Starting Pitcher Chart – June 17th, 2025

June 17, 2025

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

JUMP TO 2-START CHART

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Starter Notes June 17, 2025

RK	PITCHER	GAME	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	2025 wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Robbie Ray	SFG v CLE	x	x	x	81	2.55	1.12	18%	24th	Survived Coors and now has 10 starts of 3 or fewer ER, posting a 2.03 ERA/0.98 WHIP/22% K-BB in 62 IP
2	Spencer Schwellenbach	ATL v NYM	x	x	x	89	3.11	1.00	20%	4th
3	Andrew Abbott	CIN v MIN	x	x	x	62	1.87	0.97	18%	9th
4	Bryan Woo	SEA v BOS	x	x	x	82	3.39	0.98	18%	14th
5	Jesús Luzardo	PHI at MIA	x	x	x	78	4.23	1.40	20%	28th	Tipping was the primary culprit behind the 20 ER in 2 starts; full scale bounce back in a tough matchup v. CHC (6 IP/1 ER/10 Ks) paired w/a non-injury reason for the duds puts him back on the board everywhere
6	Seth Lugo	KCR at TEX	x	x	x	70	3.18	1.15	11%	16th	Handled NYY nicely w/5.7 scoreless though just 2 Ks & 3 BB; TEX should present a much easier challenge
7	David Peterson	NYM at ATL	x	x	x	79	2.49	1.19	14%	17th	Everything is breaking his way of late w/a 1.78 ERA/0.99 WHIP in his L35 IP despite a modest 14% K-BB; newfound control is having an outsized impact but it is a tangible change that says this isn’t all fluke
8	Shane Smith	CHW v STL	x	x	x	68	2.37	1.17	13%	12th	He just keeps answering every challenge and now has B2B Ws while catching StL at the right time (27th in wOBA vR over the L30 days)
9	Casey Mize	DET v PIT	x	x	x	61	2.95	1.28	14%	28th	More reliable than ever before, but still maxing around a #3-4 type so the matchup is a key driver here as he’s not a must-start
10	Matthew Liberatore	STL at CHW		x	x	73	3.93	1.17	17%	20th	3 straight duds, but a good spot to get right; CHW has been better vL of late, but if he can’t find himself here, he could be demoted to pure streamer status
11	Will Warren	NYY v LAA		x	x	63	4.86	1.37	18%	24th	Hard to hold the 7 ER at LAD against him bc it was a remarkably easy skip
12	Michael Soroka	WSN v COL		x	x	42	5.14	1.12	17%	29th	Hasn’t allowed >4 ER in any start, but I’m looking past his ERA at the 1.12 WHIP and 3.55 SIERA; at LAD this wknd makes the 2-step tough to run in weekly formats
13	Zack Littell	TBR v BAL		x	x	86	3.84	1.11	14%	8th	4 solos now leaves him w/a 2.2 HR9 in his L8
14	Ben Brown	CHC v MIL		x	x	69	5.71	1.47	19%	25th	As long as you go in knowing he’s a major risk every time out, he’s not a bad streamer… you just gotta have the stomach for it; his ER in the L9: 6, 0, 3, 2, 6, 8, 0, 2, 6
15	Slade Cecconi	CLE at SFG		x	x	25	4.26	1.34	18%	23rd	2 strong outings at NYY and v. CIN w/11 Ks and 3 BB in 10 IP
16	Jack Leiter	TEX v KCR			x	55	3.88	1.24	7%	26th	Only 3 gms w/fewer than 2 BB makes him super volatile start-to-start
17	David Festa	MIN at CIN			x	22	4.76	1.32	16%	6th	Tough matchup, tough venue, and tight workload restrictions… be careful
18	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI at TOR			x	70	5.37	1.41	12%	7th	5 lefties and a blazing hot Jays lineup leave me scared espec. w/at COL looming on the wknd
19	Chris Bassitt	TOR v ARI			x	80	3.70	1.31	17%	13th	Restrictions have loosened a bit w/ARI as they’re more neutral of late
20	Bailey Falter	PIT at DET				75	3.36	1.12	7%	3rd	He’s been dialed in of late w/a 1.63 ERA/0.97 WHIP but meager 5% K-BB and 5.13 SIERA scream heavy regression is coming and it’s not an “if” but “when” situation
21	Chad Patrick	MIL at CHC				74	3.25	1.26	15%	5th	Not immediately out after his first dud, but this isn’t the spot to jump back in
22	JP Sears	ATH v HOU				72	5.08	1.25	14%	5th	Running a sharp home/road split and HOU is 1st in wOBA vL over the L30; does get a double-roadie next wk but it’s at DET/at NYY
23	Walker Buehler	BOS at SEA				55	5.01	1.38	14%	10th
24	Dean Kremer	BAL at TBR				79	4.99	1.37	12%	13th
25	Randy Vásquez	SDP at LAD				68	3.57	1.40	2%	2nd
26	Cal Quantrill	MIA v PHI				59	5.61	1.50	11%	11th
27	Kyle Hendricks	LAA at NYY				71	5.20	1.32	8%	3rd
28	Antonio Senzatela	COL at WSN				66	7.23	2.03	3%	22nd
29	Jason Alexander	HOU at ATH				6	18.00	2.83	0.00	7th
30	Matt Sauer	LAD v SDP				25	5.68	1.38	12%	19th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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2-START CHART

2-Start Chart for the Week of June 16th

RANK	PITCHER	TYPE	MATCHUPS	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	Pitch+
1	Spencer Schwellenbach	1	NYM/at MIA	89.2	3.11	1.00	20%	109
2	Logan Gilbert	2	BOS/at CHC	30.1	2.37	0.79	32%	116
3	Dylan Cease	2	at LAD/KCR	75.2	4.28	1.30	21%	102
4	Robbie Ray	2	CLE/BOS	81.1	2.55	1.12	18%	93
5	Jesús Luzardo	2	at MIA/NYM	78.2	4.23	1.40	20%	110
6	Andrew Abbott	2	MIN/at STL	62.2	1.87	0.97	18%	99
7	Ryan Pepiot	2	BAL/DET	81.2	3.31	1.14	15%	103
8	Matthew Liberatore	3	at CHW/CIN	73.1	3.93	1.17	17%	103
9	Mick Abel	3	at MIA/ NYM	15.1	2.35	1.11	18%	99
10	Clarke Schmidt	3	LAA/ BAL	55	3.60	1.24	15%	104
11	Will Warren	3	LAA/BAL	63	4.86	1.37	18%	100
12	Lance McCullers Jr.	3	at ATH/ at LAA	29.1	4.91	1.43	17%	92
13	Shane Smith	3	STL/at TOR	68.1	2.37	1.17	13%	100
14	Seth Lugo	3	at TEX/at SDP	70.2	3.18	1.15	11%	96
15	Zach Eflin	3	at TBR/at NYY	53	4.08	1.09	14%	107
16	Casey Mize	3	PIT/at TBR	61	2.95	1.28	14%	104
17	David Peterson	3	at ATL/at PHI	79.2	2.49	1.19	14%	101
18	Ben Casparius	4	SDP/WAS	44	2.86	1.02	21%	106
19	Slade Cecconi	4	at SFG/at ATH	25.1	4.26	1.34	18%	107
20	J.T. Ginn	4	HOU/CLE	17.2	5.60	1.53	20%	102
21	Ben Brown	4	MIL/SEA	69.1	5.71	1.47	19%	99
22	Chris Bassitt	4	ARI/ CHW	80.1	3.70	1.31	17%	104
23	David Festa	4	at CIN/MIL	22.2	4.76	1.32	16%	105
24	Zack Littell	4	BAL/DET	86.2	3.84	1.11	14%	103
25	Chad Patrick	4	at CHC/ at MIN	74.2	3.25	1.26	15%	99
26	Jack Leiter	4	KCR/at PIT	55.2	3.88	1.24	7%	89
27	Michael Soroka	4	COL/at LAD	42	5.14	1.12	17%	105
28	Brandon Pfaadt	5	at TOR/ at COL	70.1	5.37	1.41	12%	101
29	José Soriano	5	at NYY/HOU	79.1	3.86	1.50	7%	111
30	JP Sears	5	HOU/CLE	72.2	5.08	1.25	14%	105
31	Lucas Giolito	5	at SEA/at SFG	39.2	5.45	1.54	10%	102
32	Bailey Falter	5	at DET/TEX	75	3.36	1.12	7%	97
33	Sandy Alcantara	5	PHI/ATL	63	7.14	1.49	7%	95
34	Jake Irvin	5	COL/at LAD	83.1	4.21	1.25	8%	103
35	Randy Vásquez	6	at LAD/KCR	68	3.57	1.40	2%	98
36	Dean Kremer	6	at TBR/at NYY	79.1	4.99	1.37	12%	101
37	Kyle Hendricks	6	at NYY/HOU	71	5.20	1.32	8%	111
38	Antonio Senzatela	6	at WAS/ARI	66	7.23	2.03	3%	102
39	Carson Palmquist	6	at WAS/ARI	22	7.77	1.82	3%	90