Starting Pitcher Chart – July 18th

July 18, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

—

Tuesday, July 18th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Bryan Woo	SEA		MIN	x	x	x	34.2	3.63	1.07	24%	13th	Has quickly emerged as a full on start as long as he’s in the rotation
2	Mitch Keller	PIT		CLE	x	x	x	117	3.31	1.12	20%	11th	CLE is tougher of late, but that doesn’t impact my interest in Keller
3	Joe Musgrove	SDP	at	TOR	x	x	x	79.1	3.29	1.15	19%	16th	He’s been quietly excellent this yr and has gone 6+ in each of the L6 (2.13 ERA)
4	Bailey Ober	MIN	at	SEA	x	x	x	82.2	2.61	0.97	19%	19th	Maintaining that HR suppression will keep him firmly entrenched in the lineup everywhere
5	Tarik Skubal	DET	at	KCR	x	x	x	8	0.00	0.50	32%	20th	He looks excellent so far and I’m putting him back in the lineup everywhere
6	Aaron Nola	PHI		MIL	x	x	x	119	4.39	1.11	19%	23rd	The fantastic WHIP keeps him firmly planted in the lineup
7	Lucas Giolito	CHW	at	NYM	x	x	x	112.1	3.45	1.14	18%	9th	Does have a sharp home/road split: 4.71 ERA/1.45 WHIP on the road, but still has a 16% K-BB
8	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX		TBR	x	x	x	117.2	2.83	1.02	17%	14th	The Rays aren’t as fearsome these days and Eovaldi has been incredible this yr
9	Bryce Elder	ATL		ARI	x	x	x	106	2.97	1.20	11%	15th	I do worry he will face strong regression and that dud at TBR could be the start
10	Tyler Wells	BAL		LAD	x	x	x	104.2	3.18	0.93	20%	5th	I don’t love starting a HR-prone SP v. LAD, but he’s a lineup staple for me
11	Jordan Montgomery	STL		MIA	x	x	x	103	3.23	1.22	16%	3rd	Has allowed more than 3 ER just 1x in his L10, posting a 2.53 ERA in 57 IP
12	Logan Allen	CLE	at	PIT		x	x	62.1	3.47	1.44	14%	28th	High pitch counts have limited him to 7.7 IP in is last 2 outings, but 0 ER and 10 Ks
13	Hunter Brown	HOU	at	COL		x	x	94	4.12	1.33	20%	20th	Don’t be afraid to sit any non-ace in Coors if you’re worried about the potential flameout
14	Daniel Lynch	KCR		DET		x	x	47.1	4.18	1.23	9%	23rd	Running a great 2.63 ERA/1.04 WHIP in his last 24 IP, but just a 4% K-BB… still running him v. DET
15	Domingo Germán	NYY	at	LAA			x	91.2	4.32	1.07	17%	2nd	Only 1 HR in his L3, but that’s always his biggest risk and it’s heightened v. the Angels
16	Alek Manoah	TOR		SDP			x	64	5.91	1.80	5%	8th	Love the gem at DET, but let’s see another couple before we treat him as anything other than a longshot
17	Julio Teheran	MIL	at	PHI			x	47	3.64	1.02	12%	22nd	Regression hit hard w/13 ER in his last 11.7 IP, but he still had 9 K/1 BB in the starts; streamable for sure
18	Carlos Carrasco	NYM		CHW			x	61	5.16	1.43	6%	24th	Dropped 8 shutout IP last time out and had 11 Ks in the 9 IP before that, so I’m ok taking a shot
19	Edward Cabrera	MIA	at	STL			x	67	4.70	1.40	15%	4th	Still walks too many to have any reliability so I don’t blame anyone for passing here and lean toward doing so
20	Jameson Taillon	CHC		WSN				71.2	6.15	1.40	13%	17th	Also coming off 8 scoreless last time out, but I’m less interested in gambling here
21	Taj Bradley	TBR	at	TEX				61.1	5.43	1.39	23%	3rd	Too volatile to take a shot on the road against a team like this
22	Patrick Sandoval	LAA		NYY				85.2	4.41	1.47	9%	4th	Has become a 5-and-dive and can’t be trusted against quality teams
23	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG	at	CIN				93.1	4.44	1.19	14%	6th	Tony Disco the HR Machine going back to Cincy gives me the shivers (1.6 HR in 319 IP)
24	Michael Grove	LAD	at	BAL				47	6.89	1.55	13%	10th	Lefties obliterate him & their lineup features 7 lefty/switch hitters
25	Chris Murphy	BOS	at	OAK				16.2	2.16	1.26	13%	29th	Putting together a bunch of solid 2-3 IP outings
26	Zach Davies	ARI	at	ATL				53.2	6.37	1.53	9%	1st	Almost no one is getting the go ahead at ATL
27	Trevor Williams	WSN	at	CHC				91	4.45	1.44	10%	21st	Juice just isn’t worth the squeeze
28	Luke Weaver	CIN		SFG				73.1	7.00	1.62	10%	26th	No thanks
29	Luis Medina	OAK		BOS				59.2	6.34	1.61	10%	7th	No thanks
30	Noah Davis	COL		HOU				18.2	10.61	2.25	6%	12th	No thanks

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

9 Comments

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

Inline Feedbacks

View all comments

GreggMember since 2020

1 year ago

Paul is not respecting his Elder in this post!

I predict Woo giving up 3 HRs with 11Ks tonight.

glyn_the_donMember since 2021

Reply to Gregg

Woo-tang killa B gonna swarm the zone tonight.

murraygd13Member since 2025

No, but wasn’t a good call to start Woo

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to murraygd13

Well that’s definitely not true. It didn’t go well, but there was no logic to sitting him in any league