Starting Pitcher Chart – July 28th
by Paul Sporer
July 28, 2023
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
—
Friday, July 28th Starter Notes
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | at | BAL | x | x | x | 129.1 | 2.78 | 1.08 | 21% | 21st | Absolutely dialed in right now: 2.59 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 25% K-BB in 55.7 IP |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | at | PIT | x | x | x | 118.1 | 3.88 | 1.14 | 22% | 19th | His 26% K-BB has me unconcerned with the 4.75 ERA in his L5 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | SFG | BOS | x | x | x | 134.1 | 3.48 | 1.12 | 21% | 3rd | Obviously an easy start everywhere, but he’s on another level at home (2.02 ERA/1.03 WHIP) | |
| 4 | Shane McClanahan | TBR | at | HOU | x | x | x | 106 | 2.89 | 1.16 | 17% | 8th | In a bit of a lull (7.02 ERA in L4); Velo, spin, & SwStr are fine… he remains a firm start |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | MIN | at | KCR | x | x | x | 111.1 | 3.15 | 1.29 | 14% | 30th | Rebounded after the 4 BB dud at SEA and now gets a great matchup |
| 6 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | at | ARI | x | x | x | 118.1 | 3.88 | 1.04 | 20% | 14th | K rate down to 20% in L7 after a 27% mark in his F13; still a start w/a 3.05 ERA in those 7 starts |
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | LAA | x | x | x | 121.2 | 3.18 | 1.12 | 27% | 10th | 4 solos last time out after 2 wks off, but still 9 Ks and 0 BB | |
| 8 | Joe Musgrove | SDP | TEX | x | x | x | 85.1 | 3.16 | 1.14 | 19% | 2nd | Schedule is unkind with TEX and then a trip to COL, but I’ll likely start him for both | |
| 9 | Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | NYY | x | x | x | 56 | 6.91 | 1.66 | 16% | 22nd | 1 bad inn. at LAD after he was pushed a bit, but he’s earned some trust | |
| 10 | Cristian Javier | HOU | TBR | x | x | x | 102 | 4.32 | 1.22 | 14% | 25th | Isn’t quite through his funk w/6 BB at OAK (just 2 ER), but I don’t find many sits with him | |
| 11 | Max Scherzer | NYM | WSN | x | x | x | 100.2 | 4.20 | 1.19 | 21% | 18th | HRs are killing him and that’s just not the Nats game so I’m sticking w/him despite the recent issues | |
| 12 | Jordan Montgomery | STL | CHC | x | x | x | 109 | 3.14 | 1.23 | 16% | 20th | Nightmare 5 ER inning at CHC spoiled his great run; still has a 2.26 ERA/1.06 WHIP during the run | |
| 13 | Kutter Crawford | BOS | at | SFG | x | x | x | 71.1 | 4.04 | 1.12 | 18% | 29th | Betting on a rebound after the 4 IP/4 ER v. NYM |
| 14 | Braxton Garrett | MIA | DET | x | x | x | 100 | 4.32 | 1.19 | 23% | 24th | Ugly July has yielded a 7.85 ERA in 4 starts, but the 21% K-BB makes it hard to turn away from him, espec. in this matchup | |
| 15 | Reese Olson | DET | at | MIA | x | x | x | 43.2 | 4.53 | 1.10 | 20% | 20th | Merked by Juan Soto (2 HR, 3 RBI); good matchup here and I’m OK streaming anywhere |
| 16 | Mitch Keller | PIT | PHI | x | x | 123 | 3.73 | 1.16 | 18% | 24th | Blasted in 3 of his L4, the other was 7 IP of 1-hit ball at ARI… still a firm start candidate in most lgs | ||
| 17 | Lucas Giolito | LAA | at | TOR | x | x | 116 | 3.96 | 1.20 | 17% | 15th | Not against a sit here if you want to give him a start to adjust to his new team | |
| 18 | Bobby Miller | LAD | CIN | x | x | 54.2 | 4.28 | 1.19 | 16% | 16th | I’m confident enough to run Miller in most spots even though CIN can get to anyone | ||
| 19 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN | at | NYM | x | x | 96 | 4.59 | 1.45 | 18% | 28th | Always a gamble with his command issues, but it’s a nice matchup | |
| 20 | Dane Dunning | TEX | at | SDP | x | 102 | 3.18 | 1.17 | 9% | 11th | I still worry about this SD lineup even though they’ve underperformed this year | ||
| 21 | Brady Singer | KCR | MIN | x | 108.2 | 5.55 | 1.47 | 11% | 4th | Had 80 pitches thru 7 v. TBR so they pushed him… and he allowed 4 ER! Then 6 IP/2 ER after that keeps him on the radar | |||
| 22 | JP Sears | OAK | at | COL | 111.2 | 4.19 | 1.05 | 17% | 13th | No chance in Coors | |||
| 23 | Brandon Williamson | CIN | at | LAD | 58.2 | 4.60 | 1.26 | 9% | 17th | LA could have a .126 wOBA in the L30 days and I’d still be skeptical starting B Willy | |||
| 24 | Drew Smyly | CHC | at | STL | 103.2 | 4.69 | 1.39 | 12% | 5th | Has been in a helluva rut (7.59 ERA/1.88 WHIP) with the poor skills to match (9% K-BB) | |||
| 25 | Kyle Freeland | COL | OAK | 103 | 4.72 | 1.45 | 7% | 22nd | I can see it as a Hail Mary for the wknd since this is the best matchup you can get in Coors | ||||
| 26 | Adrian Houser | MIL | at | ATL | 63 | 3.86 | 1.51 | 10% | 6th | Running well of late with a 16% K-BB in his L4 starts, but obviously not running him at ATL | |||
| 27 | Tommy Henry | ARI | SEA | 83 | 4.01 | 1.37 | 7% | 26th | Far too volatile to trust even in solid matchups | ||||
| 28 | Xzavion Curry | CLE | at | CHW | 50.1 | 2.86 | 1.13 | 11% | 26th | Usually only goes 2-3 IP and I didn’t see anyone listed as a primary follower | |||
| 29 | Yonny Chirinos | ATL | MIL | 62.2 | 4.02 | 1.24 | 4% | 17th | Just doesn’t miss nearly enough bats to feel comfortable risking it | ||||
| 30 | Touki Toussaint | CHW | CLE | 30 | 4.20 | 1.37 | 2% | 9th | Not on the fantasy radar |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.
I bet you would be surprised to learn that McClanahan has a 4.11 SIERA and a 3.95 xERA this year despite his 2.89 ERA.
ERA has barely moved from 2022 but underlying estimators have really negatively regressed since then.
Not anything actionable, but interesting nonetheless.