Starting Pitcher Chart – July 30th, 2025
by Paul Sporer
July 30, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.
Wednesday morning: Updated Matthews in for MIN and Alexander in for CHW
Check out my new-ish SP rankings here!
I’ll run an update after the Deadline if there’s a lot of meaningful movement, otherwise it’ll be closer to mid-August.
Starter Notes July 30, 2025
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2025 wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Woo | SEA at ATH | x | x | x | 126 | 2.91 | 0.95 | 19% | 9th | The beauty of having 4 fantastic arms (5 before Miller’s injury) is that their roles can be fluid… this yr, Woo’s the ace with Gilbert right there as a 1a stud while Kirby is a cut below in the 3 role as he rounds back into form while still holding #1 upside and Castillo is more of a mid-rotation IP eater |
| 2 | Logan Webb | SFG v PIT | x | x | x | 135 | 3.38 | 1.24 | 20% | 29th | I don’t see any reason to overreact to the 3-start slump (16 ER in 15.3 IP) espec. as it’s come against 3 division leaders (LAD-TOR-NYM) |
| 3 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX at LAA | x | x | x | 96 | 1.50 | 0.88 | 22% | 19th | |
| 4 | Freddy Peralta | MIL v CHC | x | x | x | 121 | 2.81 | 1.09 | 18% | 4th | |
| 5 | Ryne Nelson | ARI at DET | x | x | x | 90 | 3.29 | 1.02 | 12% | 16th | Supporting cast could be diminished after Thursday undercutting some of his W upside |
| 6 | Clay Holmes | NYM at SDP | x | x | x | 113 | 3.40 | 1.28 | 9% | 24th | Shift to SP has brought a larger K% drop than expected while the ratios are near-equal to last yr’s keeping him firmly entrenched in the rotation across most formats |
| 7 | Mike Burrows | PIT at SFG | x | x | x | 52 | 4.15 | 1.33 | 15% | 22nd | Injuries slowed his ascent and dimmed his outlook but this yr he parlayed AAA success into a solid 52 IP run in the majors so far; the 1.4 HR9 caught my eye though I’m heartened by a 0.8 in his L5; hold after this for 2-step next (SFG again/CIN) |
| 8 | Shota Imanaga | CHC at MIL | x | x | x | 78 | 3.12 | 1.04 | 12% | 11th | Ratios remain strong and ensure he’s a lineup mainstay but we’re now 14 starts in w/an 18% K rate |
| 9 | José Berríos | TOR at BAL | W | x | x | 127 | 3.83 | 1.25 | 12% | 15th | |
| 10 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN at HOU | x | x | 117 | 3.52 | 1.27 | 20% | 2nd | He kiiinda bounced back from his meltdown v. SDP (8 ER) bc while the 5 IP/1 H look great, the 6 BB do notttt! | |
| 11 | Zack Littell | TBR at NYY | x | x | 128 | 3.72 | 1.11 | 13% | 2nd | NYY can & will beat tms sans-Judge (they roughed up Boyle tonight), but they’re much easier to stream against w/out him and it gives me some confidence to take a shot on Littell in spots | |
| 12 | Brayan Bello | BOS at MIN | x | x | 103 | 3.32 | 1.28 | 10% | 20th | ||
| 13 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH v SEA | x | x | 120 | 4.13 | 1.20 | 11% | 9th | Prefer him on the road, don’t mind him at him as his K-BB is the same regardless | |
| 14 | Will Warren | NYY v TBR | x | x | 104 | 4.82 | 1.44 | 16% | 7th | Has 8 Game Scores of 55+ in his L13, but also a 10, 12, and 33 giving him a 4.98 ERA/1.53 WHIP in that time; I’m a bit of a Warren fanboy so I’m holding on but I understand he has fungibility in shallow-medium lgs | |
| 15 | CHW v PHI | 68 | 2.10 | 1.22 | 9% | 8th | |||||
