27th His walks will likely get him in trouble sonner than later, I’m not super confident here
20 Lance Lynn CHW at NYY 67.1 6.55 1.51 0.165 6th He is firmly in the cut zone at this point… it’s always 1 step forward, 2 steps back and a 17% K-BB can’t sustain a 2.0 HR
21 Cooper Criswell TBR MIN 15.1 6.46 1.63 0.155 11th Will this be their latest RP-to-SP conversion? Probably not, but I’ve learned not to doubt TB out of hand… I’ll keep an eye on him
22 Jack Flaherty STL at TEX 63.1 4.55 1.52 0.105 2nd Not nearly consistent enough to trust in TEX
23 Patrick Corbin WSN ARI 67.2 4.92 1.48 0.08 16th His window passed w/8 BB and 9 ER in his last 2 starts
24 Jameson Taillon CHC at LAA 37 7.05 1.51 0.144 7th Unlikely the matchup for him to get right
25 Brandon Williamson CIN LAD 21 4.29 1.33 0.077 1st No shot
26 Jordan Lyles KCR at MIA 66.2 6.89 1.32 0.1 9th Sparkling statline in his last outing (5 IP/1 ER/8 Ks) isn’t enough to make him startable
27 Ronel Blanco HOU at TOR 17.1 4.15 1.9 0.129 1st Not the matchup to get cute
28 Noah Syndergaard LAD at CIN 52.1 6.54 1.39 0.114 14th Can’t take him into Coors Lite
29 Connor Seabold COL SFG 41.2 5.4 1.51 0.088 17th Only aces in Coors
30 Zach Davies ARI at WSN 18.1 5.4 1.64 0.061 3rd No thanks
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

11 Comments
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O'Kieboomermember
10 months ago

you did not under any circumstances have to roll with Roansy

1
bluerum29
10 months ago
Reply to  O'Kieboomer

I picked him up based on the recommendation in this chart. I really hope that start doesn’t cost me the week in a close matchup.

1
Paul Sporermember
10 months ago
Reply to  bluerum29

Devastating outing. Process v. results… home start v. OAK is an easy stream, he just melted against ’em

0
Anon
10 months ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Hard to say he melted when he didn’t give up a single hard hit ball (95+ mph). He got 6 swings and misses on 38 pitches (15.8% SwStr%), had a perfectly good 32% CSW and an average EV of 79.8 mph. His velo was slightly up from his yearlong average as were his spin numbers so it’s not like he came out flat.

Heck the last 2 hits were a weak 66.7 mph line drive (LA 17* , dist 124 ft) and a 54.9 mph swinging bunt (LA -76*). The double he gave up to Jace Peterson was an 86 mph grounder with a .220 xBA.

If all I told you was a guy went 15.8% SwStr, 32% CSW and 79.7 mph EV, you’d guess the guy went 7 strong IP with 9 K and a couple knocks.

Pretty unlucky start frankly.

Last edited 10 months ago by Anon
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Paul Sporermember
10 months ago
Reply to  Anon

Great breakdown! The results certainly melted your week, but totally fair to give this additional context regarding this start especially since many are going to cut Contreras from it.

0
O'Kieboomermember
10 months ago
Reply to  Anon

That’s what happens when you scout the statline instead of watching the game. He was hanging everything in the zone and making noncompetitive pitches out of it, constantly behind in the count. He got a few whiffs towards the end when it was already a disaster but only Langeliers went down swinging.

0
Paul Sporermember
10 months ago
Reply to  O'Kieboomer

Of course, there’s always limitations on boxscore scouting. Can’t watch every game, though!

It’s a pretty major outlier for a line like this not to be self-inflicted, but I greatly appreciate the context when I’m not able to deep-dive a line and learn that it wasn’t as bad (or as good in other cases) as the raw boxscore suggests

0
Anon
10 months ago
Reply to  O'Kieboomer

Well, let’s see::

  • he gets ahead of Noda 0-2 to lead off the game and ends up losing him on a 3-2 pitch that Statcast shows as clipping the upper inside corner. Noda fouled off 2 pretty good pitches to get to 3-2
  • he gets ahead of Brown 0-2 and gives up a 93.3 mph liner to center on a pitch middle of the plate but up in the zone
  • Rooker hits an 86 mph liner on a pitch that was very well placed upper outside corner
  • he goes up 1-2 on laureano who fouls off a well placed 2-2 fastball to stay alive but loses him with 2 pretty bad pitches that miss considerably.
  • Peterson hits the 1st pitch – 86 mph grounder for a double off a pretty meaty pitch, middle and a little down but definitely more plate than you’d like to catch
  • Bride hits a 92 mph liner off a pitch that barely clipped the outside corner, about thigh high
  • Bleday hits a 1-0 changeup that caught way more of the plate than Contreras wanted. Not quite middle/middle, but not far off
  • He gets Langeliers swinging. Not a single pitch in this PA was anywhere near the middle of the plate. 3 well located pitches along the outside corner (one called a ball). Gets him on a tough slider on the outside edge just a hair above the knees.
  • He gets ahead of Smith 1-2, eventually goes 3-2 and gives up a 54.9 mph swinging bunt on a great slider that is about an inch off the plate that Smith has to swing at.

So I’m not really seeing what you’re seeing. He threw 1st pitch strikes to 7 of 9 hitters and had 1-2 or 0-2 counts on 4 of the 9 hitters (with 4 other hitters putting the ball in play in the 1st 3 pitches). Depending on how you define middle/middle, he threw maybe 3 pitches that were right down Broadway.

Now, he did walk 2 guys and from what I read could have made a play himself on the last hit so he definitely didn’t help himself out in that regard.

You can say “you didn’t watch the game” and that’s totally fair. but I can say “you didn’t really look at the numbers”.

He did not pitch as badly as the result, he just didn’t. If he gets the 3-2 call on Noda to start the game and a couple of those weak to medium hit batted balls find gloves rather than grass, then maybe he’s out of it with little or maybe even no damage.

This was a long ways from something like Manoah the other day when he had a 7.9% SwStr, 21% CSW and while he had a decent 89.0 mph EV, that belied the fact that he gave up 5 batted balls between 98 and 103 mph (he actually started the game with a couple weak batted balls that went for hits before it all came unraveled). Hell, his only out was a 98mph, 374 ft fly ball. He was fooling nobody.

3
Paul Sporermember
10 months ago
Reply to  O'Kieboomer

LOL, true… always easier to say when you have the results in hand, though!

0