Starting Pitcher Chart – July 3rd

July 3, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

FYI: The site is off tomorrow so the Tuesday SP Chart is TBD.

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Monday, July 3rd Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Joe Ryan	MIN		KCR	x	x	x	96.2	3.44	0.97	23%	28th	Great spot to rebound after his 5 HR flop at ATL last time out
2	Logan Webb	SFG		SEA	x	x	x	110.1	3.43	1.12	19%	21st	5 R in the 1st inn. at TOR yielded his worst start of the yr, but he settled down w/4 scoreless
3	Bryce Elder	ATL	at	CLE	x	x	x	96	2.44	1.13	13%	6th	Surprising he has just 6 Ws given his great yr; saddled w/5 June no-decisions despite 2.12 ERA in 29.7 IP
4	Tyler Wells	BAL	at	NYY	x	x	x	92.2	3.21	0.88	21%	30th	Hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in his L6 (2.78 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 24% K-BB); 31% K in L9
5	Blake Snell	SDP		LAA	x	x	x	87	3.21	1.21	20%	16th	Now has 4 straight 10+ K outings and is once again a must-start everywhere
6	Domingo Germán	NYY		BAL	x	x	x	81.1	4.54	1.05	16%	16th	Followed up 7 & 8 ER B2B meltdowns with a Perfect Game!
7	Cristian Javier	HOU	at	TEX	x	x	x	87	3.72	1.17	15%	5th	Javier hasn’t become the AL’s version of Strider as we thought he could but he’s still good & an easy start
8	Braxton Garrett	MIA		STL	x	x	x	81.2	3.53	1.13	23%	28th	Limited to 2 times thru lineup w/fewest 3rd time through batters faced among ERA qualifiers (54)
9	Bryan Woo	SEA	at	SFG	x	x	x	22.2	4.37	1.24	27%	12th	28 Ks in his L4 starts (20.7 IP) with a 2.18 ERA and 0.97 WHIP
10	Drew Smyly	CHC	at	MIL	x	x	x	86.1	3.96	1.29	12%	19th	Has 3 duds (5+ ER) in his L6 but 5 combined ER in 16.7 IP over the other 3 starts
11	Mitch Keller	PIT	at	LAD	x	x	x	105	3.34	1.10	21%	19th	Kinda funny that OAK delivered his worst start in a breakout yr (2.52 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 17% K-BB since OAK start)
12	Miles Mikolas	STL	at	MIA		x	x	99.1	4.44	1.38	11%	20th	Season has gone in waves: 10.05 ERA in first 3, 2.24 in his next 10, and then 6.57 over his L4… solid matchup & venue here
13	Gavin Williams	CLE		ATL			x	12.2	2.84	0.71	13%	1st	Tough spot and Williams has just 2 MLB starts under his belt so I’m probably only starting where I have to
14	Jaime Barria	LAA	at	SDP			x	49.1	2.92	1.18	12%	10th	Strong ratios in a hybrid role but has only reached 5 IP 3x this yr and not since June 7th
15	Michael Grove	LAD		PIT			x	37	7.54	1.59	13%	29th	Could be the fill-in for Kershaw (IL) and his 4.42 SIERA says he’s better than his current ratios
16	Julio Teheran	MIL		CHC			x	41	2.85	0.93	11%	23rd	HR regression came in one fell swoop (4) with a 7 ER dud at NYM; 2-step includes CIN this wknd so be careful
17	Austin Cox	KCR	at	MIN				16	2.25	0.88	12%	27th	Solid matchup, but we haven’t seen enough from the young lefty to trust him (hasn’t reached 4 IP in an MLB outing)
18	Martín Pérez	TEX		HOU				90.1	4.28	1.42	8%	8th	Isn’t doing enough to take on the consistent risk (5.10 SIERA)
19	Luke Weaver	CIN	at	WSN				64.2	6.96	1.61	12%	27th	Hard to have any confidence in any matchup
20	Jake Irvin	WSN		CIN				47.2	4.72	1.49	6%	2nd	Could be some early holiday fireworks here

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

6 Comments

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Skoolboy Jim

2 years ago

Paul, you’re really gonna start Christina Javier in Texas? He’s got 9 walks and 7 strikeouts in his last 4 starts. His last few starts he has gone 4 and 2.1 innings.He’s pitching against the righty smashing Rangers. Something’s wrong here and no way I am starting him. I am benching him and starting Bryan Woo. That said, he’ll probably throw a no-hitter.

Last edited 2 years ago by Skoolboy Jim

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to Skoolboy Jim

With Woo as a backup option, I totally get it. I do have some concerns about recent Javier, but I’m rolling w/him here thinking it’s more blip than problem (perhaps foolishly, though).

I almost certainly could’ve tempered my outlook on him a bit more and stress that Javier isn’t fully himself right now. Bottom line: I support your decision, but still plan to use Javier in the 1 lg I have him (a 12-teamer)

Reply to Paul Sporer

Your concerns came to fruition as he couldn’t even parlay the big lead into an easy W. We need to check in on him for sure.

I’m in 12-team Roto, and I could use some RP for WHIP, ERA ratios. Do you think he’s dropable?