Starting Pitcher Chart – July 18th
by Paul Sporer
July 18, 2023
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
—
Tuesday, July 18th Starter Notes
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Woo | SEA | MIN | x | x | x | 34.2 | 3.63 | 1.07 | 24% | 13th | Has quickly emerged as a full on start as long as he’s in the rotation | |
| 2 | Mitch Keller | PIT | CLE | x | x | x | 117 | 3.31 | 1.12 | 20% | 11th | CLE is tougher of late, but that doesn’t impact my interest in Keller | |
| 3 | Joe Musgrove | SDP | at | TOR | x | x | x | 79.1 | 3.29 | 1.15 | 19% | 16th | He’s been quietly excellent this yr and has gone 6+ in each of the L6 (2.13 ERA) |
| 4 | Bailey Ober | MIN | at | SEA | x | x | x | 82.2 | 2.61 | 0.97 | 19% | 19th | Maintaining that HR suppression will keep him firmly entrenched in the lineup everywhere |
| 5 | Tarik Skubal | DET | at | KCR | x | x | x | 8 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 32% | 20th | He looks excellent so far and I’m putting him back in the lineup everywhere |
| 6 | Aaron Nola | PHI | MIL | x | x | x | 119 | 4.39 | 1.11 | 19% | 23rd | The fantastic WHIP keeps him firmly planted in the lineup | |
| 7 | Lucas Giolito | CHW | at | NYM | x | x | x | 112.1 | 3.45 | 1.14 | 18% | 9th | Does have a sharp home/road split: 4.71 ERA/1.45 WHIP on the road, but still has a 16% K-BB |
| 8 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | TBR | x | x | x | 117.2 | 2.83 | 1.02 | 17% | 14th | The Rays aren’t as fearsome these days and Eovaldi has been incredible this yr | |
| 9 | Bryce Elder | ATL | ARI | x | x | x | 106 | 2.97 | 1.20 | 11% | 15th | I do worry he will face strong regression and that dud at TBR could be the start | |
| 10 | Tyler Wells | BAL | LAD | x | x | x | 104.2 | 3.18 | 0.93 | 20% | 5th | I don’t love starting a HR-prone SP v. LAD, but he’s a lineup staple for me | |
| 11 | Jordan Montgomery | STL | MIA | x | x | x | 103 | 3.23 | 1.22 | 16% | 3rd | Has allowed more than 3 ER just 1x in his L10, posting a 2.53 ERA in 57 IP | |
| 12 | Logan Allen | CLE | at | PIT | x | x | 62.1 | 3.47 | 1.44 | 14% | 28th | High pitch counts have limited him to 7.7 IP in is last 2 outings, but 0 ER and 10 Ks | |
| 13 | Hunter Brown | HOU | at | COL | x | x | 94 | 4.12 | 1.33 | 20% | 20th | Don’t be afraid to sit any non-ace in Coors if you’re worried about the potential flameout | |
| 14 | Daniel Lynch | KCR | DET | x | x | 47.1 | 4.18 | 1.23 | 9% | 23rd | Running a great 2.63 ERA/1.04 WHIP in his last 24 IP, but just a 4% K-BB… still running him v. DET | ||
| 15 | Domingo Germán | NYY | at | LAA | x | 91.2 | 4.32 | 1.07 | 17% | 2nd | Only 1 HR in his L3, but that’s always his biggest risk and it’s heightened v. the Angels | ||
| 16 | Alek Manoah | TOR | SDP | x | 64 | 5.91 | 1.80 | 5% | 8th | Love the gem at DET, but let’s see another couple before we treat him as anything other than a longshot | |||
| 17 | Julio Teheran | MIL | at | PHI | x | 47 | 3.64 | 1.02 | 12% | 22nd | Regression hit hard w/13 ER in his last 11.7 IP, but he still had 9 K/1 BB in the starts; streamable for sure | ||
| 18 | Carlos Carrasco | NYM | CHW | x | 61 | 5.16 | 1.43 | 6% | 24th | Dropped 8 shutout IP last time out and had 11 Ks in the 9 IP before that, so I’m ok taking a shot | |||
| 19 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | at | STL | x | 67 | 4.70 | 1.40 | 15% | 4th | Still walks too many to have any reliability so I don’t blame anyone for passing here and lean toward doing so | ||
| 20 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | WSN | 71.2 | 6.15 | 1.40 | 13% | 17th | Also coming off 8 scoreless last time out, but I’m less interested in gambling here | ||||
| 21 | Taj Bradley | TBR | at | TEX | 61.1 | 5.43 | 1.39 | 23% | 3rd | Too volatile to take a shot on the road against a team like this | |||
| 22 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | NYY | 85.2 | 4.41 | 1.47 | 9% | 4th | Has become a 5-and-dive and can’t be trusted against quality teams | ||||
| 23 | Anthony DeSclafani | SFG | at | CIN | 93.1 | 4.44 | 1.19 | 14% | 6th | Tony Disco the HR Machine going back to Cincy gives me the shivers (1.6 HR in 319 IP) | |||
| 24 | Michael Grove | LAD | at | BAL | 47 | 6.89 | 1.55 | 13% | 10th | Lefties obliterate him & their lineup features 7 lefty/switch hitters | |||
| 25 | Chris Murphy | BOS | at | OAK | 16.2 | 2.16 | 1.26 | 13% | 29th | Putting together a bunch of solid 2-3 IP outings | |||
| 26 | Zach Davies | ARI | at | ATL | 53.2 | 6.37 | 1.53 | 9% | 1st | Almost no one is getting the go ahead at ATL | |||
| 27 | Trevor Williams | WSN | at | CHC | 91 | 4.45 | 1.44 | 10% | 21st | Juice just isn’t worth the squeeze | |||
| 28 | Luke Weaver | CIN | SFG | 73.1 | 7.00 | 1.62 | 10% | 26th | No thanks | ||||
| 29 | Luis Medina | OAK | BOS | 59.2 | 6.34 | 1.61 | 10% | 7th | No thanks | ||||
| 30 | Noah Davis | COL | HOU | 18.2 | 10.61 | 2.25 | 6% | 12th | No thanks |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
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Paul is not respecting his Elder in this post!
I predict Woo giving up 3 HRs with 11Ks tonight.
Woo-tang killa B gonna swarm the zone tonight.
No, but wasn’t a good call to start Woo
Well that’s definitely not true. It didn’t go well, but there was no logic to sitting him in any league