Starting Pitcher Chart – July 2nd, 2025
by Paul Sporer
July 2, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.
Starter Notes July 2, 2025
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2025 wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Gilbert | SEA v KCR | x | x | x | 45 | 3.55 | 0.92 | 33% | 28th | I often mention when a WHIP is portending an ERA jump, but Gilbert is the flip side where that tiny WHIP paired w/the amazing 33% K-BB suggests to me that his ERA has shrinking to do if he continues at this clip |
| 2 | Hunter Brown | HOU at COL | x | x | x | 98 | 1.74 | 0.89 | 24% | 26th | Aces definitely roll in Coors |
| 3 | Sonny Gray | STL at PIT | x | x | x | 93 | 3.36 | 1.09 | 22% | 27th | I know the Bucs are streaking, but obviously Gray is an easy start with major upside in this matchup |
| 4 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI v SDP | x | x | x | 93 | 2.79 | 1.16 | 19% | 22nd | SDP lineup is sneaky bad vL |
| 5 | Shota Imanaga | CHC v CLE | x | x | x | 49 | 2.54 | 1.03 | 11% | 29th | Pretty strong in his return from the IL and gets a great matchup here to stay hot |
| 6 | Nick Pivetta | SDP at PHI | x | x | x | 91 | 3.36 | 1.03 | 21% | 11th | Revenge game! |
| 7 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL at NYM | x | x | x | 16 | 1.13 | 0.63 | 21% | 5th | Let’s hope he doesn’t suffer a Chase Burns Back to Earth-type start, but it is a sobering reminder how hard the big leagues are; Mis has already become a must-start, even in tough matchups |
| 8 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN v DET | x | x | x | 99 | 3.09 | 1.20 | 24% | 1st | He’s not yet an ace but 24% K-BB is pretty ace-like which leaves me starting him pretty much everywhere these days |
| 9 | Clay Holmes | NYM v MIL | x | x | x | 88 | 2.97 | 1.24 | 11% | 24th | Matchup edge gives Holmes the slot above Peralta, but Peralta is the better straight up pitcher |
| 10 | Freddy Peralta | MIL at NYM | x | x | x | 93 | 2.90 | 1.13 | 17% | 5th | NYM is 2nd in L30, but obviously we’re not sitting Peralta anywhere |
| 11 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI v SFG | x | x | x | 98 | 3.49 | 1.07 | 19% | 23rd | Just a 5.06 ERA in his L3 despite a solid schedule (SDP/at COL/MIA) but salvaged by 21 Ks in the 16 IP of work |
| 12 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX v BAL | x | x | x | 72 | 1.87 | 0.87 | 22% | 9th | Shaky in his return off the IL, but obviously not leaving the lineup off 1 bad start |
| 13 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD v CHW | x | x | x | 38 | 3.03 | 1.19 | 10% | 20th | Remains dialed in with another gem en route to his 4th straight W: 1.57 ERA/0.87 WHIP/20% K-BB in 23 IP |
| 14 | Dylan Cease | SDP at PHI | x | x | x | 91 | 4.53 | 1.32 | 21% | 11th | Hard to comfortably pick & choose starts, just kinda have to commit to riding the waves and he still has the 8th most Ks (117) |
| 15 | Ryan Pepiot | TBR v ATH | W | x | x | 96 | 3.36 | 1.15 | 16% | 13th | First truly disastrous start of the yr as TBR pulled the plug after a 38-pitch 2nd inning; back in the saddle despite a capable ATH offense coming to the St. Pete’s |
| 16 | Jack Flaherty | DET at WSN | W | x | x | 84 | 4.80 | 1.23 | 18% | 19th | 1 bad inning in QS last time out but still 4 BB giving him 15 in his L4 (19 IP) |
| 17 | Will Warren | NYY at TOR | W | x | x | 80 | 4.37 | 1.32 | 20% | 17th | Rolling of late (20% K-BB in L5 since the 7 ER dud) so I’m willing to ride the hot hand even a decently difficult spot |
| 18 | Nick Martinez | CIN at BOS | x | x | 94 | 4.12 | 1.16 | 13% | 14th | Return to the rotation was a smashing success (8 1-hit IP) so I’ll take the shot in Fenway, espec. w/BOS in a lull vR (23rd in L30) | |
| 19 | Tanner Bibee | CLE at CHC | x | x | 94 | 3.90 | 1.18 | 14% | 3rd | You know my trepidation w/CHC and Bibee isn’t an ace, but he’s been good of late (17% K-BB in L12) and has been at his best in toughest matchups: 3.32 ERA/1.11 WHIP/15% K-BB v. > .500 tms | |
| 20 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA at ATL | x | x | 96 | 2.79 | 1.37 | 13% | 19th | The annual Kikuchi hot streak that will keep a core contingent of believers coming back again next yr and I get it, we all have our favorites in this pitcher class (volatile high-K arms) | |
| 21 | Mick Abel | PHI v SDP | x | x | 23 | 3.47 | 1.16 | 15% | 20th | Inconsistent since that brilliant debut w/the Ks having evaporated (9 in debut; 9 in 17.3 IP since) so mostly a team streamer right now | |
| 22 | Reese Olson | DET at WSN | x | x | 48 | 2.96 | 1.17 | 16% | 19th | IL return, but it’s tough to give up such a nice matchup so I lean yes, but as always, I totally understand skipping first starts back | |
| 23 | José Berríos | TOR v NYY | x | 102 | 3.26 | 1.21 | 13% | 4th | I’m torn here as a long-time Berríos fan who has B2B 7 IP gems and a 2.16 ERA in his L8, but the 1 dud was a very skippable trip to PHI and even though NYY is chilly of late (17th in L30), feel like we should stick to the plan of curating his toughest starts in shallower formats | ||
| 24 | Noah Cameron | KCR at SEA | x | 51 | 2.79 | 1.01 | 10% | 10th | I know say it pretty much every time he pitches, but it continues to remain true – this schedule is unrelenting for the young lefty w/7 of his 9 starts coming v. > .500 tms | ||
| 25 | Mitch Keller | PIT v STL | x | 99 | 3.90 | 1.22 | 12% | 8th | I sold him a bit short last time out and y’all set me straight in the comments; I still don’t see a ton of upside, but he’s not a last ranked guy on any full slate so that was bad ranking | ||
| 26 | Brayan Bello | BOS v CIN | x | 71 | 3.41 | 1.44 | 6% | 7th | 7 ER dud in only start >3 ER & he went 6 IP all 5 June starts; supporting skills remain light, but he did have a more palatable 14% K-BB in the F4 June starts before just 1 K v. TOR (6 IP/3 ER) | ||
| 27 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN at MIA | W | W | 58 | 4.63 | 1.39 | 12% | 16th | Has strung 3 solid starts together — well, 2 gems & a lucky QS (lucky bc it was 4 R/3 ER) — and gets a good matchup/venue here if you want to take a shot | |
| 28 | Tomoyuki Sugano | BAL at TEX | 88 | 4.06 | 1.25 | 9% | 29th | How we doin’ Cygano fans? 8.15 in L4 with Game Scores of 22, 36, 42, 34; solid matchup, but what are we really chasing here? | |||
| 29 | Didier Fuentes | ATL v LAA | 8 | 10.80 | 1.80 | 8% | 21st | Fuentes – Roupp all have some streamer appeal but their matchup takes ’em out of consideration today; Fuentes’ isn’t super-hard w/LAA but their HR-hitting ways give me pause w/any unproven arm | |||
| 30 | Janson Junk | MIA v MIN | 31 | 3.73 | 1.15 | 19% | 15th | 3 strong outings, 5 ER dud… B2B Ws, 5 ER dud… wanna see a SwStr uptick here regardless of ER results: 7% in L3 after 15% in F4 put him on the radar | |||
| 31 | Mitch Spence | ATH at TBR | 63 | 3.82 | 1.30 | 12% | 6th | Finally gets a start on the road and it’s at the east coast version of his home park | |||
| 32 | Landen Roupp | SFG at ARI | 81 | 3.43 | 1.44 | 11% | 2nd | I know it’s a legitimately good ERA, but that WHIP says it’s headed north and this is just the team that could instigate that move upward | |||
| 33 | Blade Tidwell | NYM v MIL | 10 | 10.13 | 2.44 | -2% | 24th | ||||
| 34 | Sean Burke | CHW at LAD | 81 | 4.22 | 1.42 | 9% | 1st | ||||
| 35 | Trevor Williams | WSN v DET | 79 | 5.65 | 1.47 | 12% | 12th | ||||
| 36 | Austin Gomber | COL v HOU | 14 | 6.14 | 1.43 | 3% | 5th |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues |
KEY – x: Standard Reco | W: Wins Chase meaning we accept some ratio risk for a chance to salvage a dub
Re: The Peralta blurb, the Mets are second in the last thirty in what?
I was wondering that myself but checked and since June 1 they are a surprising second against right handers in both wOBA and wRC+
Sequencing has just pushed them to the middle of the pack in runs. I’d say the pitching has been their biggest problem but that ranking is hard to believe given their record
Yes sorry, it’s in wOBA. I just shorthand it bc the boxes are small and putting “in L30 in wOBA vR (or vL)” every time is a lot, but maybe I can put something in the body text that points out that I will be shorthanding that regularly so when you see a team referenced as ranking “Xth in L30” it’s understood to be in wOBA v. the handedness they’re facing that day
Thanks for the explanation.