Starting Pitcher Chart – July 6th
by Paul Sporer
July 6, 2023
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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Thursday, July 6th Starter Notes
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | at | BOS | x | x | x | 112.1 | 2.64 | 0.99 | 18% | 16th | The #1 SP in baseball so far per the Auction Calculator; rebounded from velo dip w/96.2 mph last time out |
| 2 | Kyle Bradish | BAL | at | NYY | x | x | x | 78 | 3.58 | 1.21 | 17% | 30th | Probably deserves better than his 4 Ws w/a 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his 7 No-Decisions |
| 3 | George Kirby | SEA | at | HOU | x | x | x | 101 | 3.21 | 1.04 | 19% | 12th | K rate down 3 pts but BB rate was also cut in half to just 2% putting him at SP21 so far |
| 4 | Eury Pérez | MIA | STL | x | x | x | 47.1 | 2.47 | 1.12 | 20% | 8th | Good chance to end the 1H on a high note after the ATL demolition last time out (6 ER in just 1 out of work) | |
| 5 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | KCR | x | x | x | 65 | 3.46 | 1.26 | 16% | 28th | 2+ BB in each of his last 5 starts (11%) has yielded a 1.48 WHIP despite the solid 3.86 ERA | |
| 6 | José Berríos | TOR | at | CHW | x | x | x | 101 | 3.74 | 1.20 | 16% | 14th | A rough 6th inn. spoiled his last outing v. BOS |
| 7 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | CHC | x | x | x | 86.2 | 4.67 | 1.30 | 17% | 23rd | The 5.06 ERA over his L4 hasn’t caused much panic for me as it’s come with a 1.04 WHIP and 20% K-BB | |
| 8 | Marcus Stroman | CHC | at | MIL | x | x | x | 107.2 | 2.76 | 1.09 | 13% | 26th | Not great in either of his last 2, but nobody really expected him to maintain a low-2.00s ERA |
| 9 | Michael Lorenzen | DET | OAK | x | x | x | 82 | 4.28 | 1.17 | 13% | 24th | The perfect remedy after a Coors outing, though the A’s did rip E-Rod in his IL return on Wednesday | |
| 10 | Kutter Crawford | BOS | TEX | x | x | 57.1 | 3.92 | 1.10 | 19% | 5th | Love the talent, but not the matchup so I’m definitely OK playing it cautiously here | ||
| 11 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | NYM | x | x | 90.2 | 4.67 | 1.38 | 9% | 9th | Running the hot hand here where streaming is applicable w/his 2.33 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 20% K-BB over the L3 | ||
| 12 | Julio Urías | LAD | PIT | x | x | 58.1 | 4.94 | 1.23 | 17% | 13th | Hit parade w/23 in L4 (was BABIP’d last time out); OK riding w/him but don’t want to be too stubborn as I was w/Javier… 7% SwStr in this time is concerning | ||
| 13 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | at | CHW | x | x | 88.1 | 4.08 | 1.27 | 18% | 24th | Always a high risk streamer w/his HR issues, but this is a nice matchup given CHW’s 19th ranked HR% v. lefties | |
| 14 | Lance Lynn | CHW | TOR | x | x | 96 | 6.47 | 1.50 | 19% | 19th | His obscene 2.1 HR rate makes him a risky start every single time out despite his 19% K-BB (22nd in MLB) | ||
| 15 | Hogan Harris | OAK | DET | x | x | 38.1 | 5.17 | 1.25 | 9% | 19th | TOR & NYY took some wind out of his sails w/8 ER in 10 IP; I still see some upside & would run him here in deeper lgs | ||
| 16 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI | at | TBR | x | 19.1 | 3.26 | 1.14 | 21% | 29th | If that slider can consistently generate some more swing-and-miss, he could be a sweet summer pickup… he’s on my Watchlist | ||
| 17 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN | CIN | x | 88.1 | 4.48 | 1.47 | 18% | 9th | Walked 3 in bottom of the 3rd during his last start & all of ’em scored… all of a sudden his ERA/WHIP essentially match last yr (-0.02 ERA, +0.01 WHIP) | |||
| 18 | Jack Flaherty | STL | at | MIA | 86 | 4.60 | 1.56 | 10% | 18th | That WHIP terrifies me | |||
| 19 | Luis Severino | NYY | BAL | 40 | 6.30 | 1.65 | 9% | 13th | He’s in the no-go zone for me, though I’m OK reserving in deep lgs in case he can get back on track | ||||
| 20 | Brandon Williamson | CIN | at | WSN | 43.2 | 5.56 | 1.40 | 9% | 15th | I’m keeping tabs on him though he’s not really rosterable anywhere just yet | |||
| 21 | Carlos Carrasco | NYM | at | ARI | 53 | 5.94 | 1.57 | 5% | 3rd | Just 2 ER in 3 of his L4 outings, but he had 2+ BB in all 5 of his June starts | |||
| 22 | Johan Oviedo | PIT | at | LAD | 93.2 | 4.61 | 1.43 | 10% | 15th | Spoiled all the good work of his CHC/MIA starts w/an 8 ER dud v. MIL | |||
| 23 | Spenser Watkins | HOU | SEA | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 17th | Framber pushed to the weekend and Watkins likely spot starting | ||||
| 24 | Jordan Lyles | KCR | at | CLE | 91.2 | 6.68 | 1.30 | 9% | 7th | Finally got rewarded with his 1st W of the season last time out! | |||
| 25 | Jesse Scholtens | CHW | TOR | 27.1 | 2.96 | 1.06 | 6% | 19th | Solid 3.28 ERA in his 6 extended outings (3+ IP), though just a 5% K-BB in the 24.7 IP of work | ||||
| 26 | Shawn Armstrong | TBR | PHI | 15.2 | 1.15 | 1.02 | 18% | 11th | Bullpen game |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
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Perez was “demolished” by the Braves, not the Cards.
It was just a one letter typo—for Atl to Stl.
Whoops, my bad! Fixing now