Starting Pitcher Chart – June 23rd

June 23, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Starting Pitcher Chart – June 23rd

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Zach Eflin	TBR		KCR	x	x	x	77.1	3.26	1.00	21%	19th	Improved skills, heavier GB lean, and his lowest BABIP (.276) since 2016 has him in full breakout mode
2	Jesús Luzardo	MIA		PIT	x	x	x	83.2	4.09	1.25	21%	18th	Dud-gem-dud-gem-dud-gem over his L6, but as I’ve mentioned before, these patterns aren’t bankable so I’m not expecting a dud here… easy start for me
3	Logan Webb	SFG		ARI	x	x	x	98.1	3.11	1.11	20%	5th	Remember when he allowed 4 R in each of his first 4 starts? He’s ripped off 2.53 ERA in 74.7 IP since then with a 1.08 WHIP
4	Joe Musgrove	SDP		WSN	x	x	x	53.1	4.22	1.31	14%	14th	Ks are down 4 pts from last yr, but aside from the 7 ER in Mexico, he’s still been very good (3.24 ERA/1.26 WHIP in 9 starts)
5	Lucas Giolito	CHW		BOS	x	x	x	86.1	3.54	1.24	17%	13th	The 1.4 HR rate is worrisome but if the WHIP remains on the positive side of 1.25, they shouldn’t hurt him too much
6	Chris Bassitt	TOR		OAK	x	x	x	88.2	4.16	1.20	13%	28th	B2B duds might be more worrisome if the matchups weren’t legit (BAL/TEX); a struggle here would get my antennae up, but can’t pass up this matchup
7	Logan Gilbert	SEA	at	BAL	x	x	x	79.1	4.31	1.07	21%	10th	4 HR in 2 duds v. NYY & LAA over his L4 starts have pushed his ERA from 3.60 to 4.31; early K% surge has faded, too… still an easy start, just might not be better than ’22
8	Shane Bieber	CLE		MIL	x	x	x	95	3.51	1.22	11%	29th	Any 5 ER is essentially a dud, but going 7.3 IP really takes some of the sting out of it and he’s bounced back beautifully from his first 2 duds of the yr, too
9	Brayan Bello	BOS	at	CHW	x	x	x	59.1	3.49	1.30	14%	30th	Probably a decent number of fantasy mgrs kicking themselves for cutting him after 2 starts (9.82 ERA) as he’s reeled off a 2.60 ERA in 9 starts since then
10	Kodai Senga	NYM	at	PHI	x	x	x	71.1	3.53	1.33	15%	21st	Outings of 0 and 1 BB in his L4 offer a glimmer of hope for some control but 9 BB in 9.7 IP during the other 2 starts bring us back to Earth
11	Wade Miley	MIL	at	CLE	x	x	x	46.2	3.28	1.09	9%	7th	Miley is kind of an older Dunning for me where I tend to trust him on a level higher than his core skills suggests I should, but he’s just a solid deep lg arm (3.48 ERA since 2018)
12	Dane Dunning	TEX	at	NYY	x	x	x	64.2	2.78	1.19	8%	26th	Judge-less NYY is a much better spot to start medium or even some high risk arms
13	Kyle Gibson	BAL		SEA		x	x	89	3.94	1.27	10%	25th	Has not allowed more than 4 ER this yr and he’s only allowed 4 ER 2x this yr
14	Taijuan Walker	PHI		NYM		x	x	77.1	4.31	1.28	11%	22nd	Run after 4 ER in 40 pitches back on 5/17 but has been absolutely nails since then w/a 1.75 ERA in 36 IP, though the 3.66 FIP says it’s mostly just a hot streak
15	AJ Smith-Shawver	ATL	at	CIN			x	13.1	2.03	0.98	14%	8th	Finding his footing a bit in starts #2 and #3 in MLB, but I’m actively running away from CIN w/any non-studs
16	Emmet Sheehan	LAD		HOU			x	6	0.00	0.33	5%	18th	Survived his debut with 6 scoreless despite the 5% K-BB and while he wasn’t lights out, I’m down to take a chance v. HOU in 15s and even some 12s
17	Joey Wentz	DET		MIN			x	62	6.82	1.56	12%	25th	Great in his last start and pretty solid v. ARI (4.3 IP as a follower) but he has 6 duds in 14 starts so the downside is really severe
18	Kenta Maeda	MIN	at	DET				16	9.00	1.63	15%	24th	Looked OK in his rehab, but I’m likely going to wait and see instead of starting him right off the IL… I can understand a lottery ticket stream if you’re desperate
19	Luis Severino	NYY		TEX				30	6.30	1.57	11%	3rd	I’m not cutting him yet, but I’m certainly not starting him v. TEX
20	Patrick Sandoval	LAA	at	COL				70.2	4.08	1.42	8%	27th	I’ve cut him in a lot of spots and the 7 scoreless at KC doesn’t really bring me back, especially since it came w/4 BB… no shot I’d start him in Coors
21	James Kaprielian	OAK	at	TOR				55	6.38	1.64	7%	4th	Don’t get duped by the 2.60 ERA over his L3 as the 1.29 WHIP and 4% K-BB are huge red flags and this matchup is too brutal even if I was buying into him
22	J.P. France	HOU	at	LAD				47.1	3.42	1.20	11%	11th	3 straight QS with a 2.66 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, but just a 5% K-BB dampens my excitement and I can’t really get on board v. the Dodgers
23	Zack Greinke	KCR	at	TBR				76.2	4.81	1.17	15%	15th	The low WHIP might be worth spot starting in better matchups, but the most important part of Greinke’s season is that he’s pacing to break 3000 Ks!
24	Luis L. Ortiz	PIT	at	MIA				37.2	4.30	1.73	4%	7th	Shows flashes when you watch him pitch, but his horrendous 4% K-BB makes him veryyyy difficult to trust
25	Kyle Freeland	COL		LAA				80.1	4.48	1.34	8%	10th	Does his best work at home, but who really wants to start him at Coors???
26	Patrick Corbin	WSN	at	SDP				84.2	4.89	1.58	7%	4th	Put together a run with 6 QS in 7 starts, but has regressed hard since then thanks to 40 (!) hits in his last 5 starts
27	Zach Davies	ARI	at	SFG				31.2	7.11	1.74	9%	6th	No, just no…
28	Luke Weaver	CIN		ATL				57	6.47	1.54	13%	1st	I know I’ve mentioned this before, but remember when he had 16 Ks in his first 2 starts of the yr? He has a 17% K rate in 45 IP since then

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues