Starting Pitcher Chart – July 11th, 2024
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If you didn’t see my chat today, I just wanted y’all to know that there was no chart yesterday because we lost internet for about 9 hours with a statewide outage for Spectrum service. Thankfully we avoided any bad weather here in Austin so in the grand scheme an afternoon and evening without the internet isn’t the end of the world.
For Thursday, we have some tough spots where you have to decide if chasing the win potential is worth the risk.
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| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK L30/Season | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Skenes | PIT at MIL | x | x | x | 59 | 2.12 | 1.01 | 28% | 18th/6th | |
| 2 | Max Fried | ATL at ARI | x | x | x | 102 | 3.18 | 1.15 | 14% | 9th/5th | |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | SEA at LAA | x | x | x | 111 | 3.72 | 1.18 | 17% | 14th/23rd | |
| 4 | Jack Flaherty | DET v CLE | x | x | x | 89 | 3.24 | 1.00 | 29% | 11th/12th | |
| 5 | Tanner Houck | BOS v OAK | x | x | x | 111 | 2.68 | 1.05 | 18% | 24th/27th | |
| 6 | Aaron Nola | PHI v LAD | x | x | x | 113 | 3.48 | 1.03 | 18% | 7th/3rd | |
| 7 | Justin Steele | CHC at BAL | x | x | x | 79 | 2.95 | 1.00 | 18% | 14th/3rd | |
| 8 | Hunter Greene | CIN v COL | x | x | x | 104 | 3.45 | 1.14 | 17% | 17th/21st | |
| 9 | Nestor Cortes | NYY at TBR | x | x | x | 111 | 3.41 | 1.08 | 19% | 4th/10th | |
| 10 | Kevin Gausman | TOR at SFG | x | x | x | 97 | 4.64 | 1.34 | 18% | 20th/20th | No longer an Auto-Start in all formats, but we’re definitely running his return to SFG |
| 11 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI v ATL | x | x | x | 107 | 4.19 | 1.19 | 17% | 28th/18th | Don’t let the name value and overall record scare you from solid arms v. ATL right now |
| 12 | Albert Suárez | BAL v CHC | x | x | x | 65 | 2.48 | 1.21 | 10% | 21st/19th | Bounced back beautifully from the dud at HOU w/just 2 ER in 12 IP since |
| 13 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN at NYM | x | x | 94 | 3.83 | 1.44 | 19% | 5th/4th | Coming off a 5-BB dud and facing the white-hot Mets leaves a path for some sits | |
| 14 | Landon Knack | LAD at PHI | x | x | 34 | 2.86 | 0.98 | 16% | 6th/9th | Even w/hiccup last time out (4 ER, 4 HR v. ARI), he’s been amazing across 7 starts… just 1 W though, only going 5+ in 4 of the 7 | |
| 15 | Shane Baz | TBR v NYY | x | x | 6 | 4.50 | 1.33 | 20% | 13th/1st | We’re less scared of NYY right now, but Baz’s command will be something to watch all summer | |
| 16 | David Peterson | NYM v WSN | x | x | 37 | 3.58 | 1.46 | 7% | 26th/28th | WSN isn’t the best team to take advantage of his hideous WHIP, but it’s always looming and leaves him susceptible every time out — be careful | |
| 17 | Aaron Civale | MIL v PIT | x | x | 92 | 5.18 | 1.39 | 15% | 15th/28th | New team, same problem… 3 HRs in a 4 ER outing at LAD; matchup & supporting lineup/bullpen are enough to find some starts | |
| 18 | Jordan Hicks | SFG v TOR | x | 90 | 3.47 | 1.32 | 12% | 22nd/17th | A modest 12% K-BB put a damper on his 2.22 ERA through 11 starts so his 5.51 ERA in the L7 isn’t terribly shocking | ||
| 19 | Jake Bloss | HOU v MIA | x | 3 | 4.91 | 1.91 | 6% | 30th/29th | If you’re straight up Ws chasing, I’m OK w/this, but there’s no guarantee he even goes 5 so this is more like a 1/2-x | ||
| 20 | Luis Medina | OAK at BOS | 35 | 4.37 | 1.54 | 4% | 2nd/5th | Intriguing arm has B2B 1 ER outings but still 6 BB and just 8 Ks in those 11 IP | |||
| 21 | Roddery Muñoz | MIA at HOU | 44 | 5.48 | 1.47 | 8% | 10th/8th | ||||
| 22 | Spencer Howard | CLE at DET | 24 | 5.63 | 1.83 | 9% | 26th/24th | ||||
| 23 | Jack Kochanowicz | LAA v SEA | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 25th/25th | Making his MLB debut out of AA; even w/the solid matchup, it’s definitely a wait-and-see | |||
| 24 | Austin Gomber | COL at CIN | 94 | 4.47 | 1.29 | 10% | 23rd/20th |
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but that just means it is a riskier stream as the league gets shallower.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can generally expand these recommendations a bit for points leagues.
Just a note that with the AS Break, guys may have a longer leash the rest of this week as evidenced by the Guardians leaving Bibee in to finish the 7th and throw 109 pitches (previous career high 105, twice last year) despite being down 4-3. Had to make it a little easier decision for Vogt knowing that Bibee has 8 days off to recover. Worked too with Bibee finishing K, weak flyout, K.
Was also curious if anyone is starting both the last game before the break and 1st game after and thus starting “consecutive” games. Per Roster Resource, looks like just Quintana, Gallen and Cease right now. If Marquez isn’t quite ready, I could see Quantrill also. Rogers is probably Miami’s best pitcher but why push it with their record. Sale could theoretically but with Fried having 7 days off it makes sense to come back Fried and then Sale.
Just FWIW