| 16 | Dean Kremer | BAL v TOR | x | 121 | 4.23 | 1.25 | 13% | 6th | Dots a dud in about every 4 starts w/4 in his L16, but he also has a 3.56 ERA/1.17 WHIP/14% K-BB in that time including all the duds so there’s plenty of streamer value here despite the inherent risk | ||
| 17 | José Soriano | LAA v TEX | x | 126 | 3.79 | 1.40 | 9% | 25th | Don’t get too caught up in TEX season wOBA as they’ve surged to 5th in L30 vR and Sori’s meltdowns can erase 3-4 good outings | ||
| 18 | Taijuan Walker | PHI at CHW | W | W | 68 | 3.84 | 1.35 | 10% | 30th | While I am a long-time fan, his skills are a dangerous bet if you’re in need any certainty… could spike a cromulent 5 IP for a dub in a good matchup, though | |
| 19 | MIN v BOS | x | x | 92 | 5.28 | 1.41 | 13% | 12th | |||
| 20 | Nick Martinez | CIN v LAD | x | 121 | 4.69 | 1.22 | 11% | 3rd | 3 straight 5 IP/2 ER Ws (OK, 5.3 in 1 of ’em!) is nice after the 10 ER v. MIA though not enough to eagerly place him in my lineup… schedule doesn’t relent w/at CHC next wk | ||
| 21 | Yu Darvish | SDP v NYM | x | 16 | 9.18 | 1.80 | 3% | 5th | Inconsistent thru 4, failing to reach 5 IP in 3 of ’em as he eases his way into the season; not cutting him after such a small sample but zero issue w/benching | ||
| 22 | Cal Quantrill | MIA at STL | x | 92 | 5.05 | 1.33 | 13% | 14th | Feel like every time I see a Quantrill boxscore, he’s throwing a gem or at least 4-5 solid IP only to see his meager season-long ERA; Apr-inflated ERA w/an 8.10 thru 6 starts, since: 3.82 ERA/1.14 WHIP/16% K-BB | ||
| 23 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD at CIN | 12 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 21% | 11th | He’s up to 3 IP in his L2 so if a few good IP w/some Ks has value, I guess you can run but he’s not getting any substantial fantasy consideration until he’s going 5+ (if that even happens in the regular season) | |||
| 24 | Chris Paddack | DET v ARI | 111 | 4.95 | 1.28 | 12% | 1st | My pipedream of him converting into a nasty RP was dashed as soon as we got news of Olson’s injury, it quickly became clear this trade was need-based; still eager to see what DET’s dev plan is for him given recent success | |||
| 25 | Ryan Gusto | HOU v WSN | 80 | 5.18 | 1.48 | 15% | 23rd | ||||
| 26 | Kyle Freeland | COL at CLE | 101 | 5.24 | 1.52 | 11% | 27th | ||||
| 27 | Miles Mikolas | STL v MIA | 102 | 4.94 | 1.30 | 11% | 13th | ||||
| 28 | Joey Wentz | ATL at KCR | 45 | 5.76 | 1.57 | 9% | 23rd | ||||
| 29 | Dallas Keuchel | KCR v ATL | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 19th | Dallas Keuchel and Rich Hill… I love it, Royals!! | |||
| 30 | Kolby Allard | CLE v COL | 40 | 2.90 | 1.39 | 6% | 25th |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues |
KEY
x: Play him! | W: Chasing the Win
A little unclear who’s starting for the Twins today. I’ve seen both Zebby and Ober i depending on the sources. For now as of 8:25 eastern, MLB’s site has Zebby going
Ty for the heads up!
If it’s him, are you rolling with Zebby against the Sawx in a 12 teamer?
I think so, yes
Looks like it’s officially Zebby – even the Probables Grid has been updated to Zebby
Zebulon, not Zebediah 🙂
(technically, it’s Daniel Zebulon Matthews)
Oh I know. I’ve mentioned in previous iterations that I love calling him Zebediah despite a) knowing it’s Zebulon and b) Zebulon being APPRECIABLY better than Zebediah lol. But I just called him that so much before learning it was Zebulon that it’s kinda stuck