Starting Pitcher Chart – August 16th

August 16, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Wednesday, August 16th, Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD		MIL	x	x	x	100.1	2.51	1.03	21%	10th	He’s just so damn good
2	Kenta Maeda	MIN		DET	x	x	x	65.2	3.97	1.11	22%	24th	Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in 9 starts since returning from the IL
3	Luis Castillo	SEA	at	KCR	x	x	x	143.1	3.14	1.03	22%	4th	KCR’s recent run isn’t enough to sit someone like Castillo
4	Kevin Gausman	TOR		PHI	x	x	x	139	3.04	1.14	27%	18th	Still kinda wild he has a 30 pt. BABIP improvement and is still at .333, sitting 3rd in MLB
5	James Paxton	BOS	at	WSN	x	x	x	80.1	3.36	1.15	21%	11th	Mostly back on track after the dud at CHC despite a high BABIP w/a 2.95 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 18% K-BB
6	Andrew Abbott	CIN		CLE	x	x	x	76.1	2.95	1.11	18%	30th	He’s done his best work at home and CLE isn’t scary at all
7	Aaron Nola	PHI	at	TOR	x	x	x	148.1	4.49	1.14	19%	22nd	We’d obviously start Nola even if TOR was hitting well but it’d be nice to see him take advantage of their struggles
8	Justin Verlander	HOU	at	MIA	x	x	x	107.1	3.19	1.15	13%	26th	Looks great back in HOU!
9	Blake Snell	SDP		BAL	x	x	x	130	2.63	1.28	17%	14th	Has survived a hideous 18% BB w/a minuscule 1.47 ERA in his L8
10	Aaron Civale	TBR	at	SFG	x	x	x	86.1	2.61	1.12	12%	30th	Didn’t make the most of at DET/v. CLE to open his TBR career… great shot to get going here
11	Matthew Liberatore	STL		OAK	x	x	x	45.2	5.72	1.51	6%	26th	It’s exactly the right matchup to see if he can build on the 8 scoreless at TBR
12	Javier Assad	CHC		CHW		x	x	60.2	3.12	1.27	8%	27th	Fully stretched out w/80+ pitches in his L2 so I’m willing to run w/him despite the modest swing-and-miss
13	Jesús Luzardo	MIA		HOU			x	133.2	3.91	1.24	21%	3rd	I don’t mind skipping altogether given his recent issues (10.13 ERA in L3)
14	Ross Stripling	SFG		TBR			x	72.1	5.10	1.26	16%	11th	Looking really sharp since his IL return: 3.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 20% K-BB in 40 IP
15	Jon Gray	TEX		LAA			x	120.2	3.65	1.19	13%	23rd	He’s a scary start w/his inconsistency but catching LAA in a downturn might be worth it
16	Charlie Morton	ATL		NYY			x	128.2	3.71	1.46	13%	21st	His 11% BB is 2nd highest in MLB and makes him a high risk every time out
17	Reese Olson	DET	at	MIN			x	60.2	4.45	1.14	17%	5th	2nd straight start v. MIN after 6 shutout IP and 8 Ks last wk
18	Dean Kremer	BAL	at	SDP			x	132	4.50	1.32	14%	15th	I don’t really trust the home/road ERA split as a reason to roll w/him (3.70 ERA)… he’s just always risky
19	Paul Blackburn	OAK	at	STL				65.2	4.52	1.55	14%	7th	Might have some stream spots down the stretch, not here though
20	Johan Oviedo	PIT	at	NYM				136.1	4.42	1.31	11%	17th	This has been a nice growth season that could pay some nice dividends next yr
21	Wade Miley	MIL	at	LAD				77.2	2.90	1.13	9%	6th	I’m holding Miley, but sitting him for this one unless it’s just pure desperation
22	Slade Cecconi	ARI	at	COL				6.1	2.84	0.95	8%	28th	I’m keeping tabs on him but obviously no chance I’m running him in Coors (unfortunately gets TEX next!)
23	Noah Syndergaard	CLE	at	CIN				72.1	6.35	1.40	10%	10th	Need to see a few good ones before I can trust him
24	MacKenzie Gore	WSN		BOS				117	4.62	1.43	17%	17th	Seems to drop a 5+ ER dud every few starts to erase the good work of his previous 2-3 starts
25	Alec Marsh	KCR		SEA				33	6.27	1.67	11%	9th	No thanks
26	Mike Clevinger	CHW	at	CHC				78.2	3.55	1.30	10%	1st	He’s been good over his L8 (2.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), though that spans 3 months w/his injuries; matchup feels too risky
27	Austin Gomber	COL		ARI				125	5.33	1.46	8%	21st	#NeverGomber
28	Randy Vásquez	NYY	at	ATL				19	1.89	1.05	5%	2nd	Solid in his 4 random starts/extended RP outings, but obviously no shot at ATL
29	Tylor Megill	NYM		PIT				81.1	5.64	1.70	6%	14th	Remember when it seemed like he might be the next big thing? That was fun
30	TBD	LAA	at	TEX				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	6th	Canning was listed but he went 3.7 IP on Monday night

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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David (formerly Sonoma State)Member since 2016

2 years ago

Detmers @ Texas?

Soxfan2

Reply to David (formerly Sonoma State)

Personally, I’m not starting him. Hasn’t gone over 5 innings in a month and has given up 14 earned runs in his last two starts. Stashing on the bench for now

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Too scary for me right now and I say that as a fan of him generally