Starting Pitcher Chart – July 7th

July 7, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Pardon the very late post on today’s SP chart. If it’s not up the night before, it’s usually up by 8am CT, but I had the podcast and a conference call this morning and I just couldn’t get it done last night.

With the All-Star break on the horizon, I’m long overdue for an SP rankings update, so stay tuned for that!

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Friday, July 7th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Zac Gallen	ARI		PIT	x	x	x	111.1	3.15	1.08	22%	28th	4 ER in each of his last 2 v. TBR and LAA counterbalanced by 16 Ks and a 1.00 WHIP in the 13 IP
2	Luis Castillo	SEA	at	HOU	x	x	x	100.1	3.05	1.07	21%	14th	Does have a pretty sharp home/road split but I’m not sitting him in any format
3	Andrew Abbott	CIN	at	MIL	x	x	x	37.1	1.21	0.88	20%	9th	12 Ks in his first 3 starts had some wondeirng where that dominance from the minors was; 30 Ks in 3 starts since then!
4	Zack Wheeler	PHI	at	MIA	x	x	x	98.1	4.03	1.19	22%	21st	Like so many aces this yr, he has more than the occasional dud (relative to his established dominance) but it’s not actionable as he’s still an easy auto start
5	Bailey Ober	MIN		BAL	x	x	x	76.2	2.70	0.95	20%	8th	After allowing 5 HR in a 3-start run that saw his HR/FB start to regress, he has B2B HR-free outings w/16 Ks in 13 IP
6	Hunter Brown	HOU		SEA	x	x	x	91	3.76	1.25	20%	17th	The rookie righty is fulfilling the lofty preseason expectations and sits at SP42 coming into this start
7	Justin Verlander	NYM	at	SDP	x	x	x	64	3.66	1.19	15%	4th	A 3-run inning in HOU is the only real blemish over his L4: 1.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 19% K-BB in 25 IP
8	Yu Darvish	SDP		NYM	x	x	x	80	4.84	1.23	18%	7th	Still holding a Top 30 K-BB despite the near-5.00 ERA… I can’t see myeslf taking him out of the lineup
9	Corbin Burnes	MIL		CIN	x	x	x	101.1	4.00	1.13	15%	2nd	Hasn’t been the mega ace we expected this yr, but he has a 3.42 ERA since those 10 ER in his first 2 starts and I’m still starting him everywhere
10	Dylan Cease	CHW		STL	x	x	x	96.2	4.10	1.31	17%	6th	Had a huge June (2.20 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 28% K-BB) but then a modest outing at OAK (5.3 IP/3 ER) reminds us he’s not fully back to his ’22 self
11	Charlie Morton	ATL	at	TBR	x	x	x	90.2	3.57	1.44	16%	13th	The ERA, W, and Ks have him at SP41 so if you can eat the hideous WHIP, he’s a set it and forget type
12	Sandy Alcantara	MIA		PHI	x	x	x	107.2	4.93	1.25	12%	16th	If he can push his 62% LOB rate back toward his 73% career mark, there’s a strong 2H on tap, but there’s no guarantee unless the changeup gets a lot better
13	Jordan Montgomery	STL	at	CHW	x	x	x	98.2	3.28	1.24	16%	22nd	Raising his trade profile over the L7 with a 1.66 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 17% K-BB in 43.3 IP
14	Aaron Civale	CLE		KCR	x	x	x	45.2	2.96	1.18	10%	30th	Just a meager 9% since returning from the IL, but can’t argue w/the 3.00 ERA & 1.24 WHIP in 33 IP… great matchup, too!
15	Carlos Rodón	NYY		CHC		x	x	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	21st	He’s back! Only reached 58 pitches in his last rehab outing (0 ER in 3.7 IP) so this could be a sub-5 IP outing even if he’s throwing well
16	Ross Stripling	SFG		COL		x	x	37.1	6.51	1.50	12%	18th	Not sure how stretched out he is with 50 and 24 pitches in his 2 outings off the IL
17	Tyler Glasnow	TBR		ATL			x	36	4.50	1.33	27%	1st	A .400+ wOBA for a team over a month period is absurd… no issues w/anyone skipping this spot
18	Griffin Canning	LAA	at	LAD			x	71.1	4.29	1.16	17%	11th	Rough 2nd inn. spoiled his ARI outing, though he was probably a sit in most spots anyway… I’m a fan, but likely passing at LAD
19	Rich Hill	PIT	at	ARI			x	94	4.50	1.38	13%	25th	Might be without Corbin Carroll, but still not a matchup I’d risk w/Hill even w/their meager output over the L30
20	Daniel Lynch	KCR	at	CLE			x	41.1	4.14	1.23	9%	20th	Turning a corner since the 7 ER Cincy dud? 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in L3 incl. starts v. TBR & LAD, though just a 3% K-BB
21	Tony Gonsolin	LAD		LAA				61	3.69	1.11	9%	3rd	ERA is up nearly 2 runs over his L3 starts (9.42 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 9% K-BB) and I’m not sure it gets much better even w/Trout out for LAA
22	Cole Irvin	BAL	at	MIN			x	31.1	6.32	1.69	10%	28th	Nice 3.44 ERA since his return from AAA despite an ugly 1.49 WHIP… be careful
23	Alek Manoah	TOR	at	DET			x	58	6.36	1.90	2%	20th	It’s a good matchup coming of a 10-K gm in AA, but it’s probably best to wait-and-see… I would pick him up & reserve where available
24	Alex Faedo	DET		TOR			x	26	5.54	0.92	23%	23rd	Excellent K-BB in 5 starts before his injury, though the 6 HRs (2.1 HR9) were an issue
25	Jameson Taillon	CHC	at	NYY				63.2	6.93	1.52	14%	29th	There are no matchups where I’m comfortable starting Jamo these days
26	Trevor Williams	WSN		TEX				85	4.34	1.42	10%	10th	No thanks
27	Cody Bradford	TEX	at	WSN			x	21.2	4.98	1.15	19%	23rd	Threw 2.3 perfect IP on Monday so I can’t imagine this is more than a 2-3 IP outing
28	Luis Medina	OAK	at	BOS				53.2	6.37	1.64	7%	15th	No thanks
29	Austin Gomber	COL	at	SFG				84	6.64	1.56	8%	12th	#NeverGomber
30	Brennan Bernardino	BOS		OAK				26.2	2.70	1.09	18%	30th	The expectation is that this is an opener setup for Brandon Walter (4.74 FIP, 1.62 WHIP at AAA)

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 League