Starting Pitcher Chart – July 6th

July 6, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Thursday, July 6th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	at	BOS	x	x	x	112.1	2.64	0.99	18%	16th	The #1 SP in baseball so far per the Auction Calculator; rebounded from velo dip w/96.2 mph last time out
2	Kyle Bradish	BAL	at	NYY	x	x	x	78	3.58	1.21	17%	30th	Probably deserves better than his 4 Ws w/a 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his 7 No-Decisions
3	George Kirby	SEA	at	HOU	x	x	x	101	3.21	1.04	19%	12th	K rate down 3 pts but BB rate was also cut in half to just 2% putting him at SP21 so far
4	Eury Pérez	MIA		STL	x	x	x	47.1	2.47	1.12	20%	8th	Good chance to end the 1H on a high note after the ATL demolition last time out (6 ER in just 1 out of work)
5	Tanner Bibee	CLE		KCR	x	x	x	65	3.46	1.26	16%	28th	2+ BB in each of his last 5 starts (11%) has yielded a 1.48 WHIP despite the solid 3.86 ERA
6	José Berríos	TOR	at	CHW	x	x	x	101	3.74	1.20	16%	14th	A rough 6th inn. spoiled his last outing v. BOS
7	Freddy Peralta	MIL		CHC	x	x	x	86.2	4.67	1.30	17%	23rd	The 5.06 ERA over his L4 hasn’t caused much panic for me as it’s come with a 1.04 WHIP and 20% K-BB
8	Marcus Stroman	CHC	at	MIL	x	x	x	107.2	2.76	1.09	13%	26th	Not great in either of his last 2, but nobody really expected him to maintain a low-2.00s ERA
9	Michael Lorenzen	DET		OAK	x	x	x	82	4.28	1.17	13%	24th	The perfect remedy after a Coors outing, though the A’s did rip E-Rod in his IL return on Wednesday
10	Kutter Crawford	BOS		TEX		x	x	57.1	3.92	1.10	19%	5th	Love the talent, but not the matchup so I’m definitely OK playing it cautiously here
11	Ryne Nelson	ARI		NYM		x	x	90.2	4.67	1.38	9%	9th	Running the hot hand here where streaming is applicable w/his 2.33 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 20% K-BB over the L3
12	Julio Urías	LAD		PIT		x	x	58.1	4.94	1.23	17%	13th	Hit parade w/23 in L4 (was BABIP’d last time out); OK riding w/him but don’t want to be too stubborn as I was w/Javier… 7% SwStr in this time is concerning
13	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	at	CHW		x	x	88.1	4.08	1.27	18%	24th	Always a high risk streamer w/his HR issues, but this is a nice matchup given CHW’s 19th ranked HR% v. lefties
14	Lance Lynn	CHW		TOR		x	x	96	6.47	1.50	19%	19th	His obscene 2.1 HR rate makes him a risky start every single time out despite his 19% K-BB (22nd in MLB)
15	Hogan Harris	OAK		DET		x	x	38.1	5.17	1.25	9%	19th	TOR & NYY took some wind out of his sails w/8 ER in 10 IP; I still see some upside & would run him here in deeper lgs
16	Cristopher Sánchez	PHI	at	TBR			x	19.1	3.26	1.14	21%	29th	If that slider can consistently generate some more swing-and-miss, he could be a sweet summer pickup… he’s on my Watchlist
17	MacKenzie Gore	WSN		CIN			x	88.1	4.48	1.47	18%	9th	Walked 3 in bottom of the 3rd during his last start & all of ’em scored… all of a sudden his ERA/WHIP essentially match last yr (-0.02 ERA, +0.01 WHIP)
18	Jack Flaherty	STL	at	MIA				86	4.60	1.56	10%	18th	That WHIP terrifies me
19	Luis Severino	NYY		BAL				40	6.30	1.65	9%	13th	He’s in the no-go zone for me, though I’m OK reserving in deep lgs in case he can get back on track
20	Brandon Williamson	CIN	at	WSN				43.2	5.56	1.40	9%	15th	I’m keeping tabs on him though he’s not really rosterable anywhere just yet
21	Carlos Carrasco	NYM	at	ARI				53	5.94	1.57	5%	3rd	Just 2 ER in 3 of his L4 outings, but he had 2+ BB in all 5 of his June starts
22	Johan Oviedo	PIT	at	LAD				93.2	4.61	1.43	10%	15th	Spoiled all the good work of his CHC/MIA starts w/an 8 ER dud v. MIL
23	Spenser Watkins	HOU		SEA				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	17th	Framber pushed to the weekend and Watkins likely spot starting
24	Jordan Lyles	KCR	at	CLE				91.2	6.68	1.30	9%	7th	Finally got rewarded with his 1st W of the season last time out!
25	Jesse Scholtens	CHW		TOR				27.1	2.96	1.06	6%	19th	Solid 3.28 ERA in his 6 extended outings (3+ IP), though just a 5% K-BB in the 24.7 IP of work
26	Shawn Armstrong	TBR		PHI				15.2	1.15	1.02	18%	11th	Bullpen game

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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JimMember since 2016

1 year ago

Perez was “demolished” by the Braves, not the Cards.

cavebirdMember since 2018

Reply to Jim

It was just a one letter typo—for Atl to Stl.

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to cavebird

Whoops, my bad! Fixing now