Starting Pitcher Chart – August 16th
by Paul Sporer
August 16, 2023
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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Wednesday, August 16th, Starter Notes
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | MIL | x | x | x | 100.1 | 2.51 | 1.03 | 21% | 10th | He’s just so damn good | |
| 2 | Kenta Maeda | MIN | DET | x | x | x | 65.2 | 3.97 | 1.11 | 22% | 24th | Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in 9 starts since returning from the IL | |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | SEA | at | KCR | x | x | x | 143.1 | 3.14 | 1.03 | 22% | 4th | KCR’s recent run isn’t enough to sit someone like Castillo |
| 4 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | PHI | x | x | x | 139 | 3.04 | 1.14 | 27% | 18th | Still kinda wild he has a 30 pt. BABIP improvement and is still at .333, sitting 3rd in MLB | |
| 5 | James Paxton | BOS | at | WSN | x | x | x | 80.1 | 3.36 | 1.15 | 21% | 11th | Mostly back on track after the dud at CHC despite a high BABIP w/a 2.95 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 18% K-BB |
| 6 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | CLE | x | x | x | 76.1 | 2.95 | 1.11 | 18% | 30th | He’s done his best work at home and CLE isn’t scary at all | |
| 7 | Aaron Nola | PHI | at | TOR | x | x | x | 148.1 | 4.49 | 1.14 | 19% | 22nd | We’d obviously start Nola even if TOR was hitting well but it’d be nice to see him take advantage of their struggles |
| 8 | Justin Verlander | HOU | at | MIA | x | x | x | 107.1 | 3.19 | 1.15 | 13% | 26th | Looks great back in HOU! |
| 9 | Blake Snell | SDP | BAL | x | x | x | 130 | 2.63 | 1.28 | 17% | 14th | Has survived a hideous 18% BB w/a minuscule 1.47 ERA in his L8 | |
| 10 | Aaron Civale | TBR | at | SFG | x | x | x | 86.1 | 2.61 | 1.12 | 12% | 30th | Didn’t make the most of at DET/v. CLE to open his TBR career… great shot to get going here |
| 11 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | OAK | x | x | x | 45.2 | 5.72 | 1.51 | 6% | 26th | It’s exactly the right matchup to see if he can build on the 8 scoreless at TBR | |
| 12 | Javier Assad | CHC | CHW | x | x | 60.2 | 3.12 | 1.27 | 8% | 27th | Fully stretched out w/80+ pitches in his L2 so I’m willing to run w/him despite the modest swing-and-miss | ||
| 13 | Jesús Luzardo | MIA | HOU | x | 133.2 | 3.91 | 1.24 | 21% | 3rd | I don’t mind skipping altogether given his recent issues (10.13 ERA in L3) | |||
| 14 | Ross Stripling | SFG | TBR | x | 72.1 | 5.10 | 1.26 | 16% | 11th | Looking really sharp since his IL return: 3.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 20% K-BB in 40 IP | |||
| 15 | Jon Gray | TEX | LAA | x | 120.2 | 3.65 | 1.19 | 13% | 23rd | He’s a scary start w/his inconsistency but catching LAA in a downturn might be worth it | |||
| 16 | Charlie Morton | ATL | NYY | x | 128.2 | 3.71 | 1.46 | 13% | 21st | His 11% BB is 2nd highest in MLB and makes him a high risk every time out | |||
| 17 | Reese Olson | DET | at | MIN | x | 60.2 | 4.45 | 1.14 | 17% | 5th | 2nd straight start v. MIN after 6 shutout IP and 8 Ks last wk | ||
| 18 | Dean Kremer | BAL | at | SDP | x | 132 | 4.50 | 1.32 | 14% | 15th | I don’t really trust the home/road ERA split as a reason to roll w/him (3.70 ERA)… he’s just always risky | ||
| 19 | Paul Blackburn | OAK | at | STL | 65.2 | 4.52 | 1.55 | 14% | 7th | Might have some stream spots down the stretch, not here though | |||
| 20 | Johan Oviedo | PIT | at | NYM | 136.1 | 4.42 | 1.31 | 11% | 17th | This has been a nice growth season that could pay some nice dividends next yr | |||
| 21 | Wade Miley | MIL | at | LAD | 77.2 | 2.90 | 1.13 | 9% | 6th | I’m holding Miley, but sitting him for this one unless it’s just pure desperation | |||
| 22 | Slade Cecconi | ARI | at | COL | 6.1 | 2.84 | 0.95 | 8% | 28th | I’m keeping tabs on him but obviously no chance I’m running him in Coors (unfortunately gets TEX next!) | |||
| 23 | Noah Syndergaard | CLE | at | CIN | 72.1 | 6.35 | 1.40 | 10% | 10th | Need to see a few good ones before I can trust him | |||
| 24 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN | BOS | 117 | 4.62 | 1.43 | 17% | 17th | Seems to drop a 5+ ER dud every few starts to erase the good work of his previous 2-3 starts | ||||
| 25 | Alec Marsh | KCR | SEA | 33 | 6.27 | 1.67 | 11% | 9th | No thanks | ||||
| 26 | Mike Clevinger | CHW | at | CHC | 78.2 | 3.55 | 1.30 | 10% | 1st | He’s been good over his L8 (2.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), though that spans 3 months w/his injuries; matchup feels too risky | |||
| 27 | Austin Gomber | COL | ARI | 125 | 5.33 | 1.46 | 8% | 21st | #NeverGomber | ||||
| 28 | Randy Vásquez | NYY | at | ATL | 19 | 1.89 | 1.05 | 5% | 2nd | Solid in his 4 random starts/extended RP outings, but obviously no shot at ATL | |||
| 29 | Tylor Megill | NYM | PIT | 81.1 | 5.64 | 1.70 | 6% | 14th | Remember when it seemed like he might be the next big thing? That was fun | ||||
| 30 | TBD | LAA | at | TEX | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 6th | Canning was listed but he went 3.7 IP on Monday night |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Detmers @ Texas?
Personally, I’m not starting him. Hasn’t gone over 5 innings in a month and has given up 14 earned runs in his last two starts. Stashing on the bench for now
Too scary for me right now and I say that as a fan of him generally