Starting Pitcher Chart – July 28th

July 28, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Friday, July 28th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Gerrit Cole	NYY	at	BAL	x	x	x	129.1	2.78	1.08	21%	21st	Absolutely dialed in right now: 2.59 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 25% K-BB in 55.7 IP
2	Zack Wheeler	PHI	at	PIT	x	x	x	118.1	3.88	1.14	22%	19th	His 26% K-BB has me unconcerned with the 4.75 ERA in his L5
3	Logan Webb	SFG		BOS	x	x	x	134.1	3.48	1.12	21%	3rd	Obviously an easy start everywhere, but he’s on another level at home (2.02 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
4	Shane McClanahan	TBR	at	HOU	x	x	x	106	2.89	1.16	17%	8th	In a bit of a lull (7.02 ERA in L4); Velo, spin, & SwStr are fine… he remains a firm start
5	Sonny Gray	MIN	at	KCR	x	x	x	111.1	3.15	1.29	14%	30th	Rebounded after the 4 BB dud at SEA and now gets a great matchup
6	Logan Gilbert	SEA	at	ARI	x	x	x	118.1	3.88	1.04	20%	14th	K rate down to 20% in L7 after a 27% mark in his F13; still a start w/a 3.05 ERA in those 7 starts
7	Kevin Gausman	TOR		LAA	x	x	x	121.2	3.18	1.12	27%	10th	4 solos last time out after 2 wks off, but still 9 Ks and 0 BB
8	Joe Musgrove	SDP		TEX	x	x	x	85.1	3.16	1.14	19%	2nd	Schedule is unkind with TEX and then a trip to COL, but I’ll likely start him for both
9	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL		NYY	x	x	x	56	6.91	1.66	16%	22nd	1 bad inn. at LAD after he was pushed a bit, but he’s earned some trust
10	Cristian Javier	HOU		TBR	x	x	x	102	4.32	1.22	14%	25th	Isn’t quite through his funk w/6 BB at OAK (just 2 ER), but I don’t find many sits with him
11	Max Scherzer	NYM		WSN	x	x	x	100.2	4.20	1.19	21%	18th	HRs are killing him and that’s just not the Nats game so I’m sticking w/him despite the recent issues
12	Jordan Montgomery	STL		CHC	x	x	x	109	3.14	1.23	16%	20th	Nightmare 5 ER inning at CHC spoiled his great run; still has a 2.26 ERA/1.06 WHIP during the run
13	Kutter Crawford	BOS	at	SFG	x	x	x	71.1	4.04	1.12	18%	29th	Betting on a rebound after the 4 IP/4 ER v. NYM
14	Braxton Garrett	MIA		DET	x	x	x	100	4.32	1.19	23%	24th	Ugly July has yielded a 7.85 ERA in 4 starts, but the 21% K-BB makes it hard to turn away from him, espec. in this matchup
15	Reese Olson	DET	at	MIA	x	x	x	43.2	4.53	1.10	20%	20th	Merked by Juan Soto (2 HR, 3 RBI); good matchup here and I’m OK streaming anywhere
16	Mitch Keller	PIT		PHI		x	x	123	3.73	1.16	18%	24th	Blasted in 3 of his L4, the other was 7 IP of 1-hit ball at ARI… still a firm start candidate in most lgs
17	Lucas Giolito	LAA	at	TOR		x	x	116	3.96	1.20	17%	15th	Not against a sit here if you want to give him a start to adjust to his new team
18	Bobby Miller	LAD		CIN		x	x	54.2	4.28	1.19	16%	16th	I’m confident enough to run Miller in most spots even though CIN can get to anyone
19	MacKenzie Gore	WSN	at	NYM		x	x	96	4.59	1.45	18%	28th	Always a gamble with his command issues, but it’s a nice matchup
20	Dane Dunning	TEX	at	SDP			x	102	3.18	1.17	9%	11th	I still worry about this SD lineup even though they’ve underperformed this year
21	Brady Singer	KCR		MIN			x	108.2	5.55	1.47	11%	4th	Had 80 pitches thru 7 v. TBR so they pushed him… and he allowed 4 ER! Then 6 IP/2 ER after that keeps him on the radar
22	JP Sears	OAK	at	COL				111.2	4.19	1.05	17%	13th	No chance in Coors
23	Brandon Williamson	CIN	at	LAD				58.2	4.60	1.26	9%	17th	LA could have a .126 wOBA in the L30 days and I’d still be skeptical starting B Willy
24	Drew Smyly	CHC	at	STL				103.2	4.69	1.39	12%	5th	Has been in a helluva rut (7.59 ERA/1.88 WHIP) with the poor skills to match (9% K-BB)
25	Kyle Freeland	COL		OAK				103	4.72	1.45	7%	22nd	I can see it as a Hail Mary for the wknd since this is the best matchup you can get in Coors
26	Adrian Houser	MIL	at	ATL				63	3.86	1.51	10%	6th	Running well of late with a 16% K-BB in his L4 starts, but obviously not running him at ATL
27	Tommy Henry	ARI		SEA				83	4.01	1.37	7%	26th	Far too volatile to trust even in solid matchups
28	Xzavion Curry	CLE	at	CHW				50.1	2.86	1.13	11%	26th	Usually only goes 2-3 IP and I didn’t see anyone listed as a primary follower
29	Yonny Chirinos	ATL		MIL				62.2	4.02	1.24	4%	17th	Just doesn’t miss nearly enough bats to feel comfortable risking it
30	Touki Toussaint	CHW		CLE				30	4.20	1.37	2%	9th	Not on the fantasy radar

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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GreggMember since 2020

1 year ago

I bet you would be surprised to learn that McClanahan has a 4.11 SIERA and a 3.95 xERA this year despite his 2.89 ERA.

ERA has barely moved from 2022 but underlying estimators have really negatively regressed since then.

Not anything actionable, but interesting nonetheless